Sunday, September 15, 2013

Fall 2013 Best Case/Worst Case, Sunday 9/8c


The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Sunday 9:00 12.5 2 -9% 11 38.5 1 33% 2

Because of the continued success of all the massive broadcast events on Sunday, the night is somewhat immune to taking large drops on a year-to-year basis, even as Sunday broadcast entertainment shows continue to deteriorate. ABC's Revenge and CBS' The Good Wife both had disappointing seasons against the growing logjam of huge cable options. But despite that, all four networks are leaving the hour totally intact for the fall of 2013.



The Shows:


Image Revenge Slot Average
Premieres September 29 2.24
Best Case: After falling into the classic season two trap of getting too sprawling/complicated, Revenge finished the season well and is getting back to basics creatively! Gets back to above 2.0 in the fall and holds most of it in the spring. 2.00.

Worst Case:
Revenge pretty much trended sharply down across the whole season, so why would scores of people suddenly come back for season three? Can't even premiere at a 2.0 and takes another big post-premiere drop, ending up at a 1.35. That's down 37% from last year.

Likeliest:
This kind of show is usually unable to reverse the downward momentum once it starts. And it undeniably started last season. As with its teammate Once Upon a Time, the fall year-to-year comparisons will be truly terrible, but they will brighten a bit in the second half since it won't deal with event season head-to-head. -22% to just a 1.68. Probably gets one last renewal for 2014-15.
Slot Orig Avg
2.12
2.14Occupants
Revenge
y2y Label
-13% solid2.14 1.89
True Sitch
1.89 +13%
Last Pick Miss
2.60 -18%
2012-13 Slot
Sunday 9:00




Image The Good Wife Slot Average
Premieres September 29 3.81
Best Case: With the Revenge rejection moving full speed ahead and some additional exposure from its multi-window syndication deal, The Good Wife can hang tight year-to-year at a 1.66, narrowly edging Revenge's season average.

Worst Case:
Why does CBS throw its prestige drama into the timeslot known for cable prestige drama? I dunno, but it's certainly not a battle that TGW can win, and it continues getting weaker. A wretched 1.30, down over 20%, and the end finally comes.

Likeliest:
The Good Wife didn't drop all that much over the course of last season, so I think it's pretty much settled in after a couple big drops on Sunday. The continued exodus by Revenge viewers can only help. TGW had nearly caught up to Revenge last season and I see that gap continuing to narrow this year. It drops by the league average to a 1.52.
Slot Orig Avg
1.98
1.66Occupants
The Good Wife
y2y Label
-18% marginal1.63 1.58
True Sitch
1.62 +2%
Last Pick Miss
1.86 -11%
2012-13 Slot
Sunday 9:00




Image Sunday Night Football Slot Average
Premieres September 5 4.31
Best Case: There have been some promising preseason results. Last season's decline was just a blip amid what has been an upward trend across the last decade. It makes up last year's 0.2-point decline and adds another couple tenths to 8.56.

Worst Case:
Last year saw SNF take its first raw numbers downturn since 2007-08 (and the Super Bowl take its first since 2009). With Tim Tebow now completely irrelevant, the casual audience keeps tuning out. Takes a drop nearly in line with entertainment ratings to a 7.60.

Likeliest:
Football is going to remain an absolute beast, but I don't know that there's yet another explosion in it. My guess is we're pretty much at the saturation point societally. There aren't tons of new fans to be added. I'll give it another -2% this year to the same 8.00 I picked last year.
Slot Orig Avg
1.67
8.16Occupants
Sunday Night Football
y2y Label
-2% megahit8.13 7.85
True SitchCelebrity Apprentice
7.89 +3%
Last Pick Miss1.62 1.75
8.00 +2%
2012-13 Slot
Sunday 8:30




Image Family Guy Slot Average
Premieres September 29 2.40
Best Case: The 8:00 hour holds up better than usual due to improved football lead-ins, and that benefits Family Guy too. -5% to a 2.57.

Worst Case:
Fox is phasing out of the animation game and stops promoting the shows as much. Two years of above average Family Guy drops mean there is some rejection of the franchise going on. Loses 18% to 2.22.

Likeliest:
League average drop to 2.47. Next!
Slot Orig Avg
2.72
2.70Occupants
Family Guy
y2y Label
-11% hit2.73 2.58
True Sitch
2.57 +5%
Last Pick Miss
2.76 -2%
2012-13 Slot
Sunday 9:00

Image American Dad! Slot Average
Premieres September 29 2.04
Best Case: It had the best season year-to-year of the regular cartoons last year, so its repeat exposure on Adult Swim is making this show stronger. Once again, in its last stand on Fox, it has the best season year-to-year of the toons: -2% to a stout 2.10.

Worst Case:
It had the best season year-to-year of the regular cartoons last year, so it's due to even out. It's on its way out, so Fox barely mentions it in its promos. Then they air about half the season at 7:30 so they can launch Murder Police. 1.40.

Likeliest:
There's a pretty strong chance this show ends up at 7:30 for awhile. Since it's moving to TBS, it has the slot Fox will most want to give away to try something new. But I'm going to base this prediction on the show not airing at 7:30 at all. -11% to a 1.90.
Slot Orig Avg
2.12
2.14Occupants
American Dad!
y2y Label
-6% solid2.17 1.93
True Sitch
1.92 +11%
Last Pick Miss
2.08 +3%
2012-13 Slot
Sunday 9:30



The Cable:

ShowNetworkPremieres Avg y2y
The Walking DeadAMC10/135.32+56%
HomelandShowtime9/290.83+78%
Boardwalk EmpireHBO9/80.82-27%
Drop Dead DivaLifetime10/60.68-11%



The Network to Watch: ABC. As with Once Upon a Time in the 8:00 hour, there are real questions about how long Revenge is going to run. It could very well get itself into real trouble this year.

The Picks: The Walking Dead. I like Homeland, but not enough to pay for Showtime, so I'll probably just marathon it during one of my cable company's free Showtime weekends. I gave up on Revenge late last season, right before it apparently righted the ship. (It's always that way with me!) But I don't really see myself going back to it regardless.

5 comments:

Spot said...

I am so bitter on this timeslot because I love Revenge a lot so it is hard for me to see what happened to it here. Anyway:


Revenge: We have virtually the same expected number, I have it at 1.69. I fully agree with you that year to year comparisons will be horrible during fall but that it will look better during spring. However, and maybe that is just because I am an optimistic, I think the upside (as in, your best case potential) is higher than you giving it credit for, not that it really matters that much since I am still going to the same expected value as you are. I am so bitter about this as I think it could have easily been avoided. Oh well.


The Good Wife: I don't think the good wife is done dropping. Also, I think the new storyline is exciting but I think it will drive away some more casual viewers and some shippers seeing that Alicia seems to be done with Will for the time being. I say it is down to a 1.40. What happens to it at the end of the year is anyone's guess (It is a good year to be a Monday-Thursday drama for CBS because with everything that is going on Fridays and Sundays, it is very unlikely that midweek dramas have any troubles getting their renewals)


I don't really predict the others!


Network to watch: 100% ABC
My picks: Revenge, The Good Wife and over cable Homeland and The Walking Dead (my favorite show on TV at the moment). Later on, Game of Thrones.

Spot said...

Possibly my favourite timeslot, The Good Wife, Revenge & Homeland is too much drama goodness (and I love Family Guy too)! Really excited to see how the first two play out storyline-wise after how they ended and crossing my fingers that TGW can survive AGAIN with a few CBS dramas that could potentially end after 2013-14.

Spot said...

ABC certainly has the highest need to watch in terms of divining the long term future of the slot. Is it bad of me to say that I want Revenge to crater so they have to try SOMETHING different in this hour/night?


I doubt Good Wife's ratings make that much difference to its future. At least directly. I can't help but feel they're gonna seal it up after five no matter what.


Looking at the early indicators, I think we're headed for some sort of down year again for SNF.


Don't have a lot of thoughts on the Fox shows. I seriously doubt they stop promoting Family Guy if it's really as good an 18-34 draw as everyone believes it is.


My picks:
Most likely Good Wife will be my live show until Walking Dead returns. Then it'll join Homeland in my OnDemand list. Unless I decide that it's more worth keeping up live w/ Homeland. (and besides, I have West Coast feeds for Showtime anyway, so...) Will occasionally use OD for all three, when the Steelers have the Sunday night game (although, mercifully enough, one of our currently scheduled SNF appearances is this upcoming week, before any this becomes an issue).

Spot said...

I can't help but think that if FOX really thought highly of Masterchef Junior, would have put it someplace else. Plus, they just finished a season of Masterchef a couple weeks ago. Then again, we are seeing that shows can perform modestly well on Fridays. Then AGAIN, things are starting to look fairly competitive across all three hours. It might be tough for shows to get big numbers when they aren't facing reruns or burnoffs.


Undercover Boss will do fairly well, but if they insist on running new episodes all the way until April or May with no show in between, those last few might really bring the average down. That was why the failure of The Job hurt more than people realize.


Last Man Standing and The Neighbors will hang out in the low-1s all year.
Dateline will stand pat, thanks to all the specials and breaking news. It won't be easy now that it has the lower HUT hour from now on and can't grow with two-hour episodes.

We all know what Carrie Diaries will do.

Spot said...

I'm surprised Spot didn't push the Worst Case number for SNF down a little further to account for the concussion concerns, after mentioning increased awareness of that as a Worst Case factor last season. Awareness will certainly have grown in the last year given the out-of-court settlement to ex-players in the summer and President Obama expressing concern about concussion pre-SB.

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