Saturday 9:00 along with Saturday 10:00 were among the biggest droppers on TV on a year-to-year basis. Because there are so few regular series, I have to assume this is about one-off events (like CBS' annual Alabama/LSU game, which dropped massively) and the continued depreciation of the repeats/movies that tend to take up shop in these hours.
|Saturday Night Football||Slot Average|
|Premieres August 31||1.16|
The premiere last Saturday was up a tenth year-to-year, and ABC's
conferences are generally more interesting. Let's take it back up to
just above its 2011 average at 2.30.|
Worst Case: The premiere would've been down if not for the game being so good. The increasingly fragmented world of college football TV takes a chunk out of the biggest stage. ABC is overrun with blowouts. Down 15% to a 1.82.
Likeliest: I guess I'm cheating a bit here since the first rating of the season (the 3.1 for the premiere) is already out. But last year the show that had already premiered as of its post (America's Next Top Model) ended up being one of my biggest misses. So I'll try not to be too influenced. I'm saying this ends up close to even with a 2.14. I think the difference in quality of games with Fox will grow.
|Slot Orig Avg|
|Saturday Night Football|
|CFB on Fox||Slot Average|
|Premieres September 7||1.35|
There just wasn't that much awareness that Fox was airing football last
year! The games are constantly promoed on the new Fox Sports 1. A bunch
of compelling stories pop up out of nowhere in the Big 12 and Pac 12.
It grows 20% to a 1.27.|
Worst Case: The Big 12 has no great teams, and the Pac 12's great teams are decidedly un-sexy. There's just no real interest in these games compared to the SEC/ACC/Big 10 fare over on ABC. Dives to a measly 0.90.
Likeliest: I'm going pretty close to the worst case here. Maybe I'm an east coast homer, but I just don't see the Big 12 and Pac 12 being as interesting going into the season unless USC surprises (and they were a big disappointment that may have hurt Fox last year). Down a tenth to a 0.96.
|Slot Orig Avg|
|CFB on Fox|
The Network to Watch: I guess Fox, since they're still kind of new to this primetime football thing?
The Picks: Whichever college football game I like best!