Saturday, September 14, 2013

Fall 2013 Best Case/Worst Case, Saturday 9/8c

The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Saturday 9:00 4.5 20 -14% 19 29.1 18 16% 20

Saturday 9:00 along with Saturday 10:00 were among the biggest droppers on TV on a year-to-year basis. Because there are so few regular series, I have to assume this is about one-off events (like CBS' annual Alabama/LSU game, which dropped massively) and the continued depreciation of the repeats/movies that tend to take up shop in these hours.

The Shows:

Image Saturday Night Football Slot Average
Premieres August 31 1.16
Best Case: The premiere last Saturday was up a tenth year-to-year, and ABC's conferences are generally more interesting. Let's take it back up to just above its 2011 average at 2.30.

Worst Case:
The premiere would've been down if not for the game being so good. The increasingly fragmented world of college football TV takes a chunk out of the biggest stage. ABC is overrun with blowouts. Down 15% to a 1.82.

I guess I'm cheating a bit here since the first rating of the season (the 3.1 for the premiere) is already out. But last year the show that had already premiered as of its post (America's Next Top Model) ended up being one of my biggest misses. So I'll try not to be too influenced. I'm saying this ends up close to even with a 2.14. I think the difference in quality of games with Fox will grow.
Slot Orig Avg
Saturday Night Football
y2y Label
-4% hit(Fri)2.15 2.46
True Sitch
2.46 -13%
Last Pick Miss
2.05 +5%
2012-13 Slot
Saturday 8:30

Image CFB on Fox Slot Average
Premieres September 7 1.35
Best Case: There just wasn't that much awareness that Fox was airing football last year! The games are constantly promoed on the new Fox Sports 1. A bunch of compelling stories pop up out of nowhere in the Big 12 and Pac 12. It grows 20% to a 1.27.

Worst Case:
The Big 12 has no great teams, and the Pac 12's great teams are decidedly un-sexy. There's just no real interest in these games compared to the SEC/ACC/Big 10 fare over on ABC. Dives to a measly 0.90.

I'm going pretty close to the worst case here. Maybe I'm an east coast homer, but I just don't see the Big 12 and Pac 12 being as interesting going into the season unless USC surprises (and they were a big disappointment that may have hurt Fox last year). Down a tenth to a 0.96.
Slot Orig Avg
CFB on Fox
y2y Label
flop1.06 1.16
True Sitch
1.16 -9%
Last Pick Miss
1.20 -12%
2012-13 Slot
Saturday 8:00

The Network to Watch: I guess Fox, since they're still kind of new to this primetime football thing?

The Picks: Whichever college football game I like best!


Spot said...

I think he meant broadcast, I doubt TWD will loose the title

Spot said...

I am surprised that you think people are too confident about the success of the millers, I think people are too pessimistic about that show!

Spot said...

Excellent points. I think it really depends on where Two and a Half Men ratings land and how negotiations go but there is a very reasonable chance it could be back, it is far from being a sure thing that it is a final season.

Spot said...

I still think that Big Bang has some growth left in it. It has done very well in syndication and new people are finding it every day. The change from niche nerd comedy to nerd-flavored hangout comedy seems to have worked. The competition isn't going to get any tougher, either. What would help is if it got off to a better start. It seems that unlike most programs, BBT doesn't get going until November. If it keeps it in the 5.0+ range from September to October, I can see another 5% to low-5s average.

I'm surprised that CBS is trying to put another dysfunctional family show after Big Bang. $#!+ My Dad Says didn't work. Rob! didn't work. Two and a Half Men kinda works. The Millers just feels the same as the first two, and probably would have fit together with Mom better Low-3s, and a tough decision as to whether to keep it.

Wonderland could be a surprise. I think that the creative concerns over the last season of Once will be addressed there and here, leading to both being stronger. I don't know how compatible it is (Once/Revenge?), but it will benefit from having a different audience than BBT or Millers. I say it debuts in the low-3s, and settles in at the mid-2s. Mid-2s average.

Welcome to the Family will get dragged down by a very weak lead-in and a catastrophically weak lead-out. Debuts at mid-1s, and down from there.


Parks is getting thrown to the dogs. Down 25%.
X Factor will continue to disappoint. Down 15%.

Vampire Diaries will hold up fairly well, as CW's on the upswing. Down only 5%, but does fall under 1.0 for some episodes for the first time.

Spot said...

No comment.

My picks:
Hell on Wheels has a bit of overlap w/ the regular season. After that, occasional sports, and taking a flyer otherwise.

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