Wednesday, September 19, 2012

The Question, Wednesday 9/19/12: Can The X Factor Survive Survivor?

Tonight, CBS becomes the last big four net to join the 2012-13 entertainment programming fray with the twenty-fifth (!) season premiere of Survivor. It limped through the spring 2012 season, but an underperformance by last week's The X Factor premiere means this matchup could be tight. Can The X Factor survive? That's The Question for Wednesday, September 19, 2012.

Survivor Premieres Since Wed. Move The X Factor Last Week
4.0 (Fall 2010, 9/15/10  +11% year-2-year)
3.2 (Spring 2011, 9/22/11, -29%)
3.4 (Fall 2011, 10/28/11, -15%)
3.1 (Spring 2012, 1/8/12, -3%)
3.4 (The X Factor, 9/12/12)
Breakdown: 2.7 -> 3.0 -> 3.8 -> 4.0
3.1 (The X Factor, 9/13/12)
Breakdown: 2.8 -> 3.4

It was bad enough for The X Factor to lose in its premiere hour to The Voice, but the ratings were underwhelming enough that we now have to at least consider the possibility that it could lose to another unscripted show that it'll face more regularly. I'm not sure I'm buying an X Factor rebound in week two like The Voice has had, but there's actually more of a reason to believe, since X won't be facing The Voice or America's Got Talent heads up (at least not in originals). I think it ends up a bit stronger in the 8:00 hour but even-ish overall. And I see Survivor in the general 3.0 vicinity. In other words, I'm not picking the Survivor upset, but it's not totally impossible.

Spread: X Factor beats Survivor by 0.3 A18-49 points. (X Factor -0.3) 

We're comparing full program averages, not just the 8:00 to 9:30 head-to-head portion.

(Reply with "X Factor" if you think The X Factor beats Survivor by more than 0.3.
Reply with "Survivor" if you think The X Factor beats Survivor by less than 0.3 or Survivor beats/ties The X Factor.)

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline.

1 comment:

Matt said...

Survivor- 3.3 to X 3.1

But, it still counts if Survivor covers, right?

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