Tuesday, September 25, 2012

The Question, Tuesday 9/25/12: Will Sitcoms Be Fox's Salvation?


Last fall, Fox had the highest-profile new show in The X Factor and the highest-profile new drama in Terra Nova. And yet it was their new comedy, Zooey Deschanel's New Girl, that out-premiered the both of 'em. With The X Factor fairly slow out of the gate and their drama Monday looking even more problematic, Fox again looks to Tuesday to provide some much-needed good news. Tonight, Fox gives New Girl the "Grover Cleveland" treatment, airing it non-consecutively at 8:00 and 9:00 to launch two new sitcoms, Ben and Kate (8:30) and The Mindy Project (9:30). Will the sitcoms be Fox's salvation? That's The Question for Tuesday, September 25, 2012.

Fox Tuesday Comedy Averages Fox Tuesday Comedy Premieres/Finales
2.16 (Raising Hope)
1.40 (I Hate My Teenage Daughter) (Tue)
3.23 (New Girl)
1.44 (Breaking In)
4.8 -> 2.8 (New Girl)
3.1 -> 1.8 (Raising Hope)

There are two new shows in this lineup, but I would argue the results from New Girl are at least as important and unpredictable. If it can't make much of a rally from its ugly spring numbers, this whole night could end up pretty hopeless from the get-go. It seems virtually impossible that the show gets back to last year's pre-baseball numbers, but I remain optimistic that a well-regarded sophomore sitcom can get some bounce-back from the late-season numbers on a premiere night with two other heavily-promoted newbies in the mix. Even on CBS' weak premiere Monday, 2 Broke Girls was able to build on the late-season numbers.

Over/Under for Fox from 8:00 to 10:00: 2.8.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline.

16 comments:

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Sorry, changed my mind: under.

NG has stiffer competition from Go On and I can't imagine B&K or Mindy growing from their lead-in. Love to be proved wrong.

Spot said...

Over. I think New Girl will rally (although not the point of last year's premiere) and Mindy will have excellent retention.

Spot said...

Over. I'm expecting a big bounceback for New Girl now that the younger audience isn't out as late

New Girl: 3.2
B&K: 2.8
New Girl 3.6
Mindy: 3.5

Spot said...

Over


NG- 2.9
B&K- 2.6
NG- 3.1
Mindy- 2.9
Average: 2.875

Spot said...

Under.
Yesterday CBS comedy lineup barely averaged over 3.0. Then I can't see weaker Fox lineup nowhere near 3.0 average.

Spot said...

Over. New Girl should be decent and it grew from it's Glee lead-in last year so Mindy could (hopefully) do the same. B&K will probably be the weak link but not enough to go under.

Spot said...

Under. I don't think there's enough momentum behind Ben and Kate to get it a good launch even w/ New Girl in its corner. And even if New Girl comes back in the mid 3s (i.e. right around post-baseball numbers) I think Mindy Project is also a weaker launch, too.

Spot said...

Over but only just and thanks only to NG

Spot said...

Under.
New Girl - 2.5
Ben & Kate - 2.4
New Girl - 2.9
Mindy Project - 2.7

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

I will go with Over but it's a biiig bet and I really think it will be hard to judge until the ABC comedies are in play as well (even if I think they will be the lowest rated ones, last night's 10pm proved how serious crossed audience is). As for today, as I've said over at tvbythenumbers, Ben and Kate and Mindy depend almost exclusively on what New Girl does and that's a big big question mark that I really cannot get into. So many factor:
- last fall's super ratings
- the sharp spring decline
- sophomore bounce for comedies
- lower viewership for CBS sticoms yesterday
- absence of Glee in the night
- competition with Go On

It just feels too hard to predict. I don't think I will be shocked (surprised, ok) either with a 2.0 or with a 4.0 for New Girl to be honest, anything can happen. That of course will determine what happens with the other two comedies. So basically Fox is in the hands of Zoey Deschanel at this moment.

Spot said...

But wasn't that mostly Partners crapping the bed? I don't expect B&K to drop that much compared to the others.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

over

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