Like with the other Monday hours, this is the second-most viewed 10:00 hour of the week. Mainstays Castle and Hawaii Five-0 were down by relatively modest amounts last year, but NBC actually made some big gains late in the season with Smash (which really only illustrates how weak they were in 2010-11).
|Premieres September 24||2.11|
|Best Case: Castle continues to improve as a retainer of the Dancing with the Stars audience, and DWTS has a solid couple of seasons. Down just 3% to a 2.24.|
Worst Case: Panic time sets in for DWTS, and a now past-its-prime Castle isn't really able to resist that. The Moonlighting curse sets in!!! Drops 20% to 1.85.
Likeliest: I think DWTS continues its declines, though my guess is it won't be as rapid as in its 2011-12 seasons. So I think Castle's bleeding slows a bit and it drops 10% to a 2.08.
|Slot Orig Avg|
|Hawaii Five-0||Slot Average|
|Premieres September 24||2.60|
|Best Case: The rise of the sitcom continues, and Five-0 remains a rock solid option leading out of the still stout Monday CBS block at 10/9c. Drops just 1% to a 2.83 and is again among TV's very biggest 10/9c shows.|
Worst Case: The Monday sitcom block crashes back to earth, so Five-0 has a much smaller 9:30 audience to work with. Down 15% to a 2.43.
Likeliest: Like with Castle, I don't really have any compelling reason to go in either direction except for what its lead-in might do. I personally think the Monday sitcoms are coming back to earth a bit, so I'll say this declines a bit faster than last year. -8% to a 2.63.
|Slot Orig Avg|
|Revolution (NEW!)||Slot Average|
|Slot Orig Avg|
|Premieres September 17||1.68|
|Best Case: There's about as much initial interest here as in The Event a couple autumns ago, having The Voice as a lead-in can only help, and this one actually has the goods creatively. Top 10:00 entertainment show on TV. A ratings revolution is begun. 3.30.|
Worst Case: While The Voice is a big lead-in, it's not a compatible one. Premieres below Smash levels, settles below Smash levels, but (since this is NBC) still gets a back nine and a new timeslot at midseason, where it falls apart Event-style. 1.60.
Likeliest: It's really hard nowadays not to be incredibly cynical about yet another "the next Lost" type of show. I think the premise is interesting, but then I've thought that about plenty of other recent broadcast genre shows that flamed out. Picking these is an absolute crapshoot, but I'm gonna go slightly worse than middle-of-the-road and say it averages a Smash-esque 2.27. Considering I think its The Voice lead-in will be diminished, that would likely give it a good shot at a season two. Good luck!
|The Playboy Club|
|Monday Night Football||ESPN||9/10||5.38||-8%|
|WWE Raw (11-12 avg)||USA||ongoing||1.70|
Network to Watch: Definitely NBC, as they're the only network without a show that's settled into a relatively predictable pattern. The Voice and Revolution don't necessarily seem like a natural pairing, but NBC's thinking more about the upside than the downside.
My Picks: Another new-show-or-Monday Night Football hour on Monday. I'm definitely giving Revolution a shot at least at the start. Castle and Five-0 are a couple shows I've always found somewhat likable but have never really had the time to make appointment viewing.