Thursday, September 20, 2012

The Question, Thursday 9/20/12: How Far Off is The Office?


Tonight, NBC becomes the first network of 2012-13 to premiere its two-hour comedy block. This block of low-rated returnees has deservedly been much-maligned from a ratings standpoint. It seems quite likely that the final season of The Office will remain the highest-rated of that bunch, but continued struggles in its final season will spell certain ugliness for everyone else in the Thursday block. How far off is The Office as it begins the final season? That's The Question for Thursday, September 20, 2012.

The Office premieres The Office finales
5.1 (9/27/07, +19% year-to-year)
4.9 (9/25/08, -4%)
4.1 (9/17/09, -16%)
4.4 (9/23/10, +7%)
3.9 (9/22/11, -11%)
4.2 (5/15/08, +8% year-to-year)
3.5 (5/14/09, -17%)
3.4 (5/20/10, -3%)
3.9 (5/19/11, +15%)
2.3 (5/10/12, -41%)

What a brutal season it was for The Office; from a 3.9 on premiere night and a low-3's level in the first half of the fall to a low-2's level in the late spring. Will it bounce back up at least somewhat on a pre-premiere Thursday that isn't terribly competitive? Glee doesn't share a ton of audience with NBC comedies and I expect the NFL Network won't be quite as potent this week. Most previous Office premieres made fairly decent strides relative to the prior finale. (The only exception was last year, when the finale seemed kinda inflated by all the "Replace Michael Scott" stuff.) Maybe the SNL election special airing at 8/7c will lift up the rest of the NBC evening somewhat.

Over/Under: 2.65.

9 comments:

Spot said...

Over. While Glee will win the hour, the lack of other competitive options combined with the idea of this being the last season could get the show around a 3.0.

Spot said...

Under. It doesn't follow The Voice.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over, 3.1.

Spot said...

Under. 2.6

Spot said...

Under, 2.5. Really don't know, tricky line, but I go with: No Carell, no ratings.

Nice question would be: Who averages more in a 8-10 PM battle of comedies
- NBC's 4x originals:SNL Weekend Update Thursday / Up All Night / The Office / Parks and Recreation /
- CBS' repeats, 2x The Big Bang Theory + 2x Two and a Half Men

I would go with CBS, that's how much I trust NBC Thursday lineup.

Spot said...

Very tough one- Over 2.7

Spot said...

CBS would win that.

Spot said...

I think I will say 2.5. I think people are worn out with the show, and there's nothing in particular to look forward to.

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