Monday, September 16, 2013

The Question, Monday 9/16/13: Will Sleepy Hollow Get Off to a Sleepy Start?


The 2013-14 season in broadcast scripted programming is finally upon us with Fox's premieres of old, reliable Bones and new, cuckoo-bananas Sleepy Hollow. With multiple midseason Fox dramas in the pipeline and tight real estate, these two shows may well end up in a head-to-head duel for a weeknight timeslot. One would think Sleepy Hollow winning that duel means it has to get off to a better start than its lead-in tonight, because it needs to be able to withstand some of the typical post-premiere slippage. I have to say that the reviews are a lot better than I was expecting based on the initial impressions at upfronts. Will Sleepy Hollow get off to a sleepy start? That's The Question for Monday, September 16, 2013.

Recent Fox Drama Premieres
3.1 (Terra Nova, 9/26/11)
1.7 (The Finder, 1/12/12, 2.5 Bones)
3.3 (Alcatraz, 1/16/12)
3.9 (Touch, 1/25/12, 7.1 American Idol)
1.5 (The Mob Doctor, 9/17/12, 2.4 Bones)
3.2 (The Following, 1/21/13, 2.5 Bones)

The recent drama premiere history on Fox suggests there's not much room for a middling premiere; everything's either above 3.0 or well below 2.0. But I'm saying this goes somewhere in the 2's nonetheless. I'd be surprised if this concept has anywhere near as little opening appeal as The Mob Doctor, and I'd be surprised if it can get up to the Terra Nova/Alcatraz/Following low-3's level as well. So I'm probably gonna be surprised. I just don't know in which direction.

Over/Under: 2.45.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

13 comments:

Spot said...

UNDER. Haven't been right yet, though.

Spot said...

My guess is that you are actually wrong by being right (lol) meaning that 2.4-2.5 is actually my guess. I don't see either a huge premiere or a terrible start. But as you went exactly for the middle range I wanted you still make me guess. I will go over just because I think it is too depressing to start under the fall.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Good line. I was thinking either 2.4 or 2.5. I'm going to go with Under.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Under at a 1.9.


I am only 1-3 right now (my one correct pick was MSQ)

Spot said...

Over. Good reviews along with an odd premise that initially suggested so-bad-its-good will hopefully mean it gets "serious" viewers and the ironic 'The Cape' watching crowd.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under at 2.2.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Over.


Incidentally, anyone have guesses on Dancing with the Stars? I would have gone 3.15 on that one.

Spot said...

Under. More like Lone Star than The Following.

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