Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 5/21/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• It's been a season of many embarrassments for American Idol, but the finale (2.6) brought a little redemption. (Provided you don't think it's an embarrassment that people are raving over an Idol finale rating in the mid-2's.) At least on a percentage basis, this was pretty much a vintage Idol finale spike, up by 24% from last week's final performance Wednesday and by over 50% from the deflated Tuesday performance finale. It was 28% behind last season's finale, which is one of the show's better recent year-to-year points, but last year's finale faced piles of competition (including The Big Bang Theory and the series finale of The Office).

• After finals factored in the last 13 minutes, Survivor (2.6) adjusted up to tie Idol in the reality duel. Being even week-to-week would normally be a bit disappointing, but this show typically hasn't generated much additional finale interest in recent seasons. Its audience is its audience, start to finish. This was a single tenth below last spring's finale (and tied with the fall one).

• Opposite the big reality duel, it was Modern Family (3.7) emerging as the runaway #1 program, spiking week-to-week for its wedding finale. A finals uptick made it even year-to-year, and the one-hour The Middle adjusted up to narrowly exceed last year's finale. The network launched season two of Motive (0.9) at 10/9c. It was down nearly a third from last year's series premiere but basically in line with what it did in the last two thirds of the season. Even with ABC comedy Wednesday going into repeats next week, its lead-ins probably won't be that much worse than Mixology (1.3).

• Even with no CBS procedurals in play, NBC got no real finale heat out of Revolution (1.1), Law and Order: SVU (1.6) and Chicago PD (1.6). And the CW's The 100 (0.5) held on pretty well with usual lead-in Arrow departing.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 5/7/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• A week after the last two hours of ABC's Wednesday block fell apart, there was no rally for Mixology (1.3) and Nashville (1.2) on this night, and only a tiny one for Modern Family (2.9). And this time, the 8/7c hour joined in the late spring struggle, as The Middle (1.6) and Suburgatory (1.3) were still at new lows after adjusting up in finals!

• Things were also pretty brutal on NBC; Revolution (1.1) hit a new low, while Chicago PD (1.4) was tied for a low. And on Fox, American Idol (1.8) hit a new Wednesday low even with its finals uptick.

• Only CBS had some relief, with Survivor (2.4), Criminal Minds (2.3) and CSI (1.9) all posting small week-to-week upticks.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 4/30/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• It was the first Wednesday in a good while with every network fully in originals, and several networks seemed to suffer. It was worst on ABC, where Suburgatory (1.5), Modern Family (2.8), Mixology (1.3) and Nashville (1.2) all experienced double-digit drops. Modern and Nashville were particularly weak, each down 20% to outright season lows. This puts a screeching halt to Modern's minor momentum of late, and ABC will desperately hope it's just a blip night.

• After adjustments, American Idol (1.9), Survivor (2.3) and Criminal Minds (2.2) all avoided outright season lows, but all tied for lows. CSI (1.7) adjusted down to dead even in a point bound to be scrutinized because it introduced the potential Patricia Arquette spin-off.

• NBC emerged largely unscathed. Revolution (1.3) was the only Portland pre-emption casualty, adjusting down to its usual number, and Chicago PD (1.9) seemingly benefited from another Dick Wolf universe cross-over (this time with Chicago Fire). And the CW's The 100 (0.6) held up in the face of all the drama competition returning.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 1/29/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• With the strongest shows on ABC and CBS going into repeats, NBC had another strong crime drama night with Law and Order: SVU (2.0) and week four of Chicago PD (1.7), each up again. But Revolution (1.3) gave back last week's increase in the 8/7c hour.

• Miscellaneous notes: 
• ABC's Suburgatory (1.5) was down three tenths with The Middle (1.5) going into repeats, and Nashville (1.5) ticked up for a second straight week despite a series low lead-in from Super Fun Night (1.3);
• Fox's American Idol (3.8) inched down again despite easier competition;
• The finals were kind to the CW. Both shows adjusted up, giving The Tomorrow People its first 0.7 since week three and Arrow (1.1) its first 1.0+ in the new year.
• And CBS' annual Super Bowl's Greatest Commercials special (1.9) went a tenth behind last year's rating.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 1/22/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• The second American Idol Wednesday (4.0) was down 15% from last week, a steeper drop than last season. (The year-to-year slippage vs. last year's second Wednesday: -27%.)

• Some rally on the other networks might have been predictable with Idol coming back a bit, but overall there were some big swings in both directions. ABC was up across the board, most notably with The Middle (2.3), the second week of Suburgatory (1.8), and Modern Family (3.4), as was NBC with Revolution (1.5), a spiking Law and Order: SVU (1.8) and a slightly up week three of Chicago PD (1.6).

• CBS hit series lows with Criminal Minds (2.2) and CSI (1.6), and while the CW is still having a somewhat soft start to the new year with Arrow, it did adjust up to 0.9 in finals.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 1/15/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• The thirteenth premiere of American Idol (4.7) was down 22% year-to-year in the demo (and continued to skew older, dropping only a little over 15% in overall viewership). But given the incredible severity of the show's bleed through last season (when it was in the 3.0 range by the end and had a 3.6 finale), this is not a bad start. In fact, no Idol premiere has increased this much (28%) vs. the prior season's finale. And if the judges were as well-received by the audience as they seemed to be by critics, it's certainly not hard to imagine the show holding up better through the season this time.

• Almost everything dropped week-to-week against Idol's return, but it was most severe on NBC, coming down from last week's inflated episodes against CBS pre-emptions. Chicago PD (1.5) was down 25% in week two, but that was predictable... and in fact a less severe drop than its lead-in Law and Order: SVU (1.4) took. And Revolution (1.3) hit a new low at 8/7c.

• On ABC, Suburgatory (1.6) had a modest start in its return to 8:30, barely outrating the last few episodes of Back in the Game/Super Fun Night, but that looks a little better relatively speaking since The Middle (1.8), Modern Family (3.2) and Nashville (1.3) all tied or hit new season lows.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 10/9/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• The mostly downward week three trend continued to Wednesday, when most shows were down roughly 10% week-to-week. ABC saw 9:30 newbie Super Fun Night take the large week two drop most expected, down 22% from the premiere, though after finals non-adjustments it's still at a good level. A finals downtick for Nashville left it at a disappointing -16% week-to-week, though.

• The CW's Tuesday momentum couldn't continue onto Wednesday as Arrow disappointingly only managed to get back to its finale numbers. Given that softness and a finals uptick, I'm willing to say it was a reasonably positive premiere for The Tomorrow People, which ended up matching Arrow's demo (I expected TTP to premiere at 0.9 with Arrow two ticks higher). We'll see what happens next week.

• On NBC, Revolution inched downward again, Law and Order: SVU continued its rapid evening out two weeks after that massive premiere, and Ironside was down 15%, doing nothing to change its negative premiere night narrative. 

• The broadcasters' 10/9c struggles may be partly attributable to cable, where there was an epic clash going down between A&E's Duck Dynasty (3.2) and FX's premiere of American Horror Story: Coven (3.0). For AHS, it's an absolutely remarkable turnaround given that season two debuted at 2.2 and actually declined big from there (all the way to 1.3 by the finale).

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 10/2/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• The Rebel-lion began quite well for ABC as Super Fun Night was one of the more impressive post-Modern Family launches, as the Rebel Wilson fanbase likely helped the show pretty much match up skew-wise with its young-skewing ModFam lead-in. I totally whiffed on this one, but in my defense, part of my miss was because I didn't remotely see Modern Fam holding 100% of its week-ago premiere rating. Nashville rounded out a strong final two hours for ABC by almost completely holding up week-to-week even in the face of a one-point-plus lead-in downgrade.

• It wasn't nearly as rosy in the 8:00 hour for ABC, though The Middle and Back in the Game both adjusted up in finals to better levels. BITG was even with last year's The Neighbors.

• NBC's relatively huge premiere Wednesday was just extra credit in a week they would've dominated anyway on the strength of The Voice and football. But it doesn't look like the night will be that kind of asset going forward. Revolution mimicked its spring trajectory, with one good week and then a drop in week two (though it got some finals help), Law and Order: SVU came way back to earth (though it's still a big positive, on the year-to-year plus side) and Ironside launched rather terribly at 10/9c. As predicted pre-season, there was a major skew discrepancy here; it matched SVU in viewership but had 30% fewer 18-49ers.

• No broadcast-wide year-to-year comparisons this time since there was a debate on the second Wednesday last year.

SpotVault - Revolution (NBC) - 2013-14 Ratings

Revolution

Wednesdays, 8/7c, NBC

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Wednesday 9/25/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• NBC's Wednesday Revolution began, and Revolution itself returned pretty nicely, nearly matching its late-season post-Voice results in a lead-off role. But the night's biggest story by far was the return of Law and Order: SVU, which outrated any result from the last two seasons and grew a whooping 29% from last year.

• ABC got off to a fairly soft start on Wednesday with a one-hour Modern Family and Nashville each down around 25% from last year's premieres and The Middle also down double digits. They didn't get the fall bounce-back they have in years past. But Back in the Game, which outrated all of The Neighbors' 8:30 results last season, started in reasonably positive fashion.

• Despite the SVU breakout, the CBS procedurals did fine, especially Criminal Minds (down just 10%), though a downward adjustment by CSI took it to 20% below last year's premiere. Survivor was down the sharpest of any CBS show, 23% below last year's week two.

• The X Factor decided to swing upward against the return of competition. Gonna need a few to stew on that one. Still -26% vs. premiere Wednesday 2012.

• The big four was -8% vs. premiere Wednesday 2012. ABC's -2% was a bit inflated because they had just one ModFam and a Revenge recap special on this night last year.

The Question, Wednesday 9/25/13: Can NBC Start a Wednesday Revolution?

NBC's had a lot of fun crushing the competition on the season's first two nights with The Voice and its drama lead-outs. But tonight, they get to see where they're at with a lineup that doesn't include that show. It begins with Revolution, a series that aired all of season one with a Voice lead-in but now has to fend for itself on Wednesday. The last show sent away from The Voice completely bombed on day one, so NBC's hoping that, at minimum, Revolution doesn't "pull a Smash." Can NBC start a Wednesday Revolution? That's The Question for Wednesday, September 25, 2013.

Fall 2013 Best Case/Worst Case, Wednesday 8/7c

The Basics:

	bc	Rank	y2y	Rank	TPUT	Rank	bc/TPUT	Rank
Wednesday 8:00	9.3	10	-13%	16	32.2	13	29%	8

Though Wednesday 8:00 wasn't the weakest weeknight 8:00 hour on broadcast (it edged Tuesday 8:00 by less than a tenth), none of the big four broadcasters really had anything positive to report this year. ABC saw The Middle take a downturn, while The Neighbors was much weaker than 2011-12's Suburgatory. CBS' Survivor continued to trickle downward, NBC had weak comedies, and Fox saw its singing shows keep crumbling. The year's best story by far was on the CW, where Arrow was without a doubt the second-most impressive new show the network has ever developed.

Spotted Ratings, Monday 6/3/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• The post-Memorial Day bounce-back didn't happen, at least to anywhere near the same extent as last year. The Voice and the season finale of Revolution both ended up gaining just a tick or so week-to-week. But ABC was even more disappointing, as The Bachelorette actually dropped a couple ticks and Mistresses became just another of the blah low-1 premieres that have filled the early summer on broadcast.

• In an interesting scheduling experiment, Fox imported an original episode of FX's Anger Management, which actually slightly outrated its repeat New Girl lead-in.

• A bunch of cable notables after the jump!

Spotted Ratings, Monday 5/6/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• A week after nice Monday finale numbers from Bones and The Following, Fox went totally off the Nielsen map with a Rihanna special and a repeat of Bones.  But the competing networks didn't benefit, as The Voice and Dancing with the Stars were down again and CBS was roughly even.

• The only positive movers were in the 10:00 hour, where Hawaii Five-0 was up a couple ticks and Revolution finally halted its spring slump.

Spotted Ratings, Monday 4/29/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• Season finale night on Fox went pretty well with Bones up a tick and The Following up three. Both shows hit their best numbers since The Voice returns. Bones was up from last year's finale, and particularly for The Following, these last two weeks were a positive finish for a show that had previously been deteriorating.

• Meanwhile, it was a soft Monday on CBS and NBC, which will probably welcome the diminished competition from Fox in future weeks. Hawaii Five-0 hit another new low point, Revolution dropped yet another two tenths after finals, and The Voice ended up down 12% even with a generous finals uptick. CBS at least saw a bit of a rally for the troubled 9:00 hour.

Spotted Ratings, Monday 4/22/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• NBC dominated yet another Monday, but The Voice came down a few notches from its week-ago peak and Revolution dropped to another new low after finals. While Revolution still looks pretty good for another season, its hopes as an anchor on another night have really diminished since its return from hiatus.

• Fox had a bit of a sigh of relief as fading The Following perked back up in a noticeable way in its penultimate week, hitting its best number in five weeks. It now looks like there's at least a chance it can get back into the upper half of the 2's on finale night. It may have helped that CBS was in all repeats on the last pre-sweeps Monday.

Spotted Ratings, Monday 4/8/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• CBS rounded out a few very strong days in the sports & specials realm with the NCAA Men's Basketball Championship between Louisville and Michigan. It ended up at an 8.4 demo, up a solid 11% year-to-year and the highest rating for the final game since 2005.

• Despite the added competition, the competing entertainment programs held up surprisingly well. The Voice cracked a Five-0 for the first time in the 2012-13 season while dramas Revolution and The Following were steady, even though the latter had the added whammy of a Bones repeat leading in.

Spotted Ratings, Monday 4/1/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• It was another victorious yet mixed Monday for NBC, as The Voice held up quite well in its second Monday airing but Revolution was down four ticks from last week's already modest return. The drama is still a better option than the back half of Smash season one was in this slot, but not by all that much anymore.

• The Voice continued to mow down Dancing with the Stars, down multiple ticks again and only a tick above its Monday low point from the fall. Castle had another solid outing at 10/9c in the show's 100th episode.

• CBS went into repeats this week, but that was of no real help to Fox's Bones and The Following.

The Question, Monday 4/1/13: Was NBC's Premiere Monday Fool's Gold?

NBC's "return to relevance" Monday went well enough, especially in the first two hours when The Voice hung a huge 4.8. But the lineup is not without its question marks coming into week two tonight. First, a finals downtick for Revolution left it right at its fall low point 2.6, a somewhat disappointing return especially considering how much The Voice overachieved. Then came Tuesday's ratings, when The Voice tumbled by 0.7 points from the Monday premiere. (In the fall, that drop was just 0.2 points, and then the show rose in week two.)

Both shows figure to drop tonight, but the degree of those drops will tell us whether there's anything to worry about. Was NBC's premiere Monday fool's gold? That's The Question for Monday, April 1, 2013.

The Voice PLUS Revolution Over/Under: 6.85.

Spotted Ratings, Monday 3/25/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• And just like that, NBC is "back." The Voice had a sensational return, outrating the fall premiere by 14%, and after a finals uptick it tied the fall season's highest Monday point. (It was below the Super Bowl-inflated spring 2012 premiere, though.) The return of Revolution was more in the "OK" range, getting about what I expected despite The Voice significantly overachieving. But coming back relatively steady after four months shouldn't be totally taken for granted.

• On ABC, Dancing with the Stars is also "back"... to its underwhelming against-Voice level from the fall. If it weren't abundantly clear already, this 25% week-to-week meltdown should drill home that these shows have an incredible amount of crossover audience. Unless a ton of people go back after having sampled The Voice this week, this should further motivate ABC to do something drastic with DWTS. The silver lining was that Castle held up quite well considering how much tougher its situation got.

• It remains tough for the scripted offerings on a mega-crowded Monday. CBS' lineup didn't drop much from its stinky previous Monday, dipping at 8:00 with How I Met Your Mother and Rules of Engagement but actually bouncing back a bit at 9:00 with 2 Broke Girls and Mike and Molly. But Fox's Bones and The Following were hit again.

• A&E's new drama Bates Motel (1.3) held up nicely in week two.