Friday, September 20, 2013

Fall 2013 Best Case/Worst Case, Friday 10/9c

The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Friday 10:00 6.7 16 -7% 5 29.0 19 23% 16

The Friday 10:00 listings remained intact from 2011-12 to 2012-13 as 20/20, Blue Bloods and Dateline all stayed put. Though the only scripted option Blue Bloods had a pretty bad season, the hour remained relatively healthy year-to-year thanks to great holds from the two newsmagazines. Fall 2013 brings a shake-up as NBC finally gives Grimm a drama teammate in Dracula (though Dateline will stay here in the opening weeks of the season).

The Shows:

Image 20/20 Slot Average
Premieres September 20 1.43
Best Case: It was even last year because it was paired with Shark Tank. This year it'll be paired with Shark Tank for the entire season, and Shark Tank will get stronger. So 20/20 can go at least even again: 1.50.

Worst Case:
It was even last year largely because of election-related interest, and this show will "even out." A double-league average drop to 1.19.

It'll have Shark Tank all season, and I see Shark Tank dropping a bit less than average, so I'll say this just evens out a bit from any election bump and goes down by the league average to a 1.33.
Slot Orig Avg
y2y Label
+0% solid(Fri)1.47 1.62
True Sitch
1.60 -9%
Last Pick Miss
1.50 -3%
2012-13 Slot
Friday 10:00

Image Blue Bloods Slot Average
Premieres September 27 1.33
Best Case: Hawaii Five-0 reinvigorates CBS' Friday lineup, pumping a little extra demo interest into Blue Bloods. It really underachieved last year, so the bar is low. +4% to a 1.45.

Worst Case:
Blue Bloods has long been propped up by its pairing with the extremely compatible CSI: NY. Now that it's gone, its decline will be even faster than last year's -19%. Down 25% to a 1.05 and probably dunzo.

If I'm relatively down on the Friday move for Five-0, then I'm also down on its effect on Blue Bloods, which doesn't seem like a very good fit. I'm giving it another -16% to a 1.18, a little below Five-0. That should put it squarely on the bubble.
Slot Orig Avg
Blue Bloods
y2y Label
-19% solid(Fri)1.40 1.62
True Sitch
1.62 -14%
Last Pick Miss
1.63 -14%
2012-13 Slot
Friday 10:00

Image Dracula (NEW!) Slot Average
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres October 25 1.19
Best Case: A genre show to pair with Grimm is a brilliant idea, and NBC is going to get rewarded for it. Dracula is a very familiar name, and premiering near Halloween will lead to a huge (for Friday) premiere. Ultimately it builds a bit on an even-ish Grimm at a 1.60.

Worst Case:
It's a cheap co-production, and usually the viewers tend to pick up on that. Starts off as a decent pairing with Grimm, but the compatibility gets worse and worse. 0.85.

The trailers suggest that this show is a little more "out there" than Grimm, which has mostly been a pretty simple procedural with fantasy creatures. I say it doesn't quite bomb but goes several notches worse than Grimm's fall numbers, averaging a 1.18. There's a decent chance that this kind of level could get it another 13 eps next season.
Dateline Fri
1.25 1.41

The Cable:

ShowNetworkPremieres Avg y2y

The Network to Watch: NBC. There will be multiple shows cycling through here this season.

The Picks: Blue Bloods, my token CBS procedural. Try out Dracula.


Spot said...

You're missing the 5th and final episode of Animal Practice which aired on 10/25/2012 and got 1.2 in 18-49.

NBC also repeated the pilot on 8/21/12 which pulled 1.0.

Spot said...

The show I'm most interested in is Dracula. If it gets mid-1s, like I think, and Grimm gets high-1s with the occasional 2.0+, that line-up could run for two or three seasons. I'm interested to see if short-run programming is going to be the future of broadcast TV. Hannibal didn't really impress, at least ratings wise. I expect good things from CBS's Hostages, ABC's Betrayal, and 24 and Gang Related on Fox. They will definitely have the pressure on them to do well immediately, though, as it is unlikely that they will have enough episodes to go into traditional off-network syndication. Netflix and Hulu will be options, though.

Since I think Shark Tank will grow, I expect 20/20 to at least stand pat, but I'm expecting a couple percentage points worth of growth, still in the mid-1s.

I don't expect much from Blue Bloods anymore. It skews so abnormally old (How do you average only 1.8 million demo viewers out of over 10 million total) that I'm not confident in saying that there's any growth potential. I say it drops the league average to low-1s. That would give it 89 episodes, and CBS will give 13 episodes to finish up.

Spot said...

Nice to see NBC actually making a Friday schedule from start to finish that they actually plan on using, and could potentially work too. While Grimm has a more established/settled audience, I do think that it and Dracula could prop each other up even if Dracula turns out to be vampire bat-shit crazy (*rimshot*).

CBS could have a real Friday problem if Blue Bloods drops to low 1s, with Hawaii Five-O and Undercover Boss (due to late-season burnout) not far behind. At least Five-O has the syndication deal in hand while Blue Bloods does not.

If I'm home on Fridays I'm catching up on DVR'ed shows.

Spot said...

Blue Bloods: I think this will be a problem because I think the 9pm is going to be a problem. However, I say it holds practically all of H50's numbers. A 1.17 (basically the same as yours). That puts it in jeopardy at the end of the year, but I actually say it has some factor going for it such as what other show will CBS air t 10pm Fridays and the fact that its numbers will look acceptable compared to those of H50.

Dracula: I think it will hold Grimm's audience pretty decently but I don't see Grimm's audience being that huge (the show did have a somehow soft spring). Not airing on the lower viewed spring will help a lot though. I promise I am not copying your numbers today but I pretty much agree with you, a 1.16 and most likely another run

I don't go into the newsmagazines territory!

Network to watch: 100% NBC, I am actually pretty curious as to how it will do
My picks: Dracula, I think the trailer look awesome

Spot said...

I just can't get a bead on what level of expectations to have for CBS Fridays. My personal preferences are clouding my judgement.

Does the vampire craze still have a pulse? If so, Dracula's got a shot independent of Grimm's performance. If not, then Grimm's performance probably still won't matter, cause it'll go belly-up.

20/20 is 20/20. That is all.

My pick:
Blue Bloods. Also got Strike Back overlapping into the regular season, but that one's pretty effortless to keep up w/ On Demand.

Spot said...

I will be surprised if CBS Fridays do work. I really like H50 so I am not saying that I wish for it to happen but I just don't see it working.

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