Friday, September 28, 2012

The Question, Thursday 9/27/12: How Much Power in the CBS Power Hours?


Note: Another The Question on Last Resort going up at 2:30 ET, so stay tuned!

The CBS promo monkeys are using my "Power Hour" phrase for The Big Bang Theory / Two and a Half Men block. (I'm sure they got the idea from me!) But the reality is that CBS has potential for Thursday power that extends well beyond the first hour. Person of Interest is a sophomore drama with a likely much better lead-in, and Elementary seems like one of the better bets among the fall 2012 new crop. And in the second half of the 2011-12 season, this CBS lineup was one of the few genuinely hot evenings on all of TV. It's all pointing in CBS' direction; how much power in the CBS power hours? That's The Question for Thursday, September 27, 2012.

The Big Bang Theory (Prem/Avg/Finale) Two and a Half Men (Prem/Avg/Finale)
4.9/4.97/4.4 (+24% year-to-year) 10.7/4.96/3.9 (+11%)
Person of Interest (Prem/Avg/Finale) 8:30 and 10:00 Occupants
3.1/2.87/2.5 4.1/3.30/2.6 (Rob)
3.6/2.91/2.1 (Rules of Engagement) (+1%)
2.8/2.61/2.5 (The Mentalist) (-10%)

The best CBS did on Thursday night during the 2011-12 season was a 3.6, which they achieved on several occasions (premiere night with an hourlong TBBT and a couple times during the winter). They also hit a 3.5 a few times. It seems pretty plausible to me that they could beat that tonight if only because of upgrades at 8:30 and (maybe) at 10:00. Anything well beyond a 4.0 from Two and a Half Men would singlehandedly lift the lineup by at least a tick above its higher-end performances last season. And a reasonably strong premiere rating from Elementary could lift the lineup by another tick or so. That puts us at a 3.8ish if you simply assume The Big Bang Theory and POI come in near their high-points from last season. I actually think they could go beyond those numbers based on the late last season trends, but I'll say they hang right around last season's highs for this over/under.

Over/Under: 3.8 for CBS from 8:00 to 11:00. 

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline.

16 comments:

Spot said...

I don't think BBT is going to break the downward trend we've seen this week for basically everything, and I don't think POI is going to get a huge boost, so I'm going with:
BBT: 4.7
2.5 Men: 3.9
POI: 3.4
Elementary: 2.9
That averages out to a 3.725. Tough call. I think I might be overly optimistic for BBT and Elementary, so I'll say under.

Spot said...

The bloom is off the rest of CBS, even if Big Bang were to tick up of its own accord. Under.

Spot said...

I'm hoping TBBT holds up fine/better than the Monday comedies and that POI bucks the trend and sees a small uptick simply because of a bigger lead-in. Tough call for Elementary but my gut feeling is a lot better than it was for Vegas. Going to be very wrong once again and say over (just).

Spot said...

Over, barely, 5.5 / 4.5 / 3.4 / 3.2.
That averages 3.87, no? We do weight hour shows double more than half-hours?
Billie_Dawn's prediction then would be 3.57, not 3.73.

Spot said...

Yes, to get the nightly average you have to do ( (BBT + 2.5 Men)/2 + POI + Elem ) / 3

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

You're right, I was forgetting the extra weight.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

I have yet to do out the math, so I will make my prediction as I go.


TBBT: 5.3
2.5 Men: 4.8
POI: 3.8
Elementary: 3.2


Avg: 4.017- OVER

Spot said...

Under. CBS has clearly had a weaker premiere week, minus Tuesday, than I thought it would have (I'm looking at you, Hawaii Five-O). TBBT should launch to roughly Modern Family's numbers from last night, but the combination of Grey's Anatomy and Glee might suppress POI. Not to mention Thursday Night Football on cable...

Spot said...

Under. 3.6. I just don't see POI breaking records out of the gate (I love the show) and I also think people are somehow over-estimating elementary. Maybe it grows a la poi as last year, but I dont picture a breakout hit right out of the gate, especially seeing as poorly CBS has been doing lately. Let's see...

Spot said...

I have to say I don't know about CBS's procedurals now. Plus it's not like Elementary has had any positive buzz about a show that looks very Mentalist-y.


I think Big Bang goes into beast mode with a 5.3. It would be higher, but Thursday Night Football will take out a chunk. Same with 2 1/2 Men with 4.5. PoI will get 3.5 and Elementary 2.8, for an average of 4.0.

Spot said...

Over but I worry after Vegas Elementary might let me down

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

gosh thats a tough one, if you asked me last week, before revolution came in with a 4.1 and 3.5 at 10pm I'd say fat chance of anything much higher than a 3 in the 10 pm hour, but I definitly reckoned big band theory is capable of a 5.5ish rating, which should anchor the entire night, so I'm going to go over, but just just

Post a Comment

© SpottedRatings.com 2009-2018. All Rights Reserved.