Tuesday, September 24, 2013

The Question, Monday 9/23/13: Which 10:00 Drama Takes Viewers Hostage?


At long last, the 2013-14 season is upon us, and premiere Monday starts things off with an all-too-familiar clash between NBC's The Voice and CBS' comedies. But the biggest intrigue this time may come in the 10:00 hour, when each network debuts its top new drama of the season. NBC gives its best timeslot to James Spader's The Blacklist, while CBS looks to keep Under the Dome's limited event series momentum rolling in the same timeslot with Dylan McDermott's Hostages. Both are fairly well-reviewed, and based on yesterday's NFL/Emmys, neither one is going to be able to point to lack of promotion as an excuse. Which 10:00 drama takes viewers hostage? That's The Question for Monday, September 23, 2013.


Recent CBS Drama Premieres Recent NBC Drama Premieres
2.9 (Unforgettable, 9/20/11)
3.1 (Person of Interest, 9/22/11)
1.5 (NYC 22, 4/15/12)
2.5 (Vegas, 9/25/12)
3.1 (Elementary, 9/27/12)
1.8 (Golden Boy, 2/26/13)
3.3 (Under the Dome, 6/24/13)
1.6 (The Playboy Club, 9/19/11, out of 1.9 The Sing-Off)
1.8 (Prime Suspect, 9/22/11, 3.3 Whitney)
2.1 (Grimm, 10/28/11, 1.1 Chuck)
1.4 (The Firm, 1/8/12, 1.7 Dateline)
3.8 (Smash, 2/6/12, 7.7 The Voice)
2.0 (Awake, 3/1/12, 1.7 Up All Night)
4.1 (Revolution, 9/17/12, 5.1 The Voice)
1.9 (Chicago Fire, 10/10/12, 1.9 SVU)
2.0 (Deception, 1/7/13, 2.6 Biggest Loser)
0.9 (Do No Harm, 1/31/13, 1.9 Office)
1.6 (Hannibal, 4/4/13, 1.1 Go On)

Long term, I have serious doubts about both of these shows being able to succeed in the same timeslot, but I do think it's possible both could premiere well tonight. If Hostages wants to be the long-term winner, it's got to take advantage of tonight. The CBS comedy lineup should be at its most inflated, since we're meeting The Mother on How I Met Your Mother and there's the series premiere of Mom directly leading in at 9:30. I still give the edge to The Blacklist because it seems more hyped and I think The Voice will be a more compatible lead-in than comedies, but I see it being closer tonight than over the long-term.

Spread: The Blacklist beats Hostages by 0.55 points.

(Reply with "The Blacklist" if you think The Blacklist BEATS Hostages by 0.6 points or more, or with "Hostages" if you think The Blacklist BEATS Hostages by 0.5 points or less OR Hostages TIES/BEATS The Blacklist. Results based on finals to one decimal point.)

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

24 comments:

Spot said...

The Blacklist: 3.7
Hostages: 3.0


The Blacklist

Spot said...

Hostages at 3.0, Blacklist at 3.6. BLACKLIST.

Spot said...

Giving Hostages a 2.9 and The Blacklist 3.8 so The Blacklist.

Spot said...

Hostages: 2.5
The Blacklist: 3.3


The Blacklist

Spot said...

Hostages
I think it'll narrowly beat The Blacklist tonight but The Blacklist will be the long term winner

Spot said...

BLACKLIST. Hostages with a 2.8, Blacklist with a 3.6.

Spot said...

The Blacklist

Spot said...

The Blacklist: 3.4
Hostages: 2.9

Hostages

Spot said...

Your Voice lead-ins are off. Revolution had a 4.2 lead-in, while Smash had a 6.7.


For my pick:


I am going with HOSTAGES not only to cover, but to win outright (but still count me right if it covers!).


Hostages 3.5
Blacklist 3.3


Hostages will be so high because CBS will be able to carry the momentum from a massive HIMYM premiere (making a serious run at 5.0) through the night. The Voice will be moderately disappointing, only at about a 4.1.

Spot said...

Hostages, then.

Spot said...

The Blacklist will beat Hostages by 0.6 or more.

Spot said...

The lead-in ratings are correct, they're just for the last half hour rather than the full program.

Spot said...

Yes, I picked Hostages. In reply to Spot, I am amazed that The Voice would grow a full two points (to be one point above means that it would start one point below) over the night. That really puts The X Factor's lack of Week 2 growth into perspective.

Spot said...

Football promotion + huge hype > Emmys promotion + moderate hype.

Blacklist. I can see it pushing a 4.0.

Spot said...

under

Spot said...

My gut is actually saying the blacklist but I think How I Met Your Mother will surprise and bump the whole night. Hostages

Spot said...

W/ an assist from a Sunday Night stand (and fall, unfortunately) by the Steelers, I've seen plenty of ads for both. Hostages has NOT done a good job of selling itself. The Blacklist has. I don't think Spader anti-fans are enough to make a dent in this one. I also don't think How I Met Your Mother is going to lift all boats enough (if HIMYM itself even has lift).

The Blacklist, b__ch.

Spot said...

Blacklist

Spot said...

Blacklist

Spot said...

The Blacklist.

Spot said...

Blacklist

Spot said...

Hostages.

Spot said...

The Blacklist

Spot said...

Uh, Luke? The answer is either "Blacklist" or "Hostages", since this one is a spread instead of Over/Under.

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