Wednesday, March 5, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 3/4/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • With everyone finally back in regularly-scheduled business, there was really only one winner: NBC, where The Voice (4.0) was actually up from last week's Tuesday premiere and lead-out comedies About a Boy (2.5) and Growing Up Fisher (1.9) continue to look respectable. I'm not really sure whether we should judge these numbers by series premiere standards, by second episode standards, or somewhere in the middle, but let's see what happens next week. Chicago Fire (1.9) rounded out a night of growth for the peacock.
  • There was carnage on pretty much every other network:
    • CBS followed last week's trio of new season lows with another trio of new lows, as NCIS (2.5), NCIS: Los Angeles (2.1) and Person of Interest (1.7) each inched down again.
    • ABC's Agents of SHIELD (1.8) got walloped across its month-long hiatus (but adjusted up in finals), Trophy Wife (0.8) was more invisible than ever, and Mind Games (0.6) was down by nearly half in its second and maybe final episode as it lost its Bachelor lead-in. And the most promising point in the prelims, The Goldbergs (1.5), dropped in finals, so it was also down.
    • And Fox's Glee (1.0) took a dive in its second week on Tuesday.
  • Cable numbers now in the table: BET brought back The Game (1.6) with a whooping 32% growth on last March's premiere. It's not a total stunner since the show had a huge spike (1.9) to end last season, but it's still very good news. Its long-time BET lead-out Let's Stay Together (0.9) was bumped to 11:00 and matched last year's premiere.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Agents of SHIELD 1.8 42% -18%-0.4n/a 14/14 n/a -23% +16% 1.9
The Goldbergs 1.5 46% -6%-0.1-0.4 13/16 n/a -40% +25% 1.6
Trophy Wife 0.8 38% -11%-0.1-0.1 15/15 n/a -69% -33% 0.9
Mind Games 0.6 32% -45%-0.5-1.7 2/2 n/a -43% -52% 0.8
ABC:-40%-11%
NCIS 2.5 18% -4%-0.1n/a 16/16 -26% -6% -26% 2.6
NCIS: Los Angeles 2.1 19% -9%-0.2-0.1 16/16 -25% -9% -25% 1.9
Person of Interest 1.7 20% -6%-0.1-0.2 16/16 -39% -6% +3% 1.8
CBS:-7%-20%
The Voice Tue 4.1 36% +11%+0.4n/a 1/2 n/a +9% +290% 4.1
About a Boy 2.5 38% +14%+0.3+1.3 1/2 n/a +4% +127% 2.0
Growing Up Fisher 1.9 35% -5%-0.1-0.7 2/2 n/a -5% +111% 1.7
Chicago Fire 1.9 34% +6%+0.1-0.1 11/15 n/a +6% +153% 2.1
NBC:+6%+193%
Glee 1.0 47% -17%-0.2n/a 9/10 -58% -13% -70% 1.1
New Girl 1.5 65% +7%+0.1-0.2 15/17 n/a +7% -58% 1.8
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 1.3 63% +0%+0.0+0.1 16/18 n/a +0% -64% 1.3
Fox:-4%-65%
The Originals 0.8 56% +0%+0.0n/a 14/15 n/a +0% +23% 0.9
Supernatural 0.9 59% -10%-0.1+0.0 13/15 n/a -5% +200% 0.9
CW:-3%+79%
Big5:-10%-9%
The Game 1.63 62% n/an/a
1/1 +32%


Justified 0.90 49% +23%+0.17
3/8 +13%


Let's Stay Together 0.90 66% n/an/a
1/1 +0%


Pretty Little Liars 0.81 50% -16%-0.15
9/9 -31%


Rizzoli & Isles 0.67 25% -8%-0.05
2/2 -22%


Cougar Town 0.55 53% -12%-0.08
9/9 -32%


Twisted 0.40 47% -6%-0.02
4/4 -12%


Perception 0.38 28% -21%-0.10
2/2 n/a



KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

15 comments:

Spot said...

The network's are having that spring feeling. SHIELD was supposed to be the saving grace for the freshman class, and now it's looking pretty weak itself. Goldbergs, on the other hand, looks pretty solid.

Spot said...

Like Go
On, About A Boy and Growing Up Fischer are inoffensive, if not modestly pleasing, half hours that will
be totally forgotten once The Voice lead-in isn't there to cast its
long shadow. A very good Tuesday night for NBC before it hits rock bottom by Thursday again.



CBS, and especially ABC were hit hard last evening. I assumed that nearly all shows across all networks would have been down somewhere in 5-10% range as we approach daylight savings soon. Two weeks of Olympics coverage and mostly repeats might have altered viewing habits a little earlier this year, too, making for an earlier Spring ratings erosion. I am most surprised by the SHIELD decline but I guess absence makes the heart...forget in its case. It was a really strong episode that set the tone for the new Uprising story arc which should might or might not entice some of those Marvel fans who have been critical of the show, back to sample it. In spite of its series low, I suspect SHIELD still won in the 18-34 male demo and DVR viewing should still be very strong for SHIELD. I still believe SHIELD is a lock for renewal for at least one more season and possibly more beyond that if ABC and Marvel can strike that ratings sweet spot somewhere in its comic book fantasy universe and its heretofore more traditional procedural execution. Creating long term science fiction and fantasy genre programming on the big three networks is not an easy task; ABC, CBS and NBC (and even FOX) cannot survive on CW ratings. The Tuesday 10pm hour is truly a death slot for ABC; debuting new shows there is obviously not the answer, especially when the lead-in support is simply not there. There is no flow to ABC's Tuesday night schedule and the ratings reflect this. More importantly, the Voice and the aging but still potent NCIS twins certainly aren't helping to boost ABC's night of all new programming this year, either. Debuting an entire night of new programming was a ballsy gamble that ABC has lost.


And then there is FOX. With another season committed to Glee, there must be a run on antacids among the FOX programming suits. New Girl has fallen hard and the only thing saving Brooklyn 99 with its more than cancellation worthy ratings is FOX' pride and a slim hope that its award winning sitcom will eventually build in popularity. It ain't gonna happen, so if I were FOX, I would cut my losses this year and put it out of it's miserable ratings existence. At least they tried to save it but overall, viewers are just not that into it.

Spot said...

I've been arguing for a flip between Shield and the comedies ever since October, it's probably the easiest-no-brainer-move of the entire season and ABC is standing still letting this happen. This being said, I am strongly against anything that involves the return of DWTS results show. ABC should scale back DWTS as much as possible (once a year, one hour only, etc.) - adding back one hour is completely the wrong mindset and I believe a structural mistake. On top of that, I hate the idea of DWTS and Shield on the same night even more than I hate the idea of DWTS coming back.


In my opinion, and I wrote about it back then, it became clear back in November that ABC would not have the necessary real estate to fulfill all 10 hours of its schedule. I've argued that their best solution would be to do what NBC did last year which was to aggregate those hours on one single day, Sunday, and focus on the remaining hours as much as possible.


They should have moved Revenge to Thursdays to do a GA/Scandal/Revenge block and done OUAT/Shield/Ressurection on Tuesdays. Mixology should have been a summer burnoff along with the remaining of Trophy Wife and The Goldbergs should have taken the post MF slot. Wonderland could have aired alongsite with The Taste during Winter to finish its order and Mind Games could have gone to Sundays to burn off alongside the reality filler that ABC always has (Wife Swap, Wipeout, etc.)

Spot said...

Nonononono, ABC's freshman class. They're possibly 0-for-life this year in dramas.

Spot said...

ABC needs something to fill the Tuesday at 8:00 slot if it moved SHIELD to 9:00. If The Goldbergs and Trophy Wife have already internally been renewed and canceled, respectively, then go ahead and move them to 8:00. But because of Mixology's horrible showing, I'd rather put The Goldbergs after Modern Family and yank Trophy Wife. So, still with a hour-long hole in the schedule, introducing a Results show for this season would at least keep the lights on. I'm not arguing that it become a permanent fixture again, but something to do for the Spring only. And since SHIELD has been self-starting anyway at 8:00, I don't see any downside with a DWTS lead-in other than raising the show's median age.

Spot said...

I'm just curious as to, if they get renewed, what NBC will do with About a Boy and Growing Up Fisher next season. It seems like a waste to keep them post-Voice, but they'll probably collapse anywhere else.

Spot said...

If NBC goes on to win the season in originals, I could see this night showing up in the Top 10 Ratings Moments of 2014 as the night it became clear this was possible.

Spot said...

There's actually a much simpler move than this - just audible DWTS directly into the 10pm hour vacated by Mind Games, and keep the rest alone.

Little-to-no promotional resource expenditure required, and a show that skews like DWTS could probably help the late local news more than it does anything else. It'd be a bone for the affiliates, who must be taking a beating on Tuesdays this season.

Spot said...

I think out of two only About a Boy will be renewed, and I think there's no way NBC would waste The Voice lead-in on it comes next fall. Or any comedy, for that matter,

Growing Up Fisher started with around 2.0, so it should very soon be at around 1.5, and by season end no better rated than Community or Parks&Recreation, and thus not worth renewal.
While About a Boy started better, and although it might be soon at 2.0 (or even bellow), in short 13-episodes season it shouldn't never go bellow mid 1's. Hands down best rated NBC comedy, and renewal of course. NBC isn't going to care for it being thanks to huge lead-in, not in a season all their other comedies failed so miserably.

Next fall I would expect them to have one comedy block Wednesday 8 PM, with some family comedies. Perhaps Cosby at 8 PM, and About a Boy might be at 8:30 PM. And might not be, it's too soon to tell. While on Thursday (at 9 PM to avoid The Big Bang Theory) I would expect some niche comedies. Maybe Tooken (working title of new project by Tina Fey & Robert Carlock) + P&R.

I expect 2 comedy blocks to be exactly there, because I see this schedule:
Mon: The Voice + new drama - again, of course
Tue: Voice / Chicago Fire / Chicago PD - Voice helping two CHI shows reaching syndication
Wed: comedies / SVU / The Blacklist - TB is strong enough to be moved away from The Voice nights ... but not strong enough to go against combined Thursday Night Football and No 1 broadcast drama Scandal

Spot said...

Ah that yes, I agree.

Spot said...

I think what's more annoying is that ABC had the perfect guns last year
to have a powerful schedule all around. They should have kept Malibu
County, How to Live and Body of Proof and they should have green-lighted
Big Thunder.

Anyway, I really feel that said DWTS show would send the wrong message and could even hurt Shield even more. In addition, there is also the chance that the slowdown in bleeding we are witnessing in Mondays this year for DWTS is due to the condensed version of the show so bringing the results show back could hurt it back. I would rather see them plucking something inoffensive like What Would You Do? at 10 and just get it over with. This being said, I still find myself quite tempted to my original idea... ABC has 3 hours that are basically empty or begging for replacement (Trophy Wife, Mind Games, Mixology, Wonderland)... There are also 3 shows on Sundays who are bleeding and didn't need to be. The math is so tentative. But I understand they won't go for it, neither they should this late in the season probably.

Spot said...

I think there is a real possibility (and that it would be a good idea) to move them to 8pm and put the Voice at 9pm to boost the 10pm show (whether that is Chicago Fire or not). That would keep the shows within the voice "aura" but not waste its lead-in. The same rationale holds if only one of them is renewed, NBC could launch another comedy alongside it in the 8pm hour.

Spot said...

Thursdays aside, NBC is quietly having a hell of a season! The Blacklist and Chicago PD are big to moderate hits and it appears that About a Boy and Growing Up Fisher will do well. SVU is having an up season in raw numbers as improbable as it may be (!!), Chicago Fire is also up and has established itself even sans the voice, The Voice is still on fire, Grimm still continues to do respectable business for them on Fridays, Dateline has improved the 8pm hour on Fridays, I am sure the coproductions mean 10pmFriday is no big deal and even Revolution, at its modest numbers, has improved timeslot performance year to year. Hell, even Parenthood has improved timeslot performance year to year. I am curious to see how spring Sundays do for them. If one out of those 3 shows works it would be a wow season for them!

Spot said...

I am pleasantly surprised that TRUE is not hating on About a Boy more. A 2.0 is quite respectable.

Spot said...

I agree with you. NBC is having a hell of a season! I really hope the new Sunday dramas do good as well. You should watch them. I watched Believe and Crisis already and I have to say they're pretty good. Believe has a good twist at the end while Crisis has two really good twists.

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