Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Fall 2012 Best Case/Worst Case, Wednesday 10/9c

The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Wednesday 10:00 9.8 13 +2% 3 33.9 11 29% 12

Last year, this was one of the few up year-to-year slots, mostly because for once every network had a relatively healthy show. ABC and CBS often made massive year-to-year gains with the debut of Revenge and the move of CSI respectively, while Law and Order: SVU remained among NBC's top dramas despite its major drop year-to-year. This year, there's a lot of new blood as ABC and NBC each go with rookie dramas.

Image Nashville (NEW!) Slot Average
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres October 10 2.32
Best Case: Nashville is just as juicy creatively as previous occupant Revenge, but the country music angle bumps it up even another notch. 2.60, beats CSI and gets renewed comfortably.

Worst Case:
This has long been a cursed timeslot for ABC. It just so happens Revenge was the one program transcendent enough to defy that, but lightning isn't striking twice here. Ultimately a mediocre show with a 1.50 average and gone by 2013.

It was a risk to jettison the one thing that's worked in this hour in many years, but I'm feeling pretty positive about this show. Looks good in promos, reviews are solid, and I think the country music angle will be a bit of a draw. I'm giving it a 2.46, right on pace with Revenge, and a no-brainer season two.
2.46 2.22
20/20: Revenge for Real
1.30 1.32

Image CSI Slot Average
Premieres September 26 2.41
Best Case: Ted Danson and the Wednesday timeslot rejuvenated the show last year, and it was arguably stronger in the second half of the season. Drops just 3% to a 2.64.

Worst Case:
Yeah, the Wednesday move slowed the bleeding, but the more favorable timeslot caused just one blip in what's been a steeply negative trajectory in its later Thursday years. Down 18% to a 2.22 and moved to Friday for a likely final season in 2013-14.

Unless it gets super-ugly, I'm pretty sure CSI will be able to say at season's end that it officially outlived both of its spin-offs. I'm saying the show drops 11% to a 2.43 and sees the gap with Criminal Minds widen, creating an interesting decision for the CBS schedulers.
Slot Orig Avg
y2y Label
-8% solid2.72 2.35
True2 Sitch
2.35 +16%
2011-12 Slot
Wednesday 10:00

Image Chicago Fire (NEW!) Slot Average
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres October 10 1.69
Best Case: Though the SVU lead-in isn't worth much anymore, Chicago Fire is able to build at 10:00 against lighter competition. Its 2.00 average is a pleasant surprise and gets it an easy season two.

Worst Case:
The SVU lead-in isn't worth much anymore, and there's just not enough of a base audience left at NBC to get people to show up for this kind of thing. Another member of the Mercy/Trauma/LOLA/Prime Suspect fraternity. Ties Prime Suspect at 1.19 and done by early 2013.

This feels like yet another of those "conventional wisdom" dramas that I listed above. NBC seems to bomb out with one every year. It seems like a pretty competent procedural production, and that seems like something NBC should be doing, but then it can't get out of the gate at all. If it can start off decently, maybe, but the only one of the above that did had the Law & Order name attached. Something has to break the rule eventually, but consider me highly skeptical until NBC proves otherwise. 1.40.
Law and Order: SVU
1.91 2.02


ShowNetworkPremieres Avg y2y
American Horror StoryFX10/171.60
South ParkComedy9/261.53-9%
Psych (projected)USATBD1.03-1%
Key & PeeleComedy9/260.91
Hot in ClevelandTV Land11/280.34-32%

Network to Watch: I'm taking ABC here just because I have more hope in their new show than I do in NBC's.

My Picks: Will try both newbies, though (again) Nashville looks right now like the better of the two. I'm also in for another season of Psych (assuming it's scheduled here, which seems likely but is not official).


Spot said...

The people at Nashville must have done a happy dance when they heard their lead-in was going to be Suburgatory instead of The Neighbors.

Spot said...

I don't like country music, and even less I like soaps ... but I can't wait for Nashville to start. One person is kinda too small sample, but I see this show having potential to attract both intended and periphery demographic. Who knows, maybe ABC even struck DesperateHousewivesLike gold mine here.
Let's go for six seasons and a movie !

Spot said...

I've spent all summer trying not to be excited for yet another ABC primetime soap, but I've failed miserably. Now I'm trying to get caught up on Once and Revenge on Netflix.

Spot said...

All of you guys, salivating over those flash in the pan rookies. I'm taking the proven quantity, just because it's still the best show in the slot.
(seriously, cable, get on that. Give me a reason not to watch season 13 of CSI)

Spot said...

The more I think about it, I think moving Revenge to Sundays and putting Nashville here is the best move ABC could have done. With Once Upon a Time & 666 Park Avenue, that night is themed to go dark and broody; Nashville would have stuck out as going against the flow while Revenge fits right in. And I don't see ABC having a 9:30 weakness with Subguratory given its performance at 8:30 last year.

Spot said...

Dunno about others, but I'm not salivating over other broadcast rookies.
I circled only Nashville and Vegas as must-see ... then un-circled Vegas after seeing (cheesy) promo. Still I'll probably check it.
Sure, I'll sample some comedies, but for reason of star power (like Reba or Matthew Perry), no must-sees for me there.
And I'll watch all genre shows (Arrow, Cult, Revolution ...) - I can't help myself, that's my kind of stuff, I watch literally all such shows despite waste majority of those being pure trash, guilty pleasure at best.

Spot said...

I'm with you on dramas: Nashville and Vegas my most anticipated. May be because I haven't seen them. :-P

Favorite two new shows I have seen are the two Fox comedies.

Spot said...

I'm only really even paying attention to stuff in "open" timeslots, i.e. Vegas (although that slot's technically "closed" since I also watch SOA in fall and Justified and Southland @ midseason), Last Resort, Elementary, maybe Arrow. I'm REALLY not feeling any of the new comedies (although I might give Ben & Kate another look if it weren't for the fact that myself and my roommates all watch NCIS anyway).

Spot said...

totally looks like a show that should be on GAC channel. I love to watch country
music videos in my spare time; when my wife told me that ABC was coming out
with a TV show about a country superstar teaming up with an upcoming teen
sensation in order to keep her record deal, it caught my attention. This show
sounds like it’s going to be a cooler version of “Glee”, except with country
music skits. Since this show is not going to be on the days that I’m home, I
called my DISH coworker to get the Hopper. He told me it would automatically
record this show for me, and the Hopper’s Primetime Anytime feature automatically
records all of my prime time shows that come on CBS, NBC, FOX and ABC everyday
in HD.

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