Friday, September 14, 2012

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 9/12/12: The III Factor


WHAT MATTERS:
  • We've got what I would call our first severe underperformance of the new season, and it's season two of The X Factor. It inched up in finals but still trailed the year-ago premiere by 23%. Responders went 5-1 picking "Under" my first huge miss, but even most of them saw the show going a lot higher than this. Clearly the so-called "Britney Spears Effect" was basically meaningless and greatly out-weighed by the general negative momentum for the singing competition genre. This 3.4 level was about where X settled at the very end of last season.
  • Meanwhile, NBC's move of a The Voice hour to Wednesday worked pretty well. That rating was well below the Monday/Tuesday premieres, but it routed X Factor head-to-head in the 8:00 hour. (It went 2.9/3.7 in the 8:00 hour while X went 2.6/2.9.) X Factor picked up at 9:00 after The Voice was over (3.7/3.9). The 8:00 -> 9:00 discrepancy was clearly more than it would've been without The Voice; last season's premiere breakdown was 3.7 -> 4.6 -> 4.5 -> 4.7 when there was much more competition at 9:00.
  • NBC rounded out its evening with the penultimate evening of America's Got Talent, riding The Voice lead-in to its best numbers since early July. They then previewed new comedy Guys with Kids, which considering the lead-in discrepancy I'd say did about the same as Monday's "meh" The New Normal preview.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue2
Viewers A18-49 Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Middle (SR) 3.61 0.9 -10% -25% 0.86
Suburgatory (SR) 2.93 0.9 +0% -40% 1.10
Modern Family (SR) 3.69 1.3 +0% -35% 1.44
Suburgatory (SR) 2.77 1.0 +0% -44% 1.12
Revenge (SR) 2.48 0.6 -37% -57% 0.71
Big Brother Wed 6.19 2.1 +0%n/a 2/9 -28% +0% -26% 2.33
Criminal Minds (SR) 5.54 1.2 +0% -27% 1.16
CSI (SR) 6.49 1.3 +53% +18% 1.38
The Voice Wed 10.89 3.4 -15%n/a 3/3 n/a -47% +172% 3.49
America's Got Talent Tue 11.05 2.9 +21%n/a 7/16 -24% -71% -3% 2.56
Guys with Kids 6.25 2.2 n/an/a 1/1 n/a -76% +29% 1.93
The New Normal (R) 3.80 1.3 -86% -13% 1.21
The X Factor Wed 8.73 3.4 n/an/a 1/1 -23% +131% +178% 3.44
Oh Sit! 0.88 0.4 +0%n/a 2/7 n/a +0% -20% 0.48
Supernatural (SR) 0.71 0.3 +0% -40% 0.32

KEY (click to expand)
Viewers - The total number of viewers (age 2+, in millions) that watched the program.
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Last - A18-49 percent difference fromious episode.
LeLa - A18-49 percent difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for theious episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes that have aired so far this season.
y2y - The show's A18-49 rating compared to its rating a year ago.
TLa - The show's A18-49 rating compared to the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - The show's A18-49 rating compared to the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True2 - The second edition of True Strength, a metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

6 comments:

Spot said...

Holy cow at X Factor. So it's probably going to settle around, what, a 2.8?

Spot said...

Fox loss is not a NBC win, just a Fox loss. As The Voice is 30+% down y2y for each of last 3 days, even more than X Factor's 25%. Both Fox and NBC (honorable mention to DOA Guys With Kids) are losers. Absurd singing competitions oversaturation actually makes ABC and CBS winners of last night in my eyes ... and likely winners of the entire fall season.

Spot said...

Shockingly low for X Factor. Might do better next week with reduced competition.

Dreadful start for GWK. Free Agents got 2.1 at 10:30pm last season and lasted four weeks. I can't see Animal Practice providing it much cover in its timeslot either. I see it quickly being pulled from Wednesday 8:30 and replaced with Whitney.

Spot said...

Wowowow. I was soooo off. I thought both shows would enjoy the extra attention. Instead, they've both ground each other down massively. The Voice is at mid-3s, and we haven't gotten to the Battle Rounds yet. AND Dancing All-Stars debuts in 11 days. AND this can't be good for Go On and TNN on Tuesday, either. Amazing.

SurvivorFan said...

Survivor will beat X Factor

Spot said...

NBC has to be pleased with the voice, but how much of that audience is going to drop away once we "really" get into the TV season? I'd guess almost a full ratings point

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