Friday, March 7, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 3/6/14

  • Week two of ABC's return to Thursday relevance did not go nearly as well as week one; Grey's Anatomy (2.6) and Scandal (2.8) were each down over 15% from big premieres last week. And the return of bomb Once Upon a Time in Wonderland (0.9) showed no minor, irrelevant improvement after a finals uptick.
  • On CBS, while The Crazy Ones appeared to have survived unscathed in its move to 9:30 last week, it took a dip in its second episode in the slot (1.7). It looks even worse for that show considering the preceding three comedies The Big Bang Theory (5.3), The Millers (2.9) and Two and a Half Men (2.6) were all on the upswing.
  • The CW followed up its terrible Wednesday with a very good Thursday, as The Vampire Diaries (1.0) was back into the ones for the first time in three eps and Reign (0.7) bounced from its first dip to 0.5 last week all the way back to its first 0.7 since November.
  • Cable numbers up! Vikings (1.14) was down nearly two tenths in week two. USA premiered Suits (0.76) softly, down nearly 40% from its last regular season premiere, and lead-out Sirens (0.49/0.41) got the network's latest push into comedy off to a pretty slow start.


A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Once Upon a Time in Wonderland 0.9 35% +13%+0.1n/a 4/9 n/a -5% -22% 1.1
Grey's Anatomy 2.6 40% -16%-0.5-0.1 9/13 n/a -15% +126% 2.8
Scandal 2.8 42% -18%-0.6-0.5 11/12 n/a -16% +195% 2.9
The Big Bang Theory 5.3 37% +6%+0.3n/a 5/17 -4% +6% -4% 5.5
The Millers 2.9 32% +7%+0.2+0.3 5/16 n/a +7% -26% 2.5
Two and a Half Men 2.6 32% +4%+0.1+0.2 2/16 -33% +4% -7% 2.2
The Crazy Ones 1.7 31% -11%-0.2+0.1 16/17 n/a -6% -41% 1.5
Elementary 1.8 27% +13%+0.2-0.2 6/17 n/a +16% +13% 2.0
Community 1.0 46% +0%+0.0n/a 6/7 -33% +0% -33% 1.2
Parks and Recreation 1.3 56% +18%+0.2+0.0 2/12 n/a +18% +30% 1.6
Hollywood Game Night 1.1 42% -8%-0.1+0.2 7/8 n/a -8% +10% 1.3
Parenthood 1.2 40% +9%+0.1-0.1 9/16 n/a +9% +20% 1.4
American Idol Thu 2.2 29% -8%-0.2n/a 8/8 -39% -8% -33% 2.5
Rake 0.8 29% +0%+0.0-0.2 6/7 n/a +7% -76% 0.7
The Vampire Diaries 1.0 58% +11%+0.1n/a 10/15 n/a +5% +186% 1.2
Reign 0.7 51% +40%+0.2+0.1 2/13 n/a +40% +133% 0.7
Vikings 1.14 45% -14%-0.19
2/2 -13%

Suits 0.76 42% n/an/a
1/1 -39%

Sirens (10pm) 0.49 47% n/an/a
1/1 n/a

Sirens (10:30) 0.41 52% -17%-0.08
2/2 n/a

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.


Spot said...

I REALLY want Resurrection, Believe and Crisis to do good.

Spot said...

I just find it amazing that after spending the past calendar year being crushed by The Walking Dead, Breaking Bad, Game of Thrones, Bible and Vikings, the networks (save CBS) are really giving their all on Sunday. I have to say that it's heartening that three of the Big Four aren't just ceding ground to cable. Mind you, I don't think it'll work, but you'll never know for sure unless you try.

Spot said...

Aww, TCO. When I wanted you to separate yourself from The Millers, this isn't what I meant. You're making it too easy for CBS to just slot Mom or Millers at 9:30 next November. Stick a newbie after BBT, and there's no room for my favorite new comedy. Truthfully, I don't even think Bad Teacher's performance matters.

ABC falling is no big. Their serialized shows get a boost for premieres and finales.

Spot said...

That's TCO done. And I'm pretty sure we're gonna see CBS just roll with three multicam hours and no singlecams next season.

ABC did what I thought it'd do last week. I guess I forgot the shows' tendency towards premiere/finale spikes.

Spot said...

I'm surprised to see such a difference in behavior between CW wednesday and thursday...

Spot said...

Given that I'm guessing Sunday's Question will involve Resurrection, I'm saying this now with the expectation that I can copy-and-paste it as part of my rationale: Paul Lee has really made it difficult to be optimistic for any new ABC drama this season. Resurrection is pretty much his make-or-break show if he even has a chance to keep his job beyond the upfronts. And while I get the scheduling behind Cosmos (its shared production deal with National Geographic Channel forced Fox's hand on this), the network is hoping that Family Guy's audience can go from fart jokes to something more akin to PBS standards.

As for NBC's effort on Sundays, I just don't know. If Home Edition flopped on Fridays two seasons ago and during its December run on Mondays, why should a similar show perform better? Similarly, while Believe (which is getting Monday preview while you have Sunday preview) is getting the bigger push compared to Crisis, with Resurrection ABC has to go full-throated in promotion and will have something resembling a lead-in with Once Upon a Time. Plus Believe and Crisis have to overachieve just to get to season 2.

Dancing with the Stars may benefit since it's avoiding most of The Voice's higher-rated blind auditions phase, but that inflationary benefit will be sorely missed by ABC. And avoiding The Voice should help Hell's Kitchen. It's smart counterprogramming, and I wouldn't be surprised if Idol gets a tick or two help from it.

Finally, The CW. Now that I think about it, why isn't The CW flipping Mondays and Fridays? I like the pairings of Whose Line & Hart of Dixie and Star-Crossed & Beauty and the Beast/The Tomorrow People, but The 100 would have to bomb out during the in-season run to put Star-Crossed or TTP back in the mix for a second season, which is my main assumption as to why they are staying on Mondays. In that kind of race, TTP is losing against Star-Crossed based on lead-in and compatibility dynamics. But Whose Line is going to outrate both of these shows on a lower-HUT night, so why not give it the extra tick on Mondays and help out HoD, the less-reachy-renewal of its scripted bubble shows? This kind of scheduling makes The CW feel like the inverse of the Dawn Ostroff-era: isolating the outliers on Fridays (male-leaning Smallville and Supernatural, comedy/non-genre Whose Live & Hart of Dixie) while making Monday through Thursday have a sameness to them. The best rationale I have for Whose Line on Fridays is to avoid CBS' comedy block that should overachieve for a few weeks with HIMYM ending.

Spot said...

Considering the narrative of continuing NBC failure has gone on even though they're going to win the season overall in 18-49 and might even win it excluding sports, I suspect that the probable DOA numbers for Crisis will invite much opprobrium from the pun-inclined (see also: Do No Harm).

The Sunday night battle... Well, they're all going for shows with upside and giving them a real shot with heavy promotion. But TWD just outdid any entertainment show episode on network TV this season *against the freaking Oscars*. The only way to win this timeslot game is not to play, and only CBS have worked this out. All three shows could flop, and I think all three will - the only one that can work as counterprogramming is Cosmos, and I can't see an audience overlap with Family Guy that goes much beyond "guys who are or have recently done science in college." That said, I don't know quite where it could've gone on the midweek schedule, and "It's Seth Macfarlane!" probably dictated it going here anyway.

With two massive wild cards premiering this Sunday, I'm hoping for a head-to-head Question. Although Spot's brain is probably gonna be fried setting the line for just a Resurrection Question, let alone throwing Cosmos into the mix.

Spot said...

I think what I'll do rather than a spread is set a line and then "over" wins if either Resurrection OR Cosmos goes over. That should make it more interesting since I think both shows have relatively high ceilings (and very low floors).

Spot said...

I was prepared to write TCO obituary at the moment Elementary starts to actually grow out of it. I just never expected it to happen so soon. So, here it is:
Goodbye, The Crazy Ones.

The worst thing about Rake: With ratings already so low, it might actually do better on Fridays. Not that its meager audience would follow it there, but there's almost no scripted competition in 8 PM timeslot, so maybe people surfing through the channels... Who knows.

Spot said...

FOX's early renewals surprised me! New Girl was an easy one, but Brooklyn, Mindy, and Following seem premature

Spot said...

With W18-34 ratings at around 2.0, Mindy was virtually a lock for renewal. It's a surprise only for people caught in a paradigm broadcast networks are selling A18-49 for *all* of their shows.

Brooklyn 9-9 seems to be TheGoodWife-like "critically acclaimed" renewal. I wouldn't agree those two shows are excellent... but compared to usual formulaic trash broadcasters are airing... yes, looking that way they actually are. Still, I can bet B99 falls at bellow 1.0 A18-49 by December, and is in Friday burn off mode in February at latest. Fox decided to lose some money in exchange for some good PR. That's OK, their money, their decision.

The Following is nominally 2nd rated Fox drama (Sleepy Hollow), 3rd (Bones) if we exclude inflated out of the slot premiere. Seems a bit premature, but perhaps they concluded it won't drop any more than it already did, and renewed it cancellation bear style.

Spot said...

Resurrection - I'm leaning towards a scenario in the middle of the worst and the likeliest, it might be Paul Lee's last attempt to create a hit, I except OUAT to come back around 2.0-2.1 and score high 1s (1.7-1.9) for mostly spring episodes, people quit the show, Resurrection may start on high 1s than drop to around 1.3-1.4.

Cosmos - as a huge fan of Sagan's original show, I hope it does well, but it does not seem to have a broad appeal, expecting around 1.4-1.6

Believe - DOA once it lands on sunday, agree 100% with your prediction.

HK - Idol's paring will help the show to have an average drop, since Idol is fading fast, I'm going a bit lower than 1.84, but definitely better than Rake

Crisis - it's Hostages all over again, it'll score lower ratings than Hannibal by its second episode.

DWTS - it averages something around high 1s and low 2s, same opinion.

The 100 - not so confident with this show, Arrow dropping to 0.7 seems quite alarming, averages around 0.4-0.5 and CW might place it on fridays (but I'm among the ones who believe the HOD will be renewed for syndication purposes since at least performs better than Nikita).

Whose Line - better than anything CW has placed on fridays, but likely around 0.6, the show seems to be weaker against normal competition (even friday shows).

American Dream Builders - no idea

Spot said...

Next season FOX should be wistfully nostalgic for their "killer" ratings this season. No Super Bowl, American Idol, Glee and B-99 to keep the lights on? These early announcements for such marginal performers (I'm being generous), just makes me sad about the state of network television. But fans of all these shows should rejoice.

Spot said...

Brooklyn had a big award, that's understandable. But Mindy and The Following? I guess they do not have many alternatives then...

Spot said...

It's pretty obvious that Mindy had the right viewers, even if it didn't have many of them. I thought they'd wait until it came back before the decision, but I'm surprised only by the timing, not the decision itself. I was going to say that everything else falling apart while it was off the schedule helped lock it in, but said falling-apart shows also got renewed. Mindy might even be the *most* justifiable of the three non-obvious renewals.

Spot said...

Yes, when Mindy went to hiatus, I thought they'll want to sample Mindy more, too. But since then, Dads finished its run at 1.38 A18-49 with terrible 1.1 or so A18-34. While B99 is at 1.56 A18-49, and something like 1.45 in A18-34, and most importantly, trending down. In such a situation, TMP is clearly their 2nd strongest comedy, and no-brainer renewal. I mean, it was always clear they'll renew 2 or more comedies. They would never cut back to only 1 comedy block (Mon to Thu), neither would they surround New Girl with 3 rookies.

Dramas are other story, The Following is 3rd best rated drama, in fact tied for 3rd with Almost Human. It has 30 episodes produced, to only 13 of AH. And it has star power. But it repeats terrible, even for serialized show. I guess they didn't want to pair midseason Monday 8 PM rookie (Gotham, or Hieroglyph if Gotham is ready already for the fall) with another rookie. I understand they want to have Bones (together with Ramsey) for fixing holes that might appear in schedule (if none, so better for them, then Bones stays on Friday), so they plan to put it on Monday only in emergency. It is less clear why they don't want to pair Almost Human with Gotham or Hieroglyph... but as I wrote before, from redheaded stepchild way of scheduling it was clear they don't want it in midseason. They probably already internally cancelled it. And if not, then they want it for summer 2015, with possibility of spring of 2015 (if there would appear s holes all around Fox schedule, which, sadly, is quite possible to happen).

Spot said...

I love this.

"Will a newbie odyssey Resurrect broadcast Sundays? That's The Question for Sunday, March 9, 2014."

Spot said...

This is by far my favorite feature on this sight. It may seem a little sad, but it made my day when I saw you had another best case/worst case up. I would love it if you could do it in the summer. Lots of things to predict: 24: Live Another Day, Under the Dome, America's Got Talent, etc.

But I don't want to waste any of your valuable time. It's your site, who am I to tell you what to do?

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