Friday, March 21, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 3/16/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Premiere Sunday on NBC didn't go very well, as Believe (1.5) took a whooping 44% drop in its first episode in its regular timeslot. Crisis (1.6) actually did garner an OK amount of initial interest (more than I expected, especially if you'd told me Believe had a 1.5), but it still likely needs to overachieve in the coming weeks to give itself a shot at a long-term future.
  • On ABC, Resurrection (3.1) is still looking quite promising, down 18% from last week's huge premiere. That's basically an average drop, and that premiere number would've been quite tough to sustain anyway. And Once Upon a Time (2.4) and Revenge (1.7) were even to down minimally, managing to avoid the huge week two drops that their fellow long hiatus shows (Grey's Anatomy/Scandal) experienced.
  • Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey (2.0) remained pretty solid, down just a tenth in week two for Fox (though it might have been a bit steeper drop if not for the week one simulcast). CBS' only notable was a sizable decline for The Mentalist (1.3), ending its long streak of high-1's ratings.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
America's Funniest Home Videos 1.5 30% +0%+0.0n/a 2/14 n/a +30% +3% 1.5
Once Upon a Time 2.4 39% +0%+0.0+0.3 3/13 +4% -2% +4% 2.4
Resurrection 3.1 35% -18%-0.7+0.0 2/2 n/a -18% +72% 2.9
Revenge 1.7 35% -11%-0.2-0.7 5/15 -6% -11% +70% 1.6
ABC:-6%+33%
60 Minutes 1.7 19% +13%+0.2n/a 10/19 +6% +10% +6% 1.7
The Amazing Race 1.8 28% -5%-0.1+0.2 2/4 -22% -3% -22% 1.8
The Good Wife 1.3 20% +0%+0.0-0.1 11/14 -13% +4% -10% 1.4
The Mentalist 1.3 19% -19%-0.3+0.0 11/14 -24% -16% -21% 1.5
CBS:-2%-13%
The Voice (R) 1.4 34% +27% +6% 1.4
Believe 1.5 29% -44%-1.2-2.3 2/2 n/a +43% -12% 1.6
Crisis 1.6 31% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +39% -16% 1.8
NBC:+34%-17%
Bob's Burgers 1.1 57% +22%+0.2n/a 12/13 -35% +22% +57% 1.2
American Dad! 1.4 66% -7%-0.1-0.9 12/12 n/a +17% +8% 1.5
The Simpsons 1.9 60% +19%+0.3+0.2 9/14 -14% +19% -14% 1.9
Family Guy 2.3 63% +5%+0.1+0.3 8/13 -4% +5% +21% 2.3
Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey 2.0 51% -5%-0.1+0.1 2/2 n/a -5% -2% 2.0
Fox:+6%+5%
Big4:+4%+1%
The Walking Dead 6.36 63% +1%+0.06
5/6 +15%


Talking Dead 2.82 66% +19%+0.46
2/6 +50%


Shameless 0.80 59% -6%-0.05
7/9 -5%


Girls 0.40 71% -27%-0.15
9/11 n/a


House of Lies 0.33 58% n/a+0.33
7/9 -9%



KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

20 comments:

Spot said...

CBS still managed last place at 9 & 10.
I'm going to be interested at Resurrection vs. Shield week by week. Shield week 2 got a 3.3; how soon will it be before Rez is ahead of it for an equivalent ep?

Spot said...

FOX comdies all improved vs. last week. Bob's Burgers was up. American Dad! was technically down, but up for the ill advised Simpsons episode last week. The Simpsons were up. Family Guy was. Cosmos being down is a little disap

Spot said...

I'd love to see the W18-34 and M18-34 comparisons. That'd be something, as they skew very differently

Spot said...

I don't believe it - pending adjustments, I called the Believe collapse right and *still* lost The Question.

Spot said...

Educational programming is for the most part, nonexistent on network television so I should be heartened that Cosmos still has a pulse. But, honestly, it just feels so wrong and disingenuous to me that the parent company of FOX, which is so creationism-friendly and anti-science overall, would air something that is legitimate science on their broadcast network.

Spot said...

It's all good. We'll never be able to come up with a renewal formula for those critical favorites/ratings challenged shows like B-99, The Good Wife, Parks & Rec and Community whose renewals completely defy the math but seem to be based solely on the whim of the network and forces not always readily apparent to all of us ratings sleuths out there. I expect the number of these "surprise", "pity" and "pride" renewals to only accelerate as the networks struggle to adapt to the ever changing world of viewing options for a now highly mobile coach potato audience.

If I'm not mistaken, didn't the scary brilliant / freakishly evolved, Nate Silver leave the NY Times to work his magic solely on sports at ESPN or am I imagining that?

Spot said...

Basically, you're saying if show, for example, gets 2.0 A18-49, but it's A18-34 is at least 71% of it's A18-49 (1.43+ A18-34), then it gets some "premium" for "youngness". You're proving it by middle point of between A18-34 and A18-49 ratings (hybrid) is correlating better than each of those ratings alone. Also, you're saying if show is actually at less than 1.41 A18-34, then it's "punished", gets lower ad rates. I understood well, no?

If so, then I can agree in principle. But I think line is much higher than 71%. I mean, if premium was 30%?, why wouldn't broadcasters order much more A18-34 oriented shows?

And I don't agree show with 1.41- A18-34 should be looked through hybrid number. I think A18-49 of such a show should be taken for its face value.

What I absolutely cannot agree is: 2.0 A18-34 consisting of 2.0 W18-34 and 2.0 being equally valuable as the one consisting of 2.5 W18-34 and 1.5 M18-34 (or 1.5 and 2.5). That simply goes against logic.

Spot said...

Competely off topic
Spot,
Two and a Half Men was just recently renewed after being down 42% year to year. Has any other show suffered such a steep drop in a single season and still been renewed before?

Spot said...

Believe hit the low-to-mid 1's I pegged it for. But I did not see Crisis exceeding Believe's numbers; I expected to see the 10:00 factor kick in.

Spot said...

Funny you mentioned this today - FiveThirtyEight just got relaunched. Can't remember if ESPN were the partners for this, but basically it's now going to be covering a large mix of topics through a data-driven perspective, rather than the former focus on politics with a side of sport.

I'd love to see one of his new team cover TV ratings, even briefly in upfronts week.

Spot said...

Certainly you'd expect certain advertisers to target specific skew by gender as well as age - there's enough gendered products still out there, like it or not.

So I would agree that between two equally rated shows, of which one had a typical gender skew for broadcast and the other didn't, the latter would have an ad rate edge. But this would be reliant on a specific few advertisers, or at least a specific few sectors, and A18-34 looks like the most important number to get a hold of rather than M18-34 or W18-34.

Spot said...

CSI: NY was renewed after it's Friday move after dropping by 42%. I know that Friday is obviously a worse situation, but being moved away from TBBT is probably a comparable move. Fringe was also down 42% in it's move away from Idol in season 2. There are probably other shows that moved to Fridays or away from a big lead in that got renewed despite huge, yet expected, drops.

Spot said...

I don't think many of us saw Crisis building from Believe. I certainly didn't.

Spot said...

So, because you cannot explain some network decisions by looking into A18-49 only, you'd simply replace it with A18-34.
OK, let's take this example then - A18-34 last original episode: NCIS 1.2, NCIS:LA 1.0, Person of Interet 0.7.
By your logic, those shows would be cancelled in a blink of an eye. If you still cannot see absurdity of your idea, there's no help.
It's simple, and I explained it above - to each show its target demo, and everything is clear.

Spot said...

What are the other 90% of Americans doing?

Spot said...

I'm probably being overly picky, but I don't think any of the four shows you mentioned were ever huge leap renewals. All four of them have stuck around just by being not the worst rated shows on their network. Parks and Community seem poorly rated, but have outlasted over a dozen bigger sitcom bombs during their life. I think there is something to 18-34, but the idea that a network will cancel a show that's making money for them over a show that does not but critics like, is pretty laughable. For some reason, in retrospect people pump up these 'surprise' renewals, but at the time they're never this surprising (except maybe Body of Proof).

Spot said...

I think there are some non-ratings related reasons (read: The Big Bang Theory/Chuck Lorre connection) 2.5 Men was renewed. But CBS' hand was kind of forced on this with The Crazy Ones not working out, HIMYM ending, and the continued weakening on Monday nights. I am a little surprised that CBS announced a pick-up this early, but since it's unlikely that both Friends with Better Lives and Bad Teacher will be out of the box hits the Eye thinks that the sitcom's got another year in it.

Spot said...

I only went back to like the mid-2000s and may have missed something, but the only one I can find that's bigger is Nikita season two (-44%). And then there are the two -42%'s that Mitchell pointed out. Another noteworthy one for CBS purposes is The New Adventures of Old Christine, which was -41% in its move to Wednesday and got one more season.

Spot said...

If renewed (and yes, that's a big if, but a still possible one), Revolution may be worst than those 42%. I currently have it at 48%, but the late season comparisons will be far more favorable.

Spot said...

Honestly, w/ the most recent ep hitting a 1.2 while the show was hitting 1.8-2.0 towards the end of last year, I see it still be stuck in the -33 to -40% range, which isn't that much more favorable. Probably not enough to drag it from -47 (the y2y on the Vault page) down to -42.

Post a Comment

Newer Post Older Post Home
© SpottedRatings.com 2009-2016. All Rights Reserved.