Sunday, September 16, 2012

Fall 2012 Best Case/Worst Case, Sunday 10/9c

The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Sunday 10:00 14.2 1 -2% 7 36.7 4 39% 1

The most-viewed 10:00 hour of the week and the most-broadcast viewed 10:00 hour by a really wide margin because of Sunday Night Football. After football, things soured, as CBS' CSI: Miami didn't survive the season and neither did ABC's Pan Am or GCB, while NBC's Celebrity Apprentice was massively down.

Image 666 Park Ave (NEW!) Slot Average
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres September 30 1.86
Best Case: Fits like a glove with the two sophomore dramas earlier in the ABC evening, and the highly recognizable cast helps it get out of the gate strong. Averages a 2.60, holding nearly all of Revenge, and cruises to season two.

Worst Case:
Terry O'Quinn and Vanessa Williams don't get enough screen time, and the show ends up being much more of a drag than Revenge ever was. Ends early in 2013 like Pan Am with a 1.60 average.

I'd be kinda surprised if this one totally bombs just because the cast includes a familiar face from like every ABC drama of the last decade. I also don't see it being a breakout. So I'm going right in the middle of the two cases and saying a 2.10. That'd put it in the discussion at season's end.
Pan Am
1.69 1.47
1.94 1.88

Image The Mentalist Slot Average
Premieres September 30 2.27
Best Case: This was undoubtedly a stronger show than CSI: Miami at the end of last season, so it should make a noticeable gain on Miami's slot average. Doesn't miss a beat and drops 5% to a 2.48.

Worst Case:
CSI: Miami blew a third of its audience in a Sunday move; can we really rule out a huge drop for this show? Down 25% to a 1.96, barely builds on The Good Wife, and lasts just a season on Sunday.

I don't see this show dropping nearly as much as Miami if only because Miami was coming from a much better situation two years ago (Monday after then-top scripted show The Big Bang Theory). I still think its results may end up looking disappointing, but I'm giving it a slight gain on the year-ago Miami results and one more year on Sunday. Down 14% to a 2.25.
Slot Orig Avg
CSI: Miami
y2y Label
-10% solid2.19 2.03
NYC 22
True2 Sitch
2.40 +9%1.33 1.31
2011-12 Slot
Thursday 10:00

Image Sunday Night Football Slot Average
Premieres September 5 5.27
Best Case: It's football! I mean, why wouldn't it just grow into perpetuity? America loves its foooooooootball! Give it another 5% and an 8.78 average.

Worst Case:
Have you seen some of these kinda stinky preseason ratings? Also, people become more informed on the concussion issues that are starting to hang over the sport. Down 10% to a still ridiculous 7.52.

I think the bad preseason ratings are about matchups to some extent, but I also believe football cannot possibly grow forever. I think it begins to inch down this year. The concussion issues are still a little too far off the radar to make much impact. All told, a 4% decline to an even 8.00.
Slot Orig Avg
Sunday Night Football
y2y Label
+1% megahit8.36 7.34
Celebrity Apprentice
True2 Sitch
7.34 +14%2.05 2.00
2011-12 Slot
Sunday 8:30

*-Note that this number in particular is heavily inflated by the one post-Super Bowl episode of The Voice that aired (approximately) in the 10:00 slot.


ShowNetworkPremieres Avg y2y

Network to Watch: The third straight Sunday hour where I think ABC is most interesting. I'm on the fence about 666 Park's prospects.

My Picks: Homeland. Try out 666 Park.


Spot said...

I think even the "Likely" situation for The Mentalist isn't going to be enough to get it a second year on Sunday. I think it's too likely that another vet is going to need to be "shown the door", so to speak, w/out actually being cancelled.

Moreover, I don't think the "Likely" scenario is going to be all that likely. I think it's going to slide in somewhere between CSI:Miami's year ago and whatever The Good Wife averages.

Also, I'm noticing the NYC22 numbers aren't present in the Mentalist box.

Spot said...

Thanks. I suppose if I think Elementary and Vegas are both going to work, plus they go with three new dramas, then they probably do have to can one of Mentalist or (heaven forbid) Good Wife. (Since my only open slots would be CSI:NY and Made in Jersey.) But at this juncture I still feel like they're both individually better than 50/50... we'll see. I also think there's at least a little chance they could cut Survivor or Amazing Race down to one cycle.

Spot said...

CBS has shown a willingness to tolerant lower ratings on Sundays, but I think it's more due to having some ownership stake in the shows (The Good Wife, CSI: Miami) and/or how it ages the network down (The Amazing Race). The Mentalist has neither of those luxuries, and after passing 100 episodes this season Warner Brothers may not feel the need to try cutting costs and getting CBS to sign on for another season if the show has bubble-esque ratings.

I think with 666 Park Avenue if your likeliest scenario comes to pass, the drama will see a sophomore season. ABC will have bigger black holes to schedule (Tuesdays and Thursdays, minus DWTS & Grey's Anatomy, respectively), and the network seems to want to be in the Vanessa Williams business.

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