Monday, September 24, 2012

The Question, Monday 9/24/12: Sitcoms vs. Singing Round One: Who Ya Got?


Welcome, one and all, to the 2012-13 season. Last season, Monday night was one of the busiest evenings of the week, and the two biggest players on broadcast were CBS' red-hot Monday lineup and NBC's megahit reality series The Voice. Despite some promise in week two, The Voice remains way down in the opening weeks of its fall 2012 season. Meanwhile, uncertainty abounds in the CBS lineup as they'll open the season without Two and a Half Men on Monday for the first time in a decade! They have newbie Partners at 8:30 and 2 Broke Girls debuting as the 9:00 heir apparent. Tonight, the rivalry is rekindled. Sitcoms vs. singing: who ya got? That's The Question for Monday, September 24, 2012.

CBS Monday Comedy Averages The Voice This Season
4.06 (How I Met Your Mother)
4.25 (2 Broke Girls)
4.96 (Two and a Half Men)
3.72 (Mike and Molly)
4.2 (Monday 9/10/12)
4.7 (Monday 9/17/12)
CBS Monday Comedy Finales The Voice vs. DWTS Arrival
3.7 (HIMYM, 5/14/12, 1 hour)
3.3 (2 Broke Girls, 5/7/12, 1 hour)
3.9 (Two and a Half Men, 5/14/12)
3.4 (Mike and Molly, 5/14/12)
-12% (3/19/12) (5.2 -> 4.6)

There are a lot of variables, but for me there are really two big questions: "Is 2 Broke Girls ready to be the centerpiece of CBS Monday?" and "How well will The Voice hold up?" The former is more of a gut feel thing. Even though I was a 2 Broke Girls hate-watcher, I think it's gonna be fine. On the latter, as pointed out above, the show dropped 12% in a similar situation on March 19, with Dancing With The Stars premiering and CBS going from repeat to original. But there are a couple additional factors in that number: 1) The competition swing on March 19 was not as drastic as what it'll face tonight; though DWTS premiered to a 3.5, ABC had gotten a 2.9 with The Bachelor the previous week. ABC comes into tonight having averaged just a 1.5 the previous Monday. And 2) Some of that -12% may not have been a "choosing the competition" situation; there may have simply been more battle rounds rejection. The show had already dropped 16% (6.2 -> 5.2) in the second week of battle rounds on March 12. Tonight, The Voice remains in the popular blind auditions phase. I see it regressing to about the 4.2 premiere number, maybe a little lower.

NBC won this matchup throughout their three months of duels in spring 2012, though the gap tightened by a ton over the course of the season. On The Voice's premiere night on February 6, it was ahead by 2.7 points (6.7 to 4.0), but by The Voice's penultimate Monday airing on April 30, it had gotten down to a virtual dead heat (3.5 for NBC vs. 3.475 for CBS). Of course, that was a late-season airing, so I think I have to give NBC the edge tonight since they're still in the blind auditions phase. But I'm guessing CBS pulls ahead later in the season, and maybe not that much later.

I was reeeeeeeeally hoping I could make it a straight pick'em. After The Voice premiered, I was afraid I was going to have to give some points to the NBC side unless The Voice held up really well. Then The Voice grew by double digits in week two, and now I think I have to give some to the CBS side. Sigh! Spread: NBC (The Voice) beats CBS (4x sitcoms) by 0.3 points from 8:00 to 10:00. (NBC -0.3)

Reply with "NBC" if you think NBC beats CBS by more than 0.3 from 8:00 to 10:00. Reply with "CBS" if you think NBC beats CBS by less than 0.3 from 8:00 to 10:00 or if you think CBS beats/ties NBC from 8:00 to 10:00.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline.

13 comments:

Spot said...

NBC.

Spot said...

NBC. Partners is going to drag down CBS's average.

Spot said...

CBS

Spot said...

I'm going to say NBC, but just barely. On an individual basis for the CBS comedies:


Mother: 4.2
Partners: 3.8
2 Broke: 4.5
M&M: 3.9


So that's a 4.1 average, and The Voice will get a 4.5.

Spot said...

CBS. Whatever effect 2.5 Men's absence plus Partners being a dud has is canceled out by The Voice dropping due to the increased competition on two sides.

Spot said...

CBS. Partners should have a decent premiere sandwiched between HIMYM & 2BG which will be very strong and take a chunk out of The Voice.

Spot said...

NBC will get a 4.4 with The Voice.


CBS:
HIMYM- 4.4
Partners- 3.6
2BG- 4.3
Mike & Molly- 3.6
Average: 3.975


Winner: NBC

Spot said...

Why can I not see my prediction. NBC

Spot said...

CBS
It should be close, but I think HIMYM and 2BG will bring up CBS average and competition will bring The Voice down slightly.

Spot said...

CBS

Spot said...

If you have that problem in the future, try messing around w/ the settings under the discussion tab at the top. Works for me like a charm.

Spot said...

CBS

Spot said...

CBS

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