Tuesday, September 18, 2012

The Question, Tuesday 9/18/12: Is #Goon Immune?


Sorry, Go On haters, but the relative lack of Tuesday options means we're taking a second look at the NBC comedy that premiered pretty well last week. The bad news for Go On is that many other seemingly promising NBC comedy premieres have basically fallen apart in week two. Does that happen again, or is #Goon immune? That's The Question for Tuesday, September 18, 2012.

Go On premiere Week Two of Other Selected Comedies
3.4 (Tuesday 9/11/12 after 4.0 The Voice) -29% (Community, 9/24/09) (3.8 -> 2.7)
-22% (Outsourced, 9/30/10) (3.6 -> 2.8)
-30% (Mr. Sunshine, 2/9/11) (3.7 -> 2.6)
-24% (Whitney, 9/29/11) (3.3 -> 2.5)

I only included the week two comedies from last week's Go On post when they had pretty much the same lead-in both weeks. (Up All Night, which fell even more in a move from post-Got Talent down to 8:00, isn't so relevant.) Anyway, the point with these numbers is that we certainly shouldn't overreact to Go On's 3.4 demo premiere and declare it the next big hit. With that being said, I tend to think Go On may hold up a little better than those shows, at least for one week. Two reasons: 1) Last Tuesday's ep wasn't totally a premiere in the same vein. The pilot had aired three times already. And 2) A continued lack of competition can prop up ratings. It's got only the finale of struggling So You Think You Can Dance and low-rated repeats/specials in this slot.

Over/Under: 2.9.

By the way, new rule starting today: no entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. Should've said something like this from the beginning. I think there have only been a couple entries so far that violated that, and I'll let those fly.

8 comments:

Spot said...

Under. No further comment.

Spot said...

Over just barely, at 3.0. The Voice will probably be up, maximizing the lead-in and minimizing the second-week drop.

Spot said...

Over. Lack of competition and The Voice lead-in (especially if it's up week-to-week like Monday's episode) means Go On shouldn't drop more than four-tenths. My guess is a 3.1.

Spot said...

Under. (Breaking In 3.5 > 2.6)

Spot said...

Over- 3.2 (The Voice will be up from last week judging from last night)

Spot said...

Pass. Have no idea.
Or push, 2.9. If allowed and if more the merrier is preferred.

Spot said...

I will say over at 3.6. The New Normal goes up to 2.8.

Spot said...

over, 3.1, similar (aka no) competition, similar, maybe a bit lower, lead in, and small drop from second episode to third

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