Tuesday, March 4, 2014

First Two Weeks, Star-Crossed

You could pretty much tell where the Star-Crossed story was headed based on how the CW scheduled it. Not only was it put in a lead-off role on broadcast TV's most competitive night (Monday), but it had to premiere opposite the Winter Olympics. The premiere scored 1.28 million viewers and a 0.45 demo, which was at least a bit of an improvement on what Hart of Dixie had done in the slot for most of the season. Given the circumstances, it wasn't a total disaster, but the chances of survival didn't look high. And it didn't resonate in the CDub's younger target demos, notching just a 0.3 A18-34. (Hart has had a mix of 0.3's and 0.4's this season.)

In week two, the Olympics went away, but things didn't get much easier as NBC premiered The Voice and CBS brought back How I Met Your Mother. And Star-Crossed did not benefit, dropping 25% to a 0.34 rating among 18-49 (and a 0.2 A18-34). This put it behind most (or, in 18-34, all) of Hart's Monday results.

Whether or not you think Hart of Dixie is a renewal lock for non-ratings reasons, we can probably agree that it's no better than a bubble show in terms of pure ratings strength. So underachieving that standard in the timeslot does not bode well. The CW may end up making a surprise renewal out of its lower-end shows, but there's no good reason to believe Star-Crossed will be the one. Cancel.

"First Two Weeks" is an ongoing experiment to see how often a new scripted show's fate can be predicted by the very earliest data. Here are the picks and lineups for every show this season.

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