Monday, September 2, 2013

Fall 2013 Best Case/Worst Case, Monday 8/7c

The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Monday 8:00 10.0 7 -14% 19 34.6 7 29% 7

Monday became the biggest night of the week for entertainment programming in 2012-13, but the overall broadcast viewing still took a well above average year-to-year dip in the 8:00 and 9:00 hours. The continued meltdown of Dancing with the Stars plus the CBS comedies coming back to earth were the main factors. CBS' 8:30 occupants did a particularly egregious job trying to hang with last year's huge 2 Broke Girls average.

The Shows:

Image Dancing with the Stars Slot Average
Premieres September 16 2.18
Best Case: Having results shows on Monday gets more viewers to stay. The cast is actually kind of splashy for once. And it gets a head start on The Voice, which helped to a small extent in the spring season. Let's say it breaks even: 2.26.

Worst Case:
Trimming to one night did basically nothing for So You Think You Can Dance. CBS' competing comedy block rebounds. And four straight DWTS seasons have dropped by 20% or more. Why stop now? Drops nearly 30% more to a 1.60, but probably still gets a spring season because of ABC's problems elsewhere.

I might modify this next week if the cast announcement on Wednesday is a really big deal, but I see this show continuing to erode. The spring 2013 season did a little better, so I think the bleeding is slowing, but it still loses 16% to a 1.90 and becomes a sub-league average show for the first time.
Slot Orig Avg
Dancing with the Stars Fall
y2y Label
-31% solid2.26 2.16
True SitchThe Bachelor
2.16 +5%
Last Pick Miss2.71 2.54
2.90 -22%Dancing with the Stars Spring
2012-13 Slot
Monday 8:002.29 2.33

Image How I Met Your Mother Slot Average
Premieres September 23 2.60
Best Case: The 31% finale spike means there's a ton of interest in the resolution of the main storyline. A massive premiere, massive finale and a surprisingly effective season-long plan keeps the mid-section high. +10% to a 3.52.

Worst Case:
A whole season revolving around a single wedding weekend? Meh. There's interest in the end, but not in watching this creatively spent show on a week-to-week basis leading up to the end. Drops another 15% to 2.72.

I'm admittedly rather skeptical about the concept behind the final season. Still, there's almost no doubt there will be some large numbers for the premiere and the finale. Though I expect a somewhat underwhelming mid-section of the season with some mid-to-upper 2's, it all adds up to only a tiny 3% year-to-year drop to a 3.10.
Slot Orig Avg
How I Met Your Mother
y2y Label
-21% big hit3.20 3.15
True Sitch
3.15 +2%
Last Pick Miss
3.30 -3%
2012-13 Slot
Monday 8:00

Image We Are Men (NEW!) Slot Average
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres September 30 2.30
Best Case: Partners set the bar really low in this slot, and We Are Men is able to do about the same retention out of an up-year-to-year HIMYM. That keeps it around into 2014 for a tiny episode extension, but CBS has enough other options that it ends there. 2.30.

Worst Case:
The HIMYM audience has no interest whatsoever in this crap. It does a few ticks worse than Partners despite HIMYM even or better in the opening weeks, and CBS has many more replacement options this year. Two and through at a 1.80.

This is my pick for first cancellation of the fall, though the fact that it doesn't premiere till week two makes me worried about that. If you're going to try to get into single-cams, CBS, do it with an actual good show. Looks horrible next to HIMYM, and CBS has too many replacements to let it into November sweeps. 1.93.
2.07 1.71
Rules of Engagement
2.31 2.05

Image The Voice Slot Average
Premieres September 23 3.35
Best Case: With DWTS increasingly irrelevant and NBC's lineup more stable as a whole, The Voice is able to nearly replicate last year's fall ratings. 4.35.

Worst Case:
Did you see how far The Voice fell off in the summer months? That was actual damage to the franchise. (Summer eps not included in the spring average on the right, BTW.) It can't even get back to a 4.0 for the premiere, and low 3's become the norm once blind auditions are done. Down 21% to a 3.48.

I don't put a ton of stock in what happened during the summer, because I think the downward momentum in overall viewing snowballed it a little bit. Still, I don't see yet another surge in this show at this point. It posts a healthy, league-average drop kind of season at 3.96.
Slot Orig Avg
The Voice Fall
y2y Label
megahit4.38 3.99
True SitchThe Biggest Loser
3.99 +10%
Last Pick Miss2.25 2.14
3.66 +20%The Voice Spr
2012-13 Slot
Monday 8:004.48 4.31

Fox note: I'm not Best Case/Worst Case-ing Fox's "late fall" shows, because I have so little confidence in that plan actually coming to pass. I may do another post in late October or early November once that (plus the other inevitable schedule moves) comes to pass.

Image Bones Slot Average
Premieres September 16 1.78
Best Case: Sleepy Hollow doesn't exactly flop, but it's not so strong that Fox wants to risk putting another unknown before it. So Bones stays put and, with a better fall companion, drops just 5% to a 2.03.

Worst Case:
Bones is mediocre out of the gate, but Sleepy Hollow does well enough to stay on Monday, so Fox goes through with their "late fall" plan. On Friday, Bones pulls low 1's and ultimately comes to an end. 1.44.

Almost Human gets its November Monday premiere, and Bones and Sleepy Hollow are battling it out for the right to join it. I say Bones wins that battle, takes a long hiatus during the winter for Almost Human to play out the string, then returns and ends up airing everything on Monday. Drops 12% to a 1.88.
Slot Orig Avg
y2y Label
-11% solid2.14 2.07
True Sitch
2.06 +4%
Last Pick Miss
2.09 +2%
2012-13 Slot
Monday 8:00

Image Hart of Dixie Slot Average
Premieres October 7 0.42
Best Case: While Beauty and the Beast isn't much of a companion, it's at least a better option than Emily Owens and Cult. So Hart of Dixie holds up OK in its return to Monday, dropping 9% to a 0.50.

Worst Case:
This is the CW's "surrender night," and the drops just tend to snowball for CW soaps in these situations. Drops nearly 30% to a 0.39 and, with the CW succeeding on several other nights, they don't even bother with a season four.

Maybe I'm just feeling burned because I expected this show to hold up very well last year, but last year was this show's big chance to truly establish itself for a deep, One Tree Hill-esque run. It's all downhill from here, and it's probably downhill even faster. I'll say -20% to a 0.44, which quite possibly gets it one more renewal, but this is probably its last chance as a weeknight anchor show.
Slot Orig Avg
y2y Label
-14% marginal(CW)0.49 0.50
True SitchThe Carrie Diaries
0.57 -4%
Last Pick Miss0.45 0.46
0.64 -14%
2012-13 Slot
Tuesday 8:00

The Cable:

ShowNetworkPremieres Avg y2y
Monday Night FootballESPN9/95.38-8%
WWE RawUSAongoing1.46-13%

The Network to Watch: At least in the opening weeks of the season, it's CBS, where I doubt they will be all that patient with We Are Men. I don't see any of their other new comedies being big problems (at least initially), so this show will have to overachieve just to air more than a handful of episodes.

The Picks: In the "early fall," I'll be watching How I Met Your Mother and Hart of Dixie. I guess I will try We Are Men, but I'm doubtful it'll be a keeper (even if it's a keeper on the schedule).


Spot said...

I will go:

DWTS- 1.73
HIMYM- 3.41
We Are Men- 1.58 (but it airs 9)
The Voice- 3.67
Bones- 1.75
Hart of Dixie- 0.49

Spot said...

If Ted meets the Mother not in the series finale, but - as suggested by showrunners - during the midseason, it may have good ratings even between the premiere and the finale, and I think that would make the show be up just a tiny bit on average :-)

I think The Voice will have a significant drop, but will be still strong, and it won't fall as much as DWTS will (which I think has a painful death written all over it).

Other thoughts: Bones will stay on Monday, We Are Men might be this season's The Neighbors - a surprisingly well holding show that everyone thought would be cancelled first, Hart of Dixie once again will strugle because of The Voice.

Spot said...

Bones is my viewer's pick. There's nothing else of interest in this slot.

Spot said...

If the rumor about some of the Dancing with the Stars cast is true (Valerie Harper, Snooki, etc.), I think the show could stay above a 2.0. I am a little surprised that ABC didn't give the show a 2-week headstart from The Voice to build more momentum.

We Are Men doesn't look like it's long for this slot. The thing to watch on CBS is which midseason sitcom fills in. My gut says a quick cancellation means Mike & Molly, but if Men is able to limp along enough into January, Friends with Better Lives gets the post-HIMYM try.

Meanwhile, I expect The Voice and Bones to just plug along. Dixie may be this season's Happy Endings: will the desire for a "proper" syndication package override weak ratings and give the drama a fourth season? Not in Dixie's favor is how Nikita is only getting a 6 episode send-off this year and ending its run with 73 episodes.

Spot said...

I don't see how DwtS can rebound. If Pam Anderson, Bristol Palin AND Kirstie Alley couldn't bring them back, I don't know who else could. The competition isn't letting up, save CW. Low 2 debut, mid-to-high 1s the rest of the way.

I'm expecting some boost from HIMYM, at least mid-3s for the premiere and finale and at least high 2s from the episode where Ted meets The Mother and every episode after that.

WaM...well...I don't know. It's so off brand. It looks like it'll be about hijinks, so it could have gone with BBT. Eh. I say it floats along in the low-to-mid 2s for 13 episodes, and gets cancelled. I don't see it completely imploding the way everyone else does.

Voice: Down about 5%. Still monstrous.
Bones: Down about 10%. Ends.
Dixie: Down about 10%. Ends.

Spot said...

I have been crazy busy lately so I am just catching up now! First though: so happy that this is finally back, I love this feature of your website (one of the many I love)! This year, I decided to try to predict myself some of the numbers. I am sticking with scripted stuff though.

DWTS: I don't see it rebounding. I do think the bleeding will slow down a bit, but they didn't do, IMO, the only move they could to save it which was to move it away from the voice (sundays!), so it will be in bad shape. I think this is the last year we see it going two cycles a year.

The Voice: I generally agree with you. I don't see it taking another big jump but I make nothing of its numbers during summer, which btw, were still pretty respectable.

How I Met Your Mother: I am predicting a 3.49. Way closer to your best case scenario than your expected one, but I really think this is one of the few that can benefit from a huge final season bounce. Then again, maybe I am too optimistic

We Are Men: Here the trick is how many episodes it airs. The fewer episodes it airs, the higher its number is. Currently, my somehow random prediction is that it airs 3 episodes and averages a 2.2 before being pulled.

Bones: This is a mess to predict. I actually included the friday move in my predictions, so my number is obviously lower than yours. All said, I am going with a 1.52, which should be enough for it to get a last 10th season on fridays. I do however think that you are probably right and that this friday move will never happen. If that is the case, then I predict a 1.90, pretty much in line with your prediction.

Hart of Dixie: I am in line with you. I have it at 0.47. I agree that it should have done better last year and that if it didn't happen, it won't be now most likely. The real tragedy is that it is still facing the voice though, so if that was the issue, it will still be the issue. Ultimately though, I will be surprised if it doesn't have a spot on fridays for a final season the year after.

Hart of Dixie:

Spot said...

It still leaves me absolutely flabbergasted that every single network has a singlecam/multicam hour (in one order or the other) this season. I figured CBS, if nobody else, would have been smart enough to avoid that - although if they only had one worth greenlighting, obviously that has to stay on an island. And they did (Crazy Ones), and it is on an island (between Millers and 2.5 Men), but... then they pick up another and put THAT on an island too? Mike & Molly will be in this slot by mid-October (and not do too badly).
The Voice will start to crumble a bit, but it's stemmed the bleeding at NBC, started the bleeding at FOX (which will have an ugly fall), and as far as I'm concerned anything it does from here will be a bonus for the peacock.

Spot said...

You are right, it is puzzling how everyone decided to be a good idea to mix up single cams and multi cams this year, I don't know why that happened.

Spot said...

I seriously doubt the cw will cancel hart of dixie this season. IMO, it has final season on fridays following america's next top model written all over it.

Spot said...

You make a good point about the Nikita 6 episode order, it is puzzling to me and certainly puts a lot into question. However, at the end of the day, I think Dixie will be back for a final season on Fridays. As for the CBS thing, I don't know why CBS didn't put Friends with Better Lives there to begin with, it seems bound to be the successor of How I Met Your Mother if the quality is there. I think Mike and Molly will take over though, as I don't see We Are Men lasting until January at all. But I have no idea where CBS will put Friends with Better Lives and Bad Teacher. I think one getsa post TBBT run forcing a winter hiatus for the millers but the second one is hard to say. Maybe a summer burnoff?

Spot said...

We are both very optimistic about How I Met Your Mother (I have it at 3.49)!

Spot said...

It is a final season that actually has a lot of momentum going for it. I also am reacting strongly to its finale ratings combined with its reveal.

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