Thursday, September 26, 2013

The Question, Wednesday 9/25/13: Can NBC Start a Wednesday Revolution?


NBC's had a lot of fun crushing the competition on the season's first two nights with The Voice and its drama lead-outs. But tonight, they get to see where they're at with a lineup that doesn't include that show. It begins with Revolution, a series that aired all of season one with a Voice lead-in but now has to fend for itself on Wednesday. The last show sent away from The Voice completely bombed on day one, so NBC's hoping that, at minimum, Revolution doesn't "pull a Smash." Can NBC start a Wednesday Revolution? That's The Question for Wednesday, September 25, 2013.

Revolution Last Season Smash Crash 2013
4.1 (premiere, 9/17/12, 5.1 Voice)
2.57 (season one average)
1.9 -> 1.9 -> 2.0 (last three weeks)
3.8 (premiere, 2/6/12, 7.7 Voice)
2.27 (season one average) 
1.8 -> 1.8 -> 1.8 (last three weeks)
1.2 (season two premiere, 2/5/13, 1.5 New Normal)

I don't see Revolution being a Wednesday game-changer, but it seems likely to hold up better than Smash, at least well enough that NBC can reasonably stick with it within this season. It was much heavier-DVRed than Smash, had more male viewers, and it was basically even across the last two months of the season as The Voice dropped by nearly two points. All of that suggests there is more distinct audience here. It's competing with unspectacular-rated reality series and comedies which shouldn't cross over that much. And though the lead-in is gone, it's at least gotten promoted within The Voice, while Smash showed up right in the middle of NBC's disaster times.

Over/Under: 1.75.
 
No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

21 comments:

Spot said...

I'm probably going to regret this, but I think it will hold up enough for a 1.9, so over.

Spot said...

The show had no creative direction at the end of last season. I think people have caught onto that bankruptcy, and won't waste more time w/ it. Under.

Spot said...

I wanna say over badly because I agree 100% with all of your arguments, especially the DVR one and the competition one. But I just don't see it being 0.2 lower than the voice boosted finale. As much as I am rooting for it, it has to be under.

Spot said...

I have little confidence that it can get as high as 1.8 after the move. Under.

Spot said...

Under. 1.6 or 1.7.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Under. It's going to be around 1.5/1.6 for the premiere, but I can see it going towards 1.1/1.2 by the end of the season.

I used to think this show had promise, both creatively and ratings-wise. Not anymore.

Spot said...

Under. Its the sort of show that I expect to lose viewers over the summer.

Spot said...

Maybe I should go with the majority after the last two nights.


Under at a 1.6

Spot said...

I predicted another Smash Crash with this one, and although I like the scheduling more now than I did then, that ain't getting it over this line. Under at about a 1.6.

Spot said...

I say it surprises greatly. Over at 2.5.

Spot said...

This is a good test of its True strength. Under

Spot said...

I like your moxy. And I'm already on record for 1.9, so Over.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

UNDER.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Rethinking this: DVRs, OnDemand and a VERY soft competition... it may surprise everyone, after all.

Or not.

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