The most-viewed 10:00 hour of the week and the most-broadcast viewed 10:00 hour by a really wide margin because of Sunday Night Football. After football, things soured, as CBS' CSI: Miami didn't survive the season and neither did ABC's Pan Am or GCB, while NBC's Celebrity Apprentice was massively down.
|666 Park Ave (NEW!)||Slot Average|
|Slot Orig Avg|
|Premieres September 30||1.86|
|Best Case: Fits like a glove with the two sophomore dramas earlier in the ABC evening, and the highly recognizable cast helps it get out of the gate strong. Averages a 2.60, holding nearly all of Revenge, and cruises to season two.|
Worst Case: Terry O'Quinn and Vanessa Williams don't get enough screen time, and the show ends up being much more of a drag than Revenge ever was. Ends early in 2013 like Pan Am with a 1.60 average.
Likeliest: I'd be kinda surprised if this one totally bombs just because the cast includes a familiar face from like every ABC drama of the last decade. I also don't see it being a breakout. So I'm going right in the middle of the two cases and saying a 2.10. That'd put it in the discussion at season's end.
|The Mentalist||Slot Average|
|Premieres September 30||2.27|
|Best Case: This was undoubtedly a stronger show than CSI: Miami at the end of last season, so it should make a noticeable gain on Miami's slot average. Doesn't miss a beat and drops 5% to a 2.48.|
Worst Case: CSI: Miami blew a third of its audience in a Sunday move; can we really rule out a huge drop for this show? Down 25% to a 1.96, barely builds on The Good Wife, and lasts just a season on Sunday.
Likeliest: I don't see this show dropping nearly as much as Miami if only because Miami was coming from a much better situation two years ago (Monday after then-top scripted show The Big Bang Theory). I still think its results may end up looking disappointing, but I'm giving it a slight gain on the year-ago Miami results and one more year on Sunday. Down 14% to a 2.25.
|Slot Orig Avg|
|Sunday Night Football||Slot Average|
|Premieres September 5||5.27|
|Best Case: It's football! I mean, why wouldn't it just grow into perpetuity? America loves its foooooooootball! Give it another 5% and an 8.78 average.|
Worst Case: Have you seen some of these kinda stinky preseason ratings? Also, people become more informed on the concussion issues that are starting to hang over the sport. Down 10% to a still ridiculous 7.52.
Likeliest: I think the bad preseason ratings are about matchups to some extent, but I also believe football cannot possibly grow forever. I think it begins to inch down this year. The concussion issues are still a little too far off the radar to make much impact. All told, a 4% decline to an even 8.00.
|Slot Orig Avg|
|Sunday Night Football|
*-Note that this number in particular is heavily inflated by the one post-Super Bowl episode of The Voice that aired (approximately) in the 10:00 slot.
Network to Watch: The third straight Sunday hour where I think ABC is most interesting. I'm on the fence about 666 Park's prospects.
My Picks: Homeland. Try out 666 Park.