Friday, September 14, 2012

Fall 2012 Best Case/Worst Case, Friday 10/9c


The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Friday 10:00 7.6 17 -3% 10 30.1 17 25% 17

This is the one hour of primetime that's gone entirely unchanged for a few years now (basically since the Blue Bloods premiere in fall 2010). All those shows were down just a touch in 2011-12, making this a fairly middling hour in year-to-year comparisons.



Image 20/20 Slot Average
Premieres September 14 1.40
Best Case: 20/20 was stronger in the second half last season when Shark Tank and Primetime: What Would You Do? showed up. With both of those plus a primetime Nightline leading in at various times plus a bit of an election bump, it's up a tick to 1.55.

Worst Case:
ABC's Friday lineup crumbles in the face of all the scripted offerings on other networks, and 20/20 leads out with a 10% loss to a 1.31.

Likeliest:
It looks like 20/20 basically broke even in the last election year. I think it gets slightly better lead-ins this year, so I'll give it a 3% gain to a 1.50.
Slot Orig Avg
1.41
1.45Occupants
20/20
y2y Label
-5% flop1.38 1.65
True2 Sitch
1.67 -13%
2011-12 Slot
Friday 10:00



Image Blue Bloods Slot Average
Premieres September 28 1.58
Best Case: Has mostly been quite consistent for a couple years. Why stop now? An even money 1.72.

Worst Case:
It finished last season weakly, Made in Jersey is a weak lead-in, and it's a rough fall for Blue Bloods as viewers choose the newsmagazine logjam due to election season. Ends up down 12% to a kinda worrying 1.51.

Likeliest:
Just keeps chugging along. I doubt slight upticks from the newsmagazines are going to take huge chunks of audience away from this show. I do think Made in Jersey will be a little less helpful than CSI: NY, so I'll say -5% to a 1.63.
Slot Orig Avg
1.72
1.72Occupants
Blue Bloods
y2y Label
-3% marginal1.72 1.94
True2 Sitch
1.94 -12%
2011-12 Slot
Friday 10:00



Image Dateline Slot Average
Premieres September 21 1.28
Best Case: Election bump! Up a tick to 1.42.

Worst Case:
League average drop to 1.20.

Likeliest:
I'll say it's maybe up a bit in October/November but that's cancelled out by slight drops for most of the rest of the season. Breaks even at a 1.32.
Slot Orig Avg
1.30
1.32Occupants
Dateline
y2y Label
-7% flop1.24 1.51
True2 Sitch
1.54 -15%
2011-12 Slot
Friday 10:00



Cable:

ShowNetworkPremieres Avg y2y
HavenSyfy9/210.52+0%



Network to Watch: I guess I'll say CBS, since I don't think Blue Bloods is that far away from being in shaky territory. But I think there's a pretty strong chance all three of these shows end up right back here a year from now.

My Picks: Blue Bloods. Perfect turn-off-brain Friday show.

4 comments:

Spot said...

I always thought the perfect turn-off-brain show for Friday was Strike Back.

Spot said...

Boss is on at 9pm, and its season finale is on October 5. What's Strike Back?

Spot said...

Yes, based on their airdates I consider those to be closer to summer shows than fall shows, and their ratings aren't significant enough for what I'm going for in the cable section anyway.

Spot said...

It's a show where a British dude and an American dude work for a top-secret section of MI-6, and they run around the world stopping terrorist threats - which for this season means trying to stop Tywin Lannister from building a nuclear warhead.

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