Even as all the entertainment programs had bad seasons in this hour, Sunday 10/9c was down just 7% from last year. The continued hold of football and other big Sunday events helped. Another helpful factor here was the Super Bowl black-out, which pushed game action into nearly the entirety of this hour (whereas it was mostly the lead-out program The Voice the previous year). The Super Bowl is a big enough event that this kind of thing can really sway the numbers across a whole season.
|Betrayal (NEW!)||Slot Average|
|Slot Orig Avg|
|Premieres September 29||1.26|
|Best Case: It fits like a glove with Revenge. If only it had been here a year earlier when Revenge was still potent! Still, if much-maligned Revenge could be a major surprise a couple years ago, why not this one? It basically holds all of Revenge at a 1.65 and is a rare pleasant surprise on the ABC sked.|
Worst Case: This is another Red Widow, a show that fits much better in theory than in practice with Revenge. It ends up skewing much older, and Red Widow numbers if not worse are on the way: 0.90. Pulled within weeks.
Likeliest: I'm still surprised that Red Widow flopped that hard out of the gate, and (to me anyway) this show looks even worse. Because it at least seems somewhat compatible with its lead-in, I will say there's less chance here of a complete meltdown early compared with Tuesday's Lucky 7. It may end up going deep into the fall on struggling ABC. But no farther. 1.10.
|666 Park Ave|
|The Mentalist||Slot Average|
|Premieres September 29||3.34|
|Best Case: CBS gets lucky with NFL overruns that just barely extend into the 8:00 hour, so The Mentalist has fewer 10:5x start time results derailed by that. ABC's a non-factor in the fall and the cable dramas disappoint. The Mentalist inches up to a 1.75 and guts out a very improbable renewal.|
Worst Case: Finally, the ratings will get so disastrous that CBS can't forgo a major Sunday shake-up. The Mentalist drops 25% to a 1.29. While The Mentalist is dunzo, the good news is CBS actually comes up with some kind of post-game or 60 Minutes pre-emption plan for Sunday nights.
Likeliest: This show is in the same position as CSI: NY last year; it's the marginal drama that made it and becomes the Marked For Death drama the next year. NY actually didn't tank that hard last year, though, and I kind of doubt The Mentalist will either. I just don't think it can get that much worse for this CBS lineup. -12% to a 1.52. But it's definitely ending.
|Slot Orig Avg|
|Sunday Night Football||Slot Average|
|Premieres September 5||4.33|
There have been some promising preseason results. Last season's decline
was just a blip amid what has been an upward trend across the last
decade. It makes up last year's 0.2-point decline and adds another
couple tenths to 8.56.|
Worst Case: Last year saw SNF take its first raw numbers downturn since 2007-08 (and the Super Bowl take its first since 2009). With Tim Tebow now completely irrelevant, the casual audience keeps tuning out. Takes a drop nearly in line with entertainment ratings to a 7.60.
Likeliest: Football is going to remain an absolute beast, but I don't know that there's yet another explosion in it. My guess is we're pretty much at the saturation point societally. There aren't tons of new fans to be added. I'll give it another -2% this year to the same 8.00 I picked last year.
|Slot Orig Avg|
|Sunday Night Football|
|Masters of Sex||Showtime||9/29||NEW!|
|Witches of East End||Lifetime||10/6||NEW!|
The Talking Dead numbers are from last fall, when it aired at 11:00 (and were compared y2y with when it was still at midnight). The spring edition at 10:00 averaged a 2.08, probably more representative of what it'll do this fall.
The Network to Watch: Let's just say ABC is the least uninteresting in this very uninteresting hour on broadcast.
The Picks: Talking Dead. Might try the new shows on b'cast/cable but don't particularly see sticking with 'em.