Friday, September 6, 2013

Fall 2013 Best Case/Worst Case, Friday 8/7c

The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Friday 8:00 5.0 19 -5% 3 27.9 20 18% 19

Though Friday 8:00 remained one of the least-viewed and least-broadcast viewed hours of the week, it actually had the third-smallest year-to-year decline among the broadcasters. ABC really got its act together, first with Shark Tank and then with the return of TGIF comedies, while CBS aired strong Friday option Undercover Boss in this hour across a much larger part of the season.

The Shows:

Image Last Man Standing Slot Average
Premieres September 20 1.36
Best Case: Last Man pretty much held onto its early season numbers throughout the rest of the season, and it should bring that audience back this year since there's pretty much no scripted competition. Up a hundredth to 1.50.

Worst Case:
Last year's numbers were inflated by the interest surrounding Reba's return in lead-out Malibu Country. With no real hook to draw 'em in this year, Last Man struggles out of the gate and tumbles by more than 20% to a 1.18.

No strong opinion on this one either way. The synergy with Malibu Country may have helped this show's ratings a bit, but this show held up well even as Malibu fell off across the season. I'll just give it a generic -8% to a 1.37, and it's syndication-bound after a pretty easy renewal.
Slot Orig Avg
Shark Tank
y2y Label
-38% solid(Fri)1.70 1.96
True SitchLast Man Standing
1.69 -12%
Last Pick Miss1.49 1.69
1.45 +3%Happy Endings
2012-13 Slot
Friday 8:000.84 1.05

Image The Neighbors Slot Average
Premieres September 20 1.32
Best Case: The Neighbors got mid-1's against a lot of reality competition even when it had repeat lead-ins. So it can do it on Friday, where the competition is far less formidable. Builds from Last Man and from last year's Malibu average at 1.50, and both shows return to the hour for 2014-15.

Worst Case:
If ABC needed one last comedy renewal for the 8:30 Friday slot, it should've just gone to the compatible show that was already there. The Neighbors proves a far poorer match with Last Man, plummeting to a miserable 1.05 and getting the axe.

I thought late last season that The Neighbors was a stronger show than Malibu, but this pairing is not going to be the best way to make that clear. It gets a 1.26 average, which is basically the same as what Malibu probably would've gotten, and eight months from now it's in the same low-end-bubble position as Malibu was this year.
Slot Orig Avg
Shark Tank
y2y Label
marginal1.70 1.96
True SitchMalibu Country
1.68 +10%
Last Pick Miss1.39 1.44
1.80 +3%Happy Endings
2012-13 Slot
Wednesday 8:300.74 1.07

Image Undercover Boss Slot Average
Premieres September 27 1.39
Best Case: The y2y number on the left is deceptive, because in just comparing Friday numbers vs. Friday numbers, Undercover Boss was only down around 6%. And it can do even better than that since competing MasterChef Junior will be a non-factor. Down a teeny bit to 1.59.

Worst Case:
CBS has done this show a solid by giving it shorter seasons, preventing the late-season burnout that characterized its early years. Now that it's into tentpole mode, that flame-out rears its head again. Another -20%, this one all on Friday, to just a 1.29, and it goes sub-1.0 at the end of the season. It may well get cancelled.

This show seems to have settled in pretty well on Friday, and it'll get the opportunity to air some early fall episodes when broadcast ratings are typically highest. Just -6% to a timeslot-winning 1.51.
Slot Orig Avg
y2y Label
-20% hit(Fri)1.25 1.47
True SitchUndercover Boss
1.87 -14%
Last Pick Miss1.61 1.87
The Job
2012-13 Slot
Friday 8:000.80 0.88

Image Dateline Slot Average
Premieres September 27 0.95
Best Case: The move to 8:00 is a good thing for Dateline because it doesn't have to face competing newsmagazine 20/20. Dateline Classics this summer have been getting low 1's, so surely it can replicate last year's 1.29 in the regular season!

Worst Case:
It's out of the 20/20 frying pan, but it's into the Undercover Boss fire, and overall viewing is much lower at 8:00. It drops nearly 20% to a 1.05.

Generally with newsmagazines you can't go all that wrong picking a league-average decline. Since my pick for the league average decline is -8% or -9%, I'm saying a 1.19.
Slot Orig Avg
Fashion Star
y2y Label
-2% solid(Fri)0.69 0.87
True SitchDateline
1.49 -13%
Last Pick Miss1.34 1.57
1.32 -2%
2012-13 Slot
Friday 10:00

Fox note: I'm not Best Case/Worst Case-ing Fox's "late fall" shows, because I have so little confidence in that plan actually coming to pass. I may do another post in late October or early November once that (plus the other inevitable schedule moves) comes to pass.

Image MasterChef Junior (NEW!) Slot Average
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres September 27 1.13
Best Case: You could argue MasterChef is the hottest of the many Gordon Ramsay brands, and doing it with kids is a truly fascinating twist. It basically does 70% of the mothership's summer numbers, and a new Friday unscripted hero is born as it averages a timeslot-winning 1.60.

Worst Case:
This show is going for family viewing, and ABC's comedies and CBS' Undercover Boss pretty much suck all the family viewing out of the timeslot. It can't even do usual Kitchen Nightmares numbers at a 0.80.

I'm guessing this one mostly gets lost in the shuffle. I'll give it about what Kitchen Nightmares would probably get in the hour: 1.00.
Kitchen Nightmares
1.13 1.29

Image The Carrie Diaries Slot Average
Premieres October 25 0.39
Best Case: America's Next Top Model hasn't been a total disaster on Friday, which suggests more of the women 18-34 audience is home on Friday nights than we think. Carrie is able to attract some of the Top Model aud and hang a very respectable for Friday 0.38.

Worst Case:
If this show has little audience on Monday, it's not going to have any audience on Friday when all the young'uns are doing other things. Posts 13 consecutive 0.2 ratings for a 0.20 and is replaced at midseason.

By the end of the season Carrie had close to the same True numbers as Nikita, but it's an even worse fit for this night than Nikita was. I hope it works, but I see Carrie mostly getting 0.3 ratings, with some 0.2's mixing in as the season progresses. 0.27.
Slot Orig Avg
America's Next Top Model
y2y Label
flop0.51 0.59
True SitchNikita
0.46 -0%
Last Pick Miss0.35 0.42
0.52 -13%
2012-13 Slot
Monday 8:00

The Cable:

ShowNetworkPremieres Avg y2y
Friday Night Smackdown!Syfyongoing0.74-14%

The Network to Watch: I guess I'll go with ABC. It'll be interesting to see how The Neighbors gels with a somewhat (though not horribly) mis-matched lead-in.

The Picks: Nothing on this list for which I have a season pass. The dearth of options might mean I check out The Neighbors or The Carrie Diaries again, but more likely I won't really be looking to pile up more programming on the DVR.


Spot said...

Junior MasterChef sounds like a potential affront to humanity with my mental image of Gordon Ramsey yelling at kids. Don't know if that helps or hurts the show's chances... And I can't help but think of American Juniors, the decade-old Idol spin-off that was also pint-sized in the ratings compared to the adult version.

Spot said...

I see Junior MasterChef doing a bit better, closer to the best case number but I am always surprised by how young the original appears to skew compared to say, Big Brother.

Spot said...

I'm taking a flyer on this hour. Probably use it to keep up on stuff that's DVR/On Demand-only from other nights.

Spot said...

I saw the first & third seasons of MasterChef (US) and I don't remember Ramsay yelling at anyone.

I'd watch it either way, since the only Friday network show I've watched is Kitchen Nightmares (I still haven't gone through Touch season 2).

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