Sunday, September 29, 2013

The Question, Sunday 9/29/13: How Badly Will We Want to See Off Breaking Bad?


In protest of the broadcast networks' weak Sunday schedules, I'm spending b'cast's Premiere Sunday on cable with the series finale of Breaking Bad, a cultural mega-event that should crush all of the broadcast scripted options. This show's meteoric rise has been almost unprecedented. After four years toiling away at sub-1.0 ratings, it grew into the low 1's for the first half of the final season in 2012 and absolutely went through the roof for 2013's second half. Now there are more people watching AMC's week-long series marathon than may have seen some of those eps in first run! How badly will we want to see off Breaking Bad? That's The Question for Sunday, September 29, 2013.

Breaking Bad This Season
2.87 (premiere, 8/11/13, +89% y2y)
2.41 (8/18/13)
2.54 (8/25/13)
2.18 (Labor Day weekend, 9/1/13)
2.58 (9/8/13)
3.19 (9/15/13)
3.37 (9/22/13)

The crazy thing about trying to predict this show is that all this growth has come even though there's no huge reserve of old fans expected to come back for the end, as there certainly was in The Sopranos' spike from mid-3's all the way up to 5.4 in 2007. Usually that's what causes massive finale jumps. Here, all of the Nielsen momentum has come from the scores and scores of new fans. But there sure are a lot of 'em. My guess: a ton of Breaking Bad DVRers will be watching this finale within the Live+SD window, and all the new broadcast competition (plus Showtime's Homeland premiere) practically doesn't matter here.

Over/Under: 4.45.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

22 comments:

Spot said...

Oh I am disappointed that the question is not about ABC Sundays. I think I am the only people on the planet that could not like Breaking Bad. Under

Spot said...

It's just not for me, but I'm a fan of Odenkirk, so I will watch the Saul spin-off. Under

Spot said...

I drastically underestimated the season premiere, so over. If I'm wrong, at least I won't have made the same mistake twice.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

4 is possible, but I cant see it hitting 4.5. Under

Spot said...

Over. A huge number of my friends who normally let a season finish before starting it have been catching up in order to watch the finale on the day. I'm hoping this isn't an isolated example and this turns into a real mega-event.

Spot said...

One of my roommates has never been able to get into it either, so you're far from alone.

Making a pure instinct call here. There's enough new aud out there. Over.

Spot said...

I think it'll be more like 4.1 ish. UNDER

Spot said...

Under. I don't see more than a one point spike.

Spot said...

Under at a 4.1

Spot said...

Under. Around four is the ceiling, I think.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

It's tough for me to bet against cable dominance, but I think you're a little too high.


Under at 4.2

Spot said...

Under. I'm going with 4 even.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Going north of 4.0 is doable given the show's trajectory this season and the zeitgeist-y past seven days (starting with the Emmy win last Sunday and going through last night's Breaking-laden SNL references). It's that last half-point that I question; cleave that to a 4.25 and I think the commentariat would have been more split even if the O/U is closer to being correct.


Under.

Spot said...

Under at a 3.96. I just can't see it jumping over a point tonight.

Spot said...

Given that AMC report their A18-49 number to 2dp, there's a shot at a tie here! That'd be hilarious.

It's a good line, too - I can't see it not having a 4-handle. The thing for me is that all the buzz I was getting before the show was of people being *really* worried about spoilers, and that could even trump the DVR-proof SNF competition. Those marathon numbers are a good sign that there are new fans who are going to be in for the finale. Can it spike a point? Can you really bet against the spikes of this show?

I can't. Over.

Spot said...

I actually look at it the other way; looking at the predix, the split would've been about the same at 4.25. If it actually does the 4.5-4.6 I predicted, it'll be moot, but I'd sure like to have those extra couple tenths on "my" side.


My goal was a number that would make it hard to go over, and I certainly succeeded, but it seems the conventional wisdom was more in the 4.0 range. I expected that at 4.25 there would be a lot of people right up against that number and taking a flyer on over. Sigh.

Spot said...

It scored a 5.3, apparently. Simply huge. =O

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