Monday, September 17, 2012

The Question, Monday 9/17/12: World Without Power or Woman Without Power?


The Fox/NBC pre-season wars are getting a little more dramatic starting in week two, as each network debuts its first new drama of the season tonight. NBC dips back into the always unpredictable genre pool with Revolution, while Fox has a show about a doctor who works for the mob called The Mob Doctor. Who comes out on top? That's The Question for Monday, September 17, 2012.

Last Season's NBC Drama Premieres Last Season's Fox Drama Premieres
1.6 (The Playboy Club, 9/19/11, out of 1.9 The Sing-Off)
1.8 (Prime Suspect, 9/22/11, 3.3 Whitney)
2.1 (Grimm, 10/28/11, 1.1 Chuck)
1.4 (The Firm, 1/8/12, 1.7 Dateline)
3.8 (Smash, 2/6/12, 7.7 The Voice)
2.0 (Awake, 3/1/12, 1.7 Up All Night)
3.1 (Terra Nova, 9/26/11)
1.7 (The Finder, 1/12/12, 2.5 Bones)
3.3 (Alcatraz, 1/16/12)
3.9 (Touch, 1/25/12, 7.1 American Idol)
The Voice Lead-In Bones Lead-In
4.2 (Monday 9/10/12, two hours)
4.0 (9/11/12, one hour)
3.4 (9/12/12, one hour)
2.39 (Bones 2011-12 average)
2.5 (Bones Monday premiere, 4/2/12)
2.13 (Bones Monday average)

Revolution seemingly has all the advantages in this comparison. It should have a 4.0+ lead-in in the 9:30 half-hour of The Voice, whereas The Mob Doctor's lead-in (Bones) seems unlikely to get much beyond a 2.5 or so. I'm skeptical about the compatibility of the Voice/Revolution pairing, but that size demo audience can't hurt on premiere night. And the last post-Bones premiere, spin-off The Finder, managed just a 1.7, though it had a ton of scripted competition on that night. Revolution is the kind of show that tends to build pre-season buzz and premiere pretty well. And (this was a shock to me), the reviews are wayyy in Revolution's favor; it beats out TMD 69 to 36 on Metacritic as of this writing. (I thought Revolution was all right, but a 69?!)

I'd be pretty stunned if Revolution doesn't have a bigger premiere; the question for me is by how much. My instinct says a good over/under for Revolution is a 3.0 to low-3's, while I have serious doubts The Mob Doctor can even get to a 2.0.

I keep wavering between 1.2 and 1.3, so I'm setting this spread at Revolution beats The Mob Doctor by 1.25 A18-49 points. (Revolution -1.25)

(Reply with "Revolution" if you think Revolution beats The Mob Doctor by more than 1.25 points.
Reply with "The Mob Doctor" if you think Revolution beats The Mob Doctor by less than 1.25 points OR if you think The Mob Doctor ties/beats Revolution.)

11 comments:

Spot said...

Revolution- 3.5 to 2.1

Spot said...

The Mob Doctor (as in less than 1.25, not as in it ties/beats Revolution) - 1.7 to 2.5.

Spot said...

"The Mob Doctor"

Spot said...

Revolution (though I think Mob Doctor will do a little bit better than what you are saying for its premiere, but only for its premiere)

Spot said...

Mob Doc

Spot said...

The Mob Doctor. The ten pm effect takes Revolution down a few notches while Mob Doctor somehow finds premiere night life (support), maybe because of negative hype.

Spot said...

Revolution. I can't see The Mob Doctor cracking above a 2.0.

Spot said...

CarShark guessed The Mob Doctor over on the Best Case/Worst Case Monday 10/9c thread: http://www.spottedratings.com/2012/09/fall-2012-best-caseworst-case-monday.html#comment-654518757

I'll accept both the MScholar and CarShark guesses, but starting with today's post, I'm cutting off entries at 6am ET.

Spot said...

Rats, I was thinking low 3s for Revolution, and about 2.4 for Mob Doc.

Spot said...

the mob doctor- with 10pm depression revolution is going to beat the mob doctor, but not by 1.25

Spot said...

the mob doctor- with 10pm depression revolution is going to beat the mob doctor, but not by 1.25

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