Thursday, September 27, 2012

The Question, Wednesday 9/26/12: Who Ya Got in Sitcoms vs. Singing Round 2?


The second of the big showdowns between a primary night of a singing competition and a potent two-hour sitcom block goes down tonight, as week three of The X Factor duels with the return of ABC's Wednesday comedy block. This could end up a pretty tight three-way race for #1 from 8:00 to 10:00, with ABC and Fox probably somewhere in the low-to-mid-3's and CBS lurking in the shadows with Survivor and a premiere of Criminal Minds that's coming off a strong finale for that show. It's round two of Sitcoms vs. Singing. Who ya got? That's The Question for Wednesday 9/26/12.

ABC Wednesday Comedies (P/Avg/F) The X Factor This Season
3.1/2.60/2.0 (The Middle) (+6% yr-to-yr)
3.3/2.60/1.8 (Suburgatory)
6.1/5.05/4.1 (Modern Family) (+14%)
3.1/2.71/1.7 (Happy Endings) (+56%)
3.4 (Wednesday 9/12/12)
3.6 (Wednesday 9/19/12)
Criminal Minds (Premiere/Avg/Finale) Survivor This Season
4.1/3.39/3.6 (-2%) 3.2 (Wednesday 9/19/12, -6% year-to-year)
-6% (Fall 2011 week two drop)

This time, I'm setting an over/under and if you take the "over" you need only one network to get above that mark to win. Three networks have a shot; I think they'll all fall short, but I only have to be wrong once! Fox is a longshot; they would need The X Factor to hold up completely against the arrival of full-fledged competition, but maybe not facing a repeat of The Voice is just that big a deal. If Survivor holds up week-to-week and Criminal Minds is about even year-to-year, CBS could sneak in there with a 3.6... but that too seems unlikely. I think ABC has a shot, but how much of one given the sitcom results on the first couple days? They blew away this number last year with a one-hour The Middle (3.1) and a one-hour Modern Family (6.1) averaging a 4.6. They've got the one-hour The Middle again, but 9:30 should take a huge hit even with an optimistic prediction for The Neighbors. Plus, it's hard not to think Middle and Modern are gonna be down.

Over/Under: 3.5 for the #1 network from 8:00 to 10:00. (If "over," feel free to let me know which one(s) is over, but that's not required.)
 
No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline.

14 comments:

Spot said...

For me it all comes down to just how strong Modern Family will be and whether it can prop up the night with what I see as an awful lead-out. It won't be nearly as big as last year and with the hits the CBS comedies took, I say UNDER.

Spot said...

Survivor some 3.0 and CM approaching 4.0 but just missing it = CBS 3.4.
With all Emmy hype Modern Family over 5.0, lifting ABC over 3.0 but bellow 3.5. Let's say 3.3.
X-Factor, tough question. Its stronger 9PM hour goes against 3 premieres, while in 1st hour competition is weaker, but more overlapping . I say 3.2, as last week TXF was 3.6 against mostly repeats, I doubt it can bounce vs originals.
NBC, 2.0 would be above expectations.

Under it is.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Over, with ABC. I think Modern Family will get around a 5.0, and I underestimated The Middle last year. The Neighbors does make it the biggest question mark, but it may retain enough of MF to help. Meanwhile, Survivor's audience will hang mostly steady (probably down a tenth or two against more programming) while Criminal Minds will womp SVU in the battle of the crime dramas with around a 3.5. The X-Factor's week 2 growth could be arrested now with MF and CM back in the mix.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

I'll go with over, then.

Middle: 2.9Modern: 5.5Neighbors: 2.6


That would be 3.7.

Spot said...

Actually it would be 3.475, 3.5 rounded. Cause Middle is 2 episodes

Spot said...

Over for ABC - but I've been overly optimistic all week.

Spot said...

Under-
CBS: Survivor- 3.1, CM- 3.5 (Avg. 3.3)
FOX: X Factor- 3.2 (Avg. 3.2)
ABC: Middle 2.5, MF 5.0, Neighbors 2.5 (Avg. 3.125)

Spot said...

Under but I think ABC will almost get there

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

OK. I'll still say over. I don't see Middle getting a 3.0, so I'll boost Neighbors up to 2.9. That would be a 3.55.

Spot said...

over, because the entire country is hotly anticipating the return of Law and Order SVU on NBC!!! just kidding, (although I am looking forward to SVU) but if NBC continues to grow, which it has a slim slim chance of, we really can't discount it for too much longer, but under, fairly competitive night, and premieres aren't drawing as amazing ratings as they have before, although CBS will probably get a 3.3-3.4 and ABC will hit the low 3's

Spot said...

Good one. I almost made the joke about how Oh Sit! is going to get a 10x post-renewal bounce.

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