Sunday, September 22, 2013

Fall 2013 Best Case/Worst Case, Sunday 10/9c

The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Sunday 10:00 12.6 1 -7% 6 36.0 4 35% 1

Even as all the entertainment programs had bad seasons in this hour, Sunday 10/9c was down just 7% from last year. The continued hold of football and other big Sunday events helped. Another helpful factor here was the Super Bowl black-out, which pushed game action into nearly the entirety of this hour (whereas it was mostly the lead-out program The Voice the previous year). The Super Bowl is a big enough event that this kind of thing can really sway the numbers across a whole season.

The Shows:

Image Betrayal (NEW!) Slot Average
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres September 29 1.26
Best Case: It fits like a glove with Revenge. If only it had been here a year earlier when Revenge was still potent! Still, if much-maligned Revenge could be a major surprise a couple years ago, why not this one? It basically holds all of Revenge at a 1.65 and is a rare pleasant surprise on the ABC sked.

Worst Case:
This is another Red Widow, a show that fits much better in theory than in practice with Revenge. It ends up skewing much older, and Red Widow numbers if not worse are on the way: 0.90. Pulled within weeks.

I'm still surprised that Red Widow flopped that hard out of the gate, and (to me anyway) this show looks even worse. Because it at least seems somewhat compatible with its lead-in, I will say there's less chance here of a complete meltdown early compared with Tuesday's Lucky 7. It may end up going deep into the fall on struggling ABC. But no farther. 1.10.
666 Park Ave
1.51 1.39
Happy Endings
0.95 1.07
Red Widow
0.97 1.02

Image The Mentalist Slot Average
Premieres September 29 3.34
Best Case: CBS gets lucky with NFL overruns that just barely extend into the 8:00 hour, so The Mentalist has fewer 10:5x start time results derailed by that. ABC's a non-factor in the fall and the cable dramas disappoint. The Mentalist inches up to a 1.75 and guts out a very improbable renewal.

Worst Case:
Finally, the ratings will get so disastrous that CBS can't forgo a major Sunday shake-up. The Mentalist drops 25% to a 1.29. While The Mentalist is dunzo, the good news is CBS actually comes up with some kind of post-game or 60 Minutes pre-emption plan for Sunday nights.

This show is in the same position as CSI: NY last year; it's the marginal drama that made it and becomes the Marked For Death drama the next year. NY actually didn't tank that hard last year, though, and I kind of doubt The Mentalist will either. I just don't think it can get that much worse for this CBS lineup. -12% to a 1.52. But it's definitely ending.
Slot Orig Avg
The Mentalist
y2y Label
-34% marginal1.80 1.85
True Sitch
1.77 -3%
Last Pick Miss
2.25 -23%
2012-13 Slot
Sunday 10:00

Image Sunday Night Football Slot Average
Premieres September 5 4.33
Best Case: There have been some promising preseason results. Last season's decline was just a blip amid what has been an upward trend across the last decade. It makes up last year's 0.2-point decline and adds another couple tenths to 8.56.

Worst Case:
Last year saw SNF take its first raw numbers downturn since 2007-08 (and the Super Bowl take its first since 2009). With Tim Tebow now completely irrelevant, the casual audience keeps tuning out. Takes a drop nearly in line with entertainment ratings to a 7.60.

Football is going to remain an absolute beast, but I don't know that there's yet another explosion in it. My guess is we're pretty much at the saturation point societally. There aren't tons of new fans to be added. I'll give it another -2% this year to the same 8.00 I picked last year.
Slot Orig Avg

Sunday Night Football
y2y Label
-2% megahit8.13 7.85
True SitchCelebrity Apprentice
7.89 +3%
Last Pick Miss1.62 1.75
8.00 +2%
2012-13 Slot
Sunday 8:30

The Cable:

ShowNetworkPremieres Avg y2y
Talking DeadAMC10/131.09+100%
Masters of SexShowtime9/29NEW!
Witches of East EndLifetime10/6NEW!

The Talking Dead numbers are from last fall, when it aired at 11:00 (and were compared y2y with when it was still at midnight). The spring edition at 10:00 averaged a 2.08, probably more representative of what it'll do this fall.

The Network to Watch: Let's just say ABC is the least uninteresting in this very uninteresting hour on broadcast.

The Picks: Talking Dead. Might try the new shows on b'cast/cable but don't particularly see sticking with 'em.


Spot said...

Don't worry, Mr. Spot. It's not just you. Everyone thinks Betrayal is flaccid and worse than Red Widow. At least one critic named it THE worst show of the fall. I think audiences will agree, and in a big way.

I agree that The Mentalist is done no matter what it does. They've announced plans to wrap the central arc by the end of the calendar year, which is actually really weird now that I think about it. There are also cast departures, which are a surefire sign of cost reductions for an aging show about to end (in fact, TV Tropes has a name for this phenomenon - Final Season Casting). I think it lands somewhere between Likeliest and Worst.

My picks:
Gonna stick w/ The Mentalist despite my overall boredom w/ it. Everything else is even worse. Sunday Night Football when Steeler Nation shows up.

Spot said...

Last One!

- Betrayal: I can definitely see the upside potential that may exist and that we might be overlooking but every instinct I have screams that it will flop. If Revenge couldn't even launch the better marketed 666 when it was at it strongest level, I don't see why it would be able to launch a show nobody seems to care about when it is fighting for its own life. However, I also say that it is probably able to remain there for the whole fall a la Last Resort last year. A 1.02

- The Mentalist: I think it will be in trouble come season's end but I doubt it will be due to further drops, things are already pretty bad as they are. The show did deserve better treatment than being thrown to the Sunday wolves though, its Thursday numbers were very respectable. 1.48, down 18% and probably dunzo but I don't rule out another season if the good wife collapses even more.

My picks: Nothing (Talking Dead occasionally)
Network to watch: ABC, but yeah, I agree, not too interesting

Spot said...

Today would have been bad for The Mentalist. Football ended at 7:59, although, I would guess that CBS would have been able to get 1 minute of immediate post-game coverage.

Spot said...

To me, CBS is the network to watch if only because I think the Eye won't revamp Sunday unless The Mentialist (and The Good Wife) tanks hard. Betrayal is just going to hang there post-Revenge since it was announced as a limited-season thing.

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