Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Fall 2012 Best Case/Worst Case, Tuesday 10/9c

The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Tuesday 10:00 9.4 14 -9% 19 34.0 10 28% 14

This has been one of the most problematic weeknight hours for the broadcasters in recent years. Since the departure of Law and Order: SVU several years ago, there haven't really been any hits even by 10:00 standards, just a bunch of decent-at-times players like Body of Proof, The Good Wife and Parenthood. I'm not predicting it, but it's not a huge stretch to say that Sons of Anarchy could top all the broadcasters.

Image Private Practice Slot Average
Premieres September 25 1.75
Best Case: Though Private Practice was all over the place in its Tuesday run last season, it doesn't have any wild competition fluctuations and is able to settle in at the upper end of that range. Averages a 2.10, down by 8%, and ABC makes an effort to continue it post-Kate Walsh.

Worst Case:
Maybe the competition doesn't fluctuate, but Vegas and Parenthood are consistently a lot tougher than Unforgettable and Fashion Star. Ends after 13 eps with a 1.70 average, over a tick below its spring Tuesday average and down 25% overall.

Perhaps regular viewers feel differently, but I don't feel like it'd be a good idea for this show to go on beyond Walsh's departure. It may have fairly stinky lead-ins once the ABC comedies show up in the 9:00 hour. I'm saying it averages a 1.84, equals its spring average and ends after 13.
Slot Orig Avg
Body of Proof
y2y Label
-15% marginal1.74 1.57
Private Practice
True2 Sitch
1.98 +15%1.84 1.80
2011-12 Slot
Thu 10:00, Tue 10:00

Image Vegas (NEW!) Slot Average
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres September 25 2.28
Best Case: There are simply too many A-listers in this cast (by TV standards) for there not to be a lot of interest and buzz. Holds pretty much the full NCIS: LA demo audience and is the top 10:00 entertainment show on broadcast with a 3.08 average.

Worst Case:
This is CBS. Different doesn't work on CBS. There's interest, but it's mostly age 55+ interest, and sadly that doesn't mean much in the TV world. 2.00 average, gets a full season because of the names involved, but ends after one season.

Yes, "different" can struggle on CBS. But there's "bad different" like The Ex-List and Viva Laughlin, and then there's "good different." The "different" shows that really bombed out have been much sillier efforts than this show, while stuff a little more in line with the CBS drama brand has at least initially been able to do OK, like The Good Wife and Jericho. I'm still sad that this doesn't get the 9:00 slot because I think there's a significant upside that might be limited at 10:00, but I still see it beating the Unforgettable average. 2.60 and a second season.
2.25 1.94

Image Parenthood Slot Average
Premieres September 11 1.81
Best Case: As nice as the pairing was with The Biggest Loser over the years, a successful comedy block at 9/8c seems to provide a rejuvenation. Parenthood is down just 3% to a 1.87 and gets the full season order it should've had last year.

Worst Case:
There was the 2.0/2.1/2.2 Parenthood of early last season and then there was the 1.6/1.7 Parenthood of late last season. The latter shows up from day one, and eventually it drops even farther. Down 20% to a 1.54 and cancelled.

I think the comedy lead-ins will do all right, but the dynamic with Parenthood will be a bit of a wash compared to TBL. I say this show is down 10% to 1.74 and right back on the bubble.
Slot Orig Avg
y2y Label
-8% marginal1.93 1.70
Fashion Star
True2 Sitch
1.70 +13%1.59 1.39
2011-12 Slot
Tuesday 10:00


ShowNetworkPremieres Avg y2y
Sons of AnarchyFX9/112.04+22%
Covert AffairsUSA10/160.87

Network to Watch: Definitely CBS. Is Vegas doomed by its "difference," or is this a different kind of different? Silly optimist that I am, I lean toward the latter, but I wouldn't be shocked either way.

My Picks: My favorite broadcast drama is Parenthood, and I'm rather looking forward to Vegas as well.


Spot said...

I still think it's strange that CBS decided to launch both of their big new shows at 10. Admittedly, I'm not sure where else Elementary could have gone, and they apparently determined to not split up the NCIS duo, but still, it seems like a big risk to me.

Spot said...

It's ridiculous to me. Why do they have their biggest drama (NCIS) leading into their third-biggest drama (NCIS:LA) instead of Vegas or Elementary? There will be no drama competition at all from the other networks. That is a premium spot to debut a new drama, and the fact they've given both new shows a 10-15% penalty because of their time slots is lunacy.

Spot said...

Because Nina Tassler thinks NCIS: Los Angeles is incredibly lead-in dependent.
I couldn't agree more, I'm sure it'd took less than a season in other timeslot for it to collapse .

Spot said...

Agree with everything here. Also, I am a regular viewer of PP, have watched every episode since the beggining, and I think keep the show going without Kate Walsh is a blasphemy. I think the amazing Amelia Shephard should be shipped to Grey's, but that's it.

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