Thursday, March 27, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Monday 3/24/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • The penultimate episode of How I Met Your Mother (3.5) spiked by over a half point week-to-week and is now up by 0.8 from its low against The Bachelor's finale two weeks ago. It may grade out as one of the show's most impressive performances of the season given all the competition and that we're post-Daylight Saving. This helped the rest of the CBS comedy lineup, but only by a little bit; 2 Broke Girls (2.3) and Mom (1.9) were up a tick, and Mike and Molly (2.0) was up two.
  • ABC's Dancing with the Stars (2.3) was down by 12% in week two, but since it's now being compared against more apples-to-apples episodes, the year-to-year gap closed to just -4% vs. the second spring 2013 episode. And this may be a show that can benefit depending on what happens with CBS after HIMYM is gone.
  • NBC had a down The Voice (3.7) and an up The Blacklist (2.8), though those changes were lessened a bit after finals adjustments.
  • And if it wasn't already over, the final death blow may have been dealt to CDub's The Tomorrow People (0.3). After a decent hold in its Monday premiere, it was down a notch in its second Monday episode. 
  • Cable: the finales of Teen Wolf, Switched at Birth and The Fosters were all up about 10%. Teen Wolf was also on the upside vs. last winter's finale, though Switched and Fosters were way down. And Bates Motel finally stopped the bleeding with a week four bounce-back.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Dancing with the Stars 2.3 20% -12%-0.3n/a 2/2 -4% -12% -5% 2.4
Castle 1.8 23% +0%+0.0-0.3 14/19 -14% +0% -14% 1.8
ABC:-9%-8%
How I Met Your Mother 3.5 49% +21%+0.6n/a 5/21 +30% +21% +30% 3.3
2 Broke Girls 2.3 39% +5%+0.1+0.6 17/20 -23% +5% +5% 2.1
Mike and Molly 2.0 32% +11%+0.2+0.1 13/16 -23% +11% -33% 2.0
Mom 1.9 33% +6%+0.1+0.2 14/20 n/a +6% -27% 1.9
Intelligence 1.1 28% +0%+0.0+0.1 10/12 n/a +0% -48% 1.1
CBS:+9%-19%
The Voice Mon 3.7 37% -10%-0.4n/a 4/5 -23% -10% -23% 3.7
The Blacklist 2.8 33% +4%+0.1-0.4 12/17 n/a +4% +8% 2.5
NBC:-6%-16%
Bones 1.4 31% +0%+0.0n/a 16/18 -26% +0% -26% 1.5
The Following 1.4 44% +0%+0.0+0.0 9/10 -39% +0% -40% 1.6
Fox:+0%-34%
Star-Crossed 0.3 43% +0%+0.0n/a 3/6 n/a +0% -14% 0.3
The Tomorrow People 0.3 49% -25%-0.1+0.0 17/17 n/a -25% +200% 0.4
CW:-14%+33%
Big5:-3%-17%
Teen Wolf 0.92 52% +13%+0.10
4/12 +11%


Bates Motel 0.91 52% +26%+0.19
2/4 -9%


Archer 0.59 79% +33%+0.15
7/9 -18%


Switched at Birth 0.58 56% +8%+0.04
10/11 -24%


The Fosters 0.51 51% +14%+0.06
10/11 -36%


Dallas 0.45 32% -3%-0.01
3/5 -34%


Being Human 0.41 53% -16%-0.08
9/11 -28%


Chozen 0.28 67% +26%+0.06
7/9 n/a



KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

16 comments:

Spot said...

Goodbye, The Tomorrow People. This 0.3 combined with 0.9 for The 100 ... that's the end of the road The Tomorrow People. I know timeslots are very different, and The 100 is bound to go down from that huge premiere number - but the gap is so big.

CW doesn't need TTP anyway (or The Carrie Diaries, for that matter):

5 renewed shows: each 22 episodes.
Flash and Supernatural: Bloodlines each 22 episodes (initially 13).
The 100: 13 or 22 episodes.
The Messengers or iZombie (but not both!): 13 or 22 episodes, pending amount of The 100 episodes order.
Identity 13 episodes.

Friday 8PM: Hart of Dixie: 9 to 13 episodes, then Whose Line Is It Anyway (or mediocre performing Mon to Thu show).
Friday 9PM: ANTM summer to Thanksgiving, in December repeats, in January something dumped from Mon to Thu to make room for midseason premiere.

Spot said...

Last season finale of HIMYM had a 3.4 rating and 11 share against a 3.6 Voice with a 10 share. Kinda weird. I'm hoping for about a 1 point jump next week. Airing an additional half hour will help it

Spot said...

Definitely will be interested in the episode pick-up count for Dixie after Nikita only got 6 this year. I wonder if there's any kind of magic number to "syndicate" The CW's parent companies' (Warner Brothers & CBS TV Studios) shows.

Spot said...

HIMYM is not Friends or Seinfeld, so I definitely wouldn't expect it in 5s or whatever. But high 4s wouldn't surprise me.

Spot said...

Anyone know if CBS is going to break it down by half-hours or count it as one episode? Being billed as a two-parter makes me think the latter, but the Eye could isolate them if they think one or both of the episodes will eclipse its series high (currently a 5.2)

Spot said...

It should at LEAST match the series premiere 3.9 rating

Spot said...

Yes, I'm saying think it would get at least 4.5. While I'm doubting it would actually get 5.0.

Spot said...

HIMYM next week: 4.3/4.7

Spot said...

I know I've said this multiple times, but CBS is so screwed. The only thing keeping their Mondays together is going away, and 2 Broke Girls is nowhere near a good enough replacement. A handful of episodes of BBT will be good enough to patch up fall ratings, but come February sweeps, CBS will struggle to stay in third place.

Spot said...

I definitely agree that Dixie has a leg up against TTP and TCD because of its episode count by the end of its third season and the "syndication" deal like the one The CW has structured with Netflix. I've thought and have had a comment post percolating about how we shouldn't really think of The CW as a "network" per se partly because of these things. I'm just interested how we can compare & contrast Hart of Dixie and Nikita, and how their treatment may influence future shows on The CW.

Spot said...

I forgot about Black Box, and ABC's promotion (heavy on title-dropping, non-existent on content or time information) isn't helping its case. Scandal's shortened season is forcing the network's hand on bringing this summer series into the tail end of the 2013-2014 season, though.

Spot said...

Yeah, I know what you meant.
But you'll remember that I write a lot at days I take a lot of coffee ;)
Sorry

Spot said...

No need to apologize. You were just being thorough. And that's why I enjoy the commentariat here: a insightful, thoughtful group of people trying to prove we are better at this than the networks without the need for personal attacks against someone with a differing opinion.

Spot said...

On a related note, I'm interested to see whether The CW's programming decisions start to be visibly affected by the expiration of their affiliate contracts in 2016. I'm very curious as to what happens to The CW and its programming after 2016.

Spot said...

I never give a lot thought to it. To be honest, I kinda always expected they'll become cable network in 2016, kinda give up. But two years ago came that big bucks deal from Netflix, and this season Pedowitz is righting the ship ratings wise. So there is a hope.

But what they can really do? I don't see them having much of a manoeuvring space.

1. If you think on more aggressively cancelling shows, and in turn have more premieres as some kind of a last-ditch effort: No, they ordered 2 pilots less this season. If they would suddenly increase number of new shows as negotiations with affiliates approach, it only can seem insincere. But it's up to big cahunas really. WB and CBS are going to decide if they want to invest (and risk) more, Pedowitz is only going to choose on what those extra resources are spent.

2. CBS and WB insist on cheap productions. Relatively speaking, compared to big 4. I think it's up to $50 millions for 22 episodes. Probably they're right, because general awareness of a netlet is too small to carry expensive productions. If they'd thought otherwise, wouldn't they change it already?

3. They already partially changed target demo. Dawn ordered only W18-34 series, while Pedowitz orders roughly same amount of series (and pilots too) for A18-49 and W18-34 demos. They won't change it again after only few seasons, especially now that ratings downtrend is finaly stopped.

4. They're pursuing sitcoms, but for two cycles now Pedowitz doesn't like scripts they get. And it's more about diversity of programming, I doubt one comedy block (initially surely only one) can be any kind of a game changer.

5. Both regimes tried to develop some reality shows (duh, they're cheap) besides ANTM, and both failed miserable. Unless they stumble into some hit, it also shouldn't be a game changer.

Spot said...

With Resurrection ending with a 2.51 average out of 8 episodes, That's 95% of your best case, 179% above your worst case, and 36% above your prediction. You predicting it would premiere big and become a good retainer of Once was very good.
Throwing out the Voice episode, ADB is averaging a .7 with 6 episodes, that's almost identical to your worst case.
Believe is only 6% your guess with the Voice episode, without it's 10% off the other way
I'd say Crisis can probably still beat your pick right now as long as NBC doesn't go all Saturday burn off, which is possible as they are preempted 2 weeks in a row now.
I say a pretty good job of picking numbers basically blind. ADB and Believe underperformed everyone's already low expectations, Crisis slightly overperformed in its terrible situation (but not enough for a renewal) and Resurrection overperformed big time.

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