Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 3/9/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Here come all of the "back to life" headlines! ABC's Resurrection opened to a massive 13.9 million viewers and 3.8 adults 18-49 rating. I said last week that there was a very wide range of possibilities here, but this went beyond even what I imagined. It's a big win not just for ABC (which really needed it) but for broadcast TV in general, especially considering how these nets have been increasingly rejected on Sunday nights lately. The show was able to co-exist with male 18-34 powerhouse The Walking Dead because it leaned much more toward the female 25-54 end of the demo (scoring a prelim 5.4 there).
  • Surrounding this big event were nice bounces from the returns of Once Upon a Time (2.3) and Revenge (1.9), though in the True metrics it looks like a much bigger deal for Once; Revenge didn't get that much help from its biggest lead-in in well over a year.
  • Though it won't grab the headlines on this night, Fox had a solid premiere in a very crowded hour from its science documentary Cosmos: A Spacetime Journey (2.1). Though these numbers are worth touting, Fox will probably prefer you look at the cumulative numbers from a simulcast across all most of its cable networks. It averaged a 2.9 across all ten networks, with no individual network cracking the cable top 100.
  • As ABC and Fox soared, CBS was left behind. The Amazing Race (1.8) saw its usual week three rally from a terrible first two weeks against the Olympics and the Oscars, but this point was still down 24% from week three of last spring. The Good Wife (1.3) was also on the low end, though the The Mentalist (1.6) continued to look pretty good at 10/9c. NBC sat out one last Sunday with a 1.1 for four hours of Dateline and The Voice repeats; its big premiere night comes next week.
  • Cable: yet another major success story in the 9/8c hour was the finale of True Detective (1.57), which soared to  nearly a half point above any previous result. And The Walking Dead (6.30) was only down 2% week-to-week, though it had huge competition last week as well from Oscar.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Once Upon a Time (R) 1.2 34% -68% -14% 1.3
Once Upon a Time 2.4 40% +26%+0.5-0.2 3/12 +4% -76% +4% 2.6
Resurrection 3.8 35% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a -71% +90% 3.8
Revenge 1.9 37% +46%+0.6+2.9 2/14 -5% -86% +65% 1.5
ABC:-77%+36%
60 Minutes 1.5 18% +36%+0.4n/a 12/18 -6% +7% -6% 1.6
The Amazing Race 1.9 29% +27%+0.4+0.1 1/3 -24% +27% -21% 2.1
The Good Wife 1.3 18% -28%-0.5-2.1 11/13 -13% +136% -16% 1.5
The Mentalist 1.6 20% -11%-0.2-0.5 4/13 -6% +300% -6% 1.8
CBS:+64%-13%
Dateline Sun 1.1 25% -15%-0.2n/a 2/2 n/a +26% +42% 1.2
The Voice (R) 1.1 35% +10% -37% 1.3
NBC:+17%-24%
Bob's Burgers 0.9 52% -40%-0.6n/a 12/12 -50% +29% +0% 1.1
The Simpsons 1.2 57% -29%-0.5+0.1 12/12 -45% +71% -25% 1.3
The Simpsons 1.6 54% +33%+0.4+0.3 12/13 -27% +45% -27% 1.8
Family Guy 2.2 61% +10%+0.2+0.1 8/12 -19% +100% +22% 2.4
Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey 2.1 46% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +75% -7% 2.3
Fox:+68%-8%
Big4:-48%-2%
The Walking Dead 6.30 63% -2%-0.10
5/5 +10%


Talking Dead 2.36 65% -8%-0.21
5/5 +30%


True Detective 1.57 57% +53%+0.55
1/8 n/a


Shameless 0.85 61% -3%-0.03
5/8 +12%


Girls 0.55 68% +22%+0.10
2/10 +47%



KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

24 comments:

Spot said...

Shocking.

On a side note: Goodbye, Nashville.
Even if Resurrection would follow (rather steep) downwards trajectory of SHIELD, it still would finish season few ticks above 2.0 A18-49 ratings average. And there's really no way ABC would renew 8 dramas. Not even as a spackle. Neither is ABC in such a bad shape media seems to think (and is especially not after this), neither Nashville actually was on-the-bubble (1.5 average with hitting 1.3 multiple times), it was closer to cancellation to start with.

Spot said...

I won't be shocked if Nashville gets a spackle order a la Body of Proof two seasons ago, even though its serialized nature probably hurts that chance. A placement in the fall schedule though is very unlikely now, I agree.

Spot said...

Shock of the season so far IMO. When you do the most shocking rating moments of the season next year, the headline will write itself up as the day in which ABC Sundays was ressurected.

Spot said...

Regarding "Resurrection," weren't many HBO subscribers unable to watch "The Walking Dead" last night because of some sort of glitch? If so, that may have helped "Resurrection's" numbers. It will be interesting to see the numbers for week 2.

I tuned in out of curiosity otherwise I would have watched “The Good Wife.” It was okay and enjoyable but I had the same feeling and question I had with “Under the Dome.” The premise is interesting but do I really want to stick around for what I predict will be an unnecessarily long, drawn out, answer to the mystery? This sort of story is interesting for a while but then I quickly get to the point of just wanting to know what the @#$$ is going on! LOL. But what do I know? “Lost” (which I also didn’t get into for pretty much the same reasons) was a huge hit. Like I said, the numbers for week two will be interesting.

Spot said...

Man, The Good Wife really took it on the chin against all the competition from Resurrection, Cosmos, and The Walking Dead. Can't wait to see the full table to see if True Detective's finale also beat TGW.

Spot said...

13 episodes ready to plug into the first hole vacated by a bomb, I'd guess? As Spot said in the last Power Rankings, Nashville is a far better option than a doomed newbie.

Spot said...

It wasn't quite "all (Fox's) cable networks," as Cosmos didn't air on Fox News Channel (and I'm having a wry smile imagining the response if it did).

Spot said...

The Walking Dead is AMC, not HBO.

HBO Go service crashed because a large number of people wanted to see True Detective Finale that way. I doubt it affected live ratings much, if at all.

Spot said...

Nashville would do better as a short-order drama, but I wouldn't use it as spackle. The best place for it in my mind is Mondays at 10:00 when The Bachelor replaces DWTS. We know Castle is a better fit skew-wise with Dancing, and it gives ABC a chance to say they are all new (almost all) year-round with Mondays.


Fall: DWTS / Castle
Winter: The Bachelor / Nashville
Spring: DWTS / Castle
Summer: The Bachelorette / Mistresses

Spot said...

Ok, did ANYONE see that number coming? I mean, really, I wasn't feeling any heat for Resurrection. At all. Although maybe I should have once a misspelling of its title started trending on Twitter last night.

Spot said...

I can't believe you didn't mention that Bob's Burgers hit a sub 1 series low. And the Simpsons hit not only a series low. (1.2), but a timeslot low (1.6), in the same day!!

Spot said...

Wow at Resurrection! Is it a no. 2 scripted telecast of the week?

Although I didn't think Resurrection could go this big, I had always considered it one of the two midseason shows that may work this year (the other being The 100).

Spot said...

Broadcast yes I think. On cable, The Walking Dead is still certain to beat it.


I also think The 100 can succeed but I would also add About a Boy and Chicago PD (and they are indeed working so far). I had given them both a much higher chance of success than Ressurection. There is also a slim, outside chance for Friends with Better Lives and one of the NBC Sunday shows, most likely Believe.

Spot said...

Just like Sleepy Hollow as I feared yesterday. +______________+


Cosmos did very well for Fox too. NBC shows will probably be DOA next week. Oh well... :/

Spot said...

It's semantics, but with regular football, the Super Bowl, the Olympics and The Grammys, among other formidable Sunday competition now in the rear view mirror, I'm less inclined to say ABC's Sunday was "resurrected" but would opt instead for the more seasonal, "coming out of hibernation" descriptor (even though the Walking Dead still has to eat, too).

Spot said...

All three of you are talking like Nashville is having Castle-like average ratings, around 2.0. I mean, I'd agree with those ideas if Nashville would be at something like 1.75, and I would 100% agree if it would be 2.0 average. But at 1.5 and being 8th best rated ABC drama? Zero chances for surviving.
In today's money, shows at 1.7 or 1.8 are real bubble shows, anything bellow is just a pity renewal. ABC isn't in so bad shape to need money-losing Nashville that soon might hit 1.2s and 1.1s. They now have 6 renewable dramas + Revenge being 7th for syndication reasons. And higher rated than Nashville anyway.

Spot said...

What kind of response would you expect? FNC doesn't air documentaries very often, but it wouldn't be completely out of left field.

Spot said...

I wonder if all those people watched Resurrection because, you know, zombies. And than they will rapidly abandon the show as they discover it's not the typical zombie stuff.

Spot said...

The subject matter would've invited an "even FNC is doing evolution stuff, oh no!" reaction from some of the FNC base audience (and probably invited a(nother) big promotional push from The Blaze).

Spot said...

I thought Cosmos was just about space. If anything, being associated with Seth McFarlane would be more damaging.

Spot said...

While I may concede on the idea that Nashville may be likely to be cancelled now (and even that I am not sure), to say that it has 0% chance of renewal is just naive. ABC can reduce its comedy hours, can premiere significantly less hours, can hold the show for spackle, Ressurection can collapse... Right there, you have 4 possible scenarios that could likely result in it being renewed. I am not saying it has great chances, but it certainly has a chance. Zero chances are for shows like Killer Women or Mind Games.

Spot said...

Wow. I was so off. Resurrection doubled my guess!

Spot said...

I was thinking "It's saying God didn't create the world!" because of it covering the creation of the universe, but yeah, Seth isn't a selling point to that crowd :)

Spot said...

At least a 1.5 would be respectable compared to almost everything else ABC launched drama-wise this season. Their drama slate bombed out so hard the people behind the Manhattan Project would be shocked and awed.

Even if Resurrection holds and pulls off full-length seasons in the future ABC has bigger scheduling holes elsewhere: Tuesdays 9:30 to 11:00, Wednesdays at 9:30 (assuming they are dumb enough to try another hangout comedy post-MF instead of just going with The Goldbergs, which if that came to pass means Tuesdays from 9 to 11 are a blank canvas), and Thursdays at 8:00. If ABC wanted to focus on just those slots, then Nashville may just hang tight. But I also wouldn't be surprised if Revenge goes back to Wednesdays at 10:00 to give the post-Resurrection show to a newbie and therefore leads to Nashville being canceled.

My year-round scheduling suggestion, though, is just based on what I think would be best for the show and not necessarily for ABC's scheduling woes.

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