Thursday, September 6, 2012

Fall 2012 Best Case/Worst Case, Thursday 9/8c


The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Thursday 9:00 10.8 8 -10% 20 35.3 9 31% 9

As with the other Thursday hours, 9:00 on Thursday is the least-viewed of the 9:00 hours on the five weeknights. It was not nearly as competitive last year as Idol/Big Bang-laden 8:00, and it had the second-biggest year-to-year drop of the whole week. NBC's The Office problems stood out the most, but ABC, Fox and the CW were all down in the general 10% range as well.




Image Grey's Anatomy Slot Average
Premieres September 27 2.81
Best Case: Grey's Anatomy was on fire late last season! That carries over into the fall and results in an improbable -2% to a 3.50.

Worst Case:
This show just hasn't lost its audience as quickly as many similar shows. Eventually the bottom has to fall out, and facing similarly-skewing Glee is as good a time as any. Down 23% to an ugly 2.74 and gets an announced final season in 2013-14.

Likeliest:
I'm a little torn here. It was undeniably a very hot show late last season, but can a show this old keep that up? And while I'm guessing it easily beats Glee, that show's gonna create a tough choice for a lot of women 18-34. All told I'll say it loses another 13% to a 3.10.
Slot Orig Avg
3.40
3.56Occupants
Grey's Anatomy
y2y Label
-13% big hit3.56 3.60
True2 Sitch
3.60 -1%
2011-12 Slot
Thursday 9:00




Image Person of Interest Slot Average
Premieres September 27 2.54
Best Case: It's a sophomore show with much bigger lead-ins than it ever had last year. It was stronger in the second half last season. All the ingredients are there for this to take a step toward big hit-dom. Up 25% to a 3.59 and in a horse race for top drama on TV.

Worst Case:
Though it was strong in the second half, it did sort of tail off in the last few weeks. Two and a Half Men is a disappointment at 8:30. An underwhelming slightly down 2.80. Readers flee in droves from SpottedRatings.com because all he talks about is how CBS should've had a fourth comedy hour.

Likeliest:
Maybe in a couple years this will be the top drama on TV, but I'd focus on being the top drama in the timeslot first. It's taking a step up in season two, but I don't think it'll be as massive as some think. I'm giving it 11% and a 3.20.
Slot Orig Avg
2.88
2.87Occupants
Person of Interest
y2y Label
solid2.87 2.69
True2 Sitch
2.69 +7%
2011-12 Slot
Thursday 9:00




Image The Office Slot Average
Premieres September 20 2.29
Best Case: The final season is announced. It never lost more than 7% in a season till it lost Steve Carell. Carell comes back late in the season. Breaks even with a 2.77.

Worst Case:
While the show had some high-rated "event" episodes like the Jim & Pam wedding, it never really built as much for the Carell departure as many thought it would. And with no Carell to be seen, the run-up to the finale disappoints. Down 16% more to a 2.33.

Likeliest:
I'm probably always gonna be overly optimistic on this show, but I think the return of Greg Daniels and a clear sense of direction will help big-time creatively. Gonna be tough to top Grey's and a trending-up PoI, but I'll say it drops just 5% and signs off with a 2.63.
Slot Orig Avg
2.64
2.77Occupants
The Office
y2y Label
-26% solid2.77 2.80
True2 Sitch
2.80 -1%
2011-12 Slot
Thursday 9:00


Image Parks and Recreation Slot Average
Premieres September 20 1.65
Best Case: The late-season post-Office struggles didn't really mean much. Just an end-of-season throwaway. It was solid in a much tougher 8:30 slot last year, and a rejuvenated Office lead-in will help. It was +16% two years ago when it moved to 9:30, and it's +16% again to a 2.13.

Worst Case:
The P&R audience is a lot more locked in than it was two years ago, as seen late last season. The Office lead-in doesn't mean much of anything. Down a couple percent to 1.80.

Likeliest:
Even in the disappointing post-Office run last spring, it retained about 75% of that show's audience. I'll say that happens again. Without accounting for my theory that it moves to make way for the Office spin-off at midseason, I'll say it's up 7% to a 1.97 and is one of the very few NBC comedy returnees to get renewed. (Maybe even the only?)
Slot Orig Avg
1.83
1.84Occupants
Whitney
y2y Label
-23% marginal2.20 1.83
Up All Night
True2 Sitch
1.91 -4%1.62 1.70
Parks and Recreation
2011-12 Slot
Thu 8:30, Thu 9:301.68 1.74




Image Glee Slot Average
Premieres September 13 2.81
Best Case: Splitting time in all these different places is actually a pretty fresh approach. Glee broke out airing after American Idol, and the talent show lead-in fits like a glove once more. Down only 8% to a 2.78.

Worst Case:
I've been saying for pretty much this show's whole run that it'd flame out after four seasons, so why change my mind after it went -32% in season three?! The creative stuff is a mess, Grey's Anatomy deals the deathblow, and another 30% flees, leaving it at a 2.10 and dunzo.

Likeliest:
I don't really see this ending well. At this point, The X Factor will do more to lift expectations than to actually funnel in new audience. Down 25% to a 2.27. But the one thing I didn't account for in my four-year flameout theory was Fox's lack of any real drama options. That means this is a pretty tough decision at season's end.
Slot Orig Avg
2.91
3.02Occupants
Bones
y2y Label
-32% hit2.76 2.23
The Finder
True2 Sitch
2.92 +3%2.23 1.67
Touch
2011-12 Slot
Tuesday 8:002.15 1.93




Image Beauty and the Beast (NEW!) Slot Average
0.58
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres October 11 0.75
Best Case: It's all about The Vampire Diaries compatibility. It's not too different like Nikita, but it's not a poor man's clone like The Secret Circle. A happy medium is found, and BatB holds a little over 80% of the TVD aud and cruises to renewal. 0.90.

Worst Case:
Yeah... that all sounds nice, but it doesn't mean much because the show is completely awful. Its 0.60 marks barely 50% retention and gets it canned in February so the net can put Cult in this slot.

Likeliest:
I dunno. Maybe this would be a clearer fail if I'd actually seen it. But people say Kristin Kreuk is not believable and it feels like they were saying that about Rachel Bilson this time a year ago. I'm sorry if this sounds patronizing, but I have a feeling "the Beast is too hot" is not gonna be that much of an issue. I'll say this, like TSC last year, hangs in there despite being creatively suspect and is another close call down the stretch. 0.72 average.
Occupants
The Secret Circle
0.77 0.59



Cable:

ShowNetworkPremieres Avg y2y
Thursday Night FootballNFLN9/132.49



Network to Watch: I'm taking CBS. As far as I'm concerned, CBS pretty much arranged their entire Monday and Thursday schedules for the benefit of Person of Interest, so there's some pressure on it to repay that favor. Considering its lead-in will almost certainly be bigger than what Rules of Engagment and Rob provided in season one, breaking even would probably be considered a disappointment.

My Picks: Only definite is the Office/Parks block, though I will probably stick out Glee at this point as well. I was kind of in and out on Person of Interest last year. May catch it during rerun season. I'll at least check out Beauty and the Beast.

4 comments:

Spot said...

If Person of Interest is going to be Super Bowl lead-out (and I see it as two horses race ending with POI win over 2 Broke Girls), then we can expect inflated POI ratings in 2nd half of season, with average even over 3.59 (your best case).

BTW, thanks for this great series of hourly previews

Spot said...

Thanks. I didn't really think about the Super Bowl aspect and I should have. I wouldn't include that episode itself in these averages, but it could certainly help the second half. I don't think it'd take it past 3.59, but ya never know.

I do agree that POI looks like the fave for that slot right now.

Spot said...

I'm surprised that CBS hasn't announced the lucky show yet. NBC spilled the beans early August last year. I believe that Person of Interest will get the nod, but 2 Broke Girls might win out.

Spot said...

They typically announce that much later than the other networks. Undercover Boss wasn't named till late December! http://www.thewrap.com/tv/ind-column/super-surprise-cbs-slots-undercover-boss-after-big-game-12049

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