Tuesday, March 4, 2014

First Two Weeks, Star-Crossed


WEEK ONE
You could pretty much tell where the Star-Crossed story was headed based on how the CW scheduled it. Not only was it put in a lead-off role on broadcast TV's most competitive night (Monday), but it had to premiere opposite the Winter Olympics. The premiere scored 1.28 million viewers and a 0.45 demo, which was at least a bit of an improvement on what Hart of Dixie had done in the slot for most of the season. Given the circumstances, it wasn't a total disaster, but the chances of survival didn't look high. And it didn't resonate in the CDub's younger target demos, notching just a 0.3 A18-34. (Hart has had a mix of 0.3's and 0.4's this season.)

WEEK TWO
In week two, the Olympics went away, but things didn't get much easier as NBC premiered The Voice and CBS brought back How I Met Your Mother. And Star-Crossed did not benefit, dropping 25% to a 0.34 rating among 18-49 (and a 0.2 A18-34). This put it behind most (or, in 18-34, all) of Hart's Monday results.

PROGNOSIS
Whether or not you think Hart of Dixie is a renewal lock for non-ratings reasons, we can probably agree that it's no better than a bubble show in terms of pure ratings strength. So underachieving that standard in the timeslot does not bode well. The CW may end up making a surprise renewal out of its lower-end shows, but there's no good reason to believe Star-Crossed will be the one. Cancel.

"First Two Weeks" is an ongoing experiment to see how often a new scripted show's fate can be predicted by the very earliest data. Here are the picks and lineups for every show this season.

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