Like most of Tuesday night, the 10:00 hour was filled with disappointment. First, CBS' Vegas was arguably the biggest underachiever of the season. Then came NBC's spectacular flop with season two of Smash. And ABC toiled away all season with low to mid-1's from Private Practice and Body of Proof. This season, two strong returnees in Person of Interest and Chicago Fire move into the hour looking to clean things up.
|Lucky 7 (NEW!)||Slot Average|
|Slot Orig Avg|
|Premieres September 24||1.53|
|Best Case: The SHIELD halo is so potent that it extends all the way into the 10:00 hour, where some people sample an under-the-radar gem that serves as great counter-programming in a procedural-logged hour. It's able to become ABC's version of Parenthood, a marginal but well-reviewed hanger-on. 1.80.|
Worst Case: The hour may be procedural-logged, but it's also strong-programs-logged. There's no room for an ABC alternative, especially a particularly niche one with a no-name cast. Premieres at 0.9, drops to 0.7 in week two and is pulled. 0.80.
Likeliest: I try to sample almost all scripted shows, out of interest in the industry and because I like at least something in almost every scripted genre. But generally there's a show every season that don't interest me in the least, and I have found those shows almost always turn out to be massive flops. I have no real interest in Lucky 7, so I'm gonna trust that instinct and say nobody else will either. I'm seeing some good reviews which may get me to try it, but getting sampled will still be a major problem. 0.95 and in a battle with We Are Men for first cancellation of the season.
|Body of Proof|
|Person of Interest||Slot Average|
|Premieres September 24||1.63|
|Best Case: The repeats have held well enough out of NCIS: LA, and its more serialized nature means it brings even more people back in first run. It's more compatible with a procedural than it was with the comedies. It had a better True than LA, so it builds from a higher-end LA at a 2.80, down 3% from last year.|
Worst Case: This show had a much better timeslot than the True metrics gave it credit for. It had a huge lead-in, faced no real procedural competition, and still couldn't do better than even year-to-year. Now it's got a lead-in over a point worse, a lower-viewed 10:00 slot, and an NBC procedural plus Sons of Anarchy as competition. Down 31% to a really underwhelming 2.00.
Likeliest: Most of the rating benefits from CBS' comedy expansion will be reaped in this hour, not in the actual hour where the expansion takes place. I thought POI was stronger than LA and that gap only widened with the 2013 True tweaks (as POI got a bonus for being less compatible with the comedies). LA still has the benefit of its ultra-compatible NCIS lead-in, but I see POI fully retaining the Voice-depressed NCIS: LA demo. 2.45.
|Slot Orig Avg|
|Chicago Fire||Slot Average|
|Premieres September 24||1.76|
|Best Case: Chicago Fire's spiked to a 2.2 after The Voice, and that was a special Wednesday episode that did worse than usual. Regularly entrenched with the lead-in, CF absolutely takes off to a slot-winning 2.55.|
Worst Case: This will be just the latest in a very long line of shows to disappoint when it gets a big lead-in upgrade. It's much less compatible here than with SVU. Grimm could only get into the upper 1's after The Voice, and CF won't do any better. Ties Grimm's 1.78, down 3%.
Likeliest: As I said, there are so many examples of lead-in "boosts" providing no help that I hesitate to go really big here. That said, reality shows and procedurals often mix fairly well, and I could see this pairing working better than a less compatible union like Two and a Half Men/Person of Interest. If nothing else, it should at least improve big on some of the bad early fall numbers from last season. I'll give it +15% to a solid 2.10.
|Slot Orig Avg|
|Sons of Anarchy||FX||9/10||2.31||+14%|
The Network to Watch: This is a pretty interesting hour for all three networks, but I think I'll take NBC since I believe Chicago Fire has the biggest upside.
The Picks: I've liked what few eps I've seen of Person of Interest but never gotten into it regularly because I've always had a DVR logjam at Thursday 9/8c. If CBS really wanted me to get into it, this was the exact place to put it. I'll give it a shot.