|ABC Wednesday Comedies (P/Avg/F)||The X Factor This Season|
|3.1/2.60/2.0 (The Middle) (+6% yr-to-yr) |
6.1/5.05/4.1 (Modern Family) (+14%)
3.1/2.71/1.7 (Happy Endings) (+56%)
|3.4 (Wednesday 9/12/12) |
3.6 (Wednesday 9/19/12)
|Criminal Minds (Premiere/Avg/Finale)||Survivor This Season|
|4.1/3.39/3.6 (-2%)||3.2 (Wednesday 9/19/12, -6% year-to-year) |
-6% (Fall 2011 week two drop)
This time, I'm setting an over/under and if you take the "over" you need only one network to get above that mark to win. Three networks have a shot; I think they'll all fall short, but I only have to be wrong once! Fox is a longshot; they would need The X Factor to hold up completely against the arrival of full-fledged competition, but maybe not facing a repeat of The Voice is just that big a deal. If Survivor holds up week-to-week and Criminal Minds is about even year-to-year, CBS could sneak in there with a 3.6... but that too seems unlikely. I think ABC has a shot, but how much of one given the sitcom results on the first couple days? They blew away this number last year with a one-hour The Middle (3.1) and a one-hour Modern Family (6.1) averaging a 4.6. They've got the one-hour The Middle again, but 9:30 should take a huge hit even with an optimistic prediction for The Neighbors. Plus, it's hard not to think Middle and Modern are gonna be down.
Over/Under: 3.5 for the #1 network from 8:00 to 10:00. (If "over," feel free to let me know which one(s) is over, but that's not required.)
No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline.