Monday, September 10, 2012

Fall 2012 Best Case/Worst Case, Monday 10/9c

The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Monday 10:00 10.2 12 -3% 9 35.5 8 29% 13

Like with the other Monday hours, this is the second-most viewed 10:00 hour of the week. Mainstays Castle and Hawaii Five-0 were down by relatively modest amounts last year, but NBC actually made some big gains late in the season with Smash (which really only illustrates how weak they were in 2010-11).

Image Castle Slot Average
Premieres September 24 2.11
Best Case: Castle continues to improve as a retainer of the Dancing with the Stars audience, and DWTS has a solid couple of seasons. Down just 3% to a 2.24.

Worst Case:
Panic time sets in for DWTS, and a now past-its-prime Castle isn't really able to resist that. The Moonlighting curse sets in!!! Drops 20% to 1.85.

I think DWTS continues its declines, though my guess is it won't be as rapid as in its 2011-12 seasons. So I think Castle's bleeding slows a bit and it drops 10% to a 2.08.
Slot Orig Avg
y2y Label
-14% marginal2.31 2.10
True2 Sitch
2.10 +10%
2011-12 Slot
Monday 10:00

Image Hawaii Five-0 Slot Average
Premieres September 24 2.60
Best Case: The rise of the sitcom continues, and Five-0 remains a rock solid option leading out of the still stout Monday CBS block at 10/9c. Drops just 1% to a 2.83 and is again among TV's very biggest 10/9c shows.

Worst Case:
The Monday sitcom block crashes back to earth, so Five-0 has a much smaller 9:30 audience to work with. Down 15% to a 2.43.

Like with Castle, I don't really have any compelling reason to go in either direction except for what its lead-in might do. I personally think the Monday sitcoms are coming back to earth a bit, so I'll say this declines a bit faster than last year. -8% to a 2.63.
Slot Orig Avg
Hawaii Five-0
y2y Label
-6% solid2.86 2.37
True2 Sitch
2.37 +21%
2011-12 Slot
Monday 10:00

Image Revolution (NEW!) Slot Average
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres September 17 1.68
Best Case: There's about as much initial interest here as in The Event a couple autumns ago, having The Voice as a lead-in can only help, and this one actually has the goods creatively. Top 10:00 entertainment show on TV. A ratings revolution is begun. 3.30.

Worst Case:
While The Voice is a big lead-in, it's not a compatible one. Premieres below Smash levels, settles below Smash levels, but (since this is NBC) still gets a back nine and a new timeslot at midseason, where it falls apart Event-style. 1.60.

It's really hard nowadays not to be incredibly cynical about yet another "the next Lost" type of show. I think the premise is interesting, but then I've thought that about plenty of other recent broadcast genre shows that flamed out. Picking these is an absolute crapshoot, but I'm gonna go slightly worse than middle-of-the-road and say it averages a Smash-esque 2.27. Considering I think its The Voice lead-in will be diminished, that would likely give it a good shot at a season two. Good luck!
The Playboy Club
1.37 1.25
Rock Center
1.00 0.97
2.27 1.72


ShowNetworkPremieres Avg y2y
Monday Night FootballESPN9/105.38-8%
WWE Raw (11-12 avg)USAongoing1.70

Network to Watch: Definitely NBC, as they're the only network without a show that's settled into a relatively predictable pattern. The Voice and Revolution don't necessarily seem like a natural pairing, but NBC's thinking more about the upside than the downside.

My Picks: Another new-show-or-Monday Night Football hour on Monday. I'm definitely giving Revolution a shot at least at the start. Castle and Five-0 are a couple shows I've always found somewhat likable but have never really had the time to make appointment viewing.


Spot said...

Even The Event got a full season. But since NBC has a lot of midseason shows to fill the gaps between Voice seasons as well as Sunday Night Football's vacancy come January, will NBC give Revolution a chance to grow or quickly give it the hook if it can't retain enough of The Voice's audience?

Spot said...

but NBC also usually has a lot of shows that tank very quickly as well, and there is a fair, if not huge amount of hype for it, so maybe a big for NBC original rating will be enough to put it above the rest of the field, and not be yanked so quickly

Spot said...

Revolution doesn't have the goods creatively. It will quickly fall behind both Castle and Hawaii 5-0.

Spot said...

Revolution will premiere high, and will either become a big hit or flame out within a season. I don't see much in-between.
I lean towards the show becoming a hit and improving after its pilot. I think the premise is sustainable and can imagine the show becoming more action-adventure oriented going forward. It seems to avoid the problems of other "genre" shows: its promises are deliverable on a network budget, it's not over-reliant on tedious mythology, and the premise isn't front-loaded.
I just hope it can deliver.

Spot said...

I think The Voice will stay pretty strong, so I'm thinking Revolution will debut in the high 3s and finish in the mid 2s. So a little better than Smash.

Spot said...

I find Revolution concept completely unsustainable. I see it going FlashForward / The Event route - after a good start, ratings to enter free falling mode. I'm still giving it a benefit of doubt, but solely because of Kripke.

There is one other scenario: after 13 or 22 episodes Revolution moving to Friday to be paired with compatible Grimm. For that to happen, 3 things should align:
A) Revolution not to be hit.
No doubts in my mind about it.
B) But still to gather rabid fan base.
Quite possible for genre show.
C) Friday comedies to underperform. Or some weekday comedies to underperform causing Friday ones to be moved there as replacements.
I see NBC contracting comedies anyway. It's not that NBC have too much of it (though they certainly have a lot), but that quality of their pilot pickups is ... underwhelming at least, again.

Spot said...

Well, I made my guess with the thought that The Voice would pull mid-to-high 4s. We're two episodes in, and it's at 4.0. Hmmm...I think I'll have to adjust it down to low 3s for the debut.

Spot said...

- I agree that Castle will likely decrease slower this year. I would say around -7%, so not as pesimistic as your -10% prediction, but around it. It has a lot of momentum going into this season, which it didn't have last year, so I think at least in the fall it will hold on fine. And it is actually one of those rare shows that don't do much worse in spring so that, together with the DWTS All Stars, I am predicting a nice year for it.
- On the contrary, I think Five-0 might loose a bit faster due to the weaker 9pm hour, so I agree with you.
- Revolution is a very hard one to predict, but I will also agree with you. I say it premieres quite high but doesn't free fall a la Event or Flash Forward, though obviously goes way loer. See it hitting 2.0s by spring, but ending its run with a 2.2/2.3 average that guarantee its renewal.

Spot said...

Kinda late, but Revolution 3.2 to Mob Doctor 2.0, so barely MD.

Post a Comment

© 2009-2022. All Rights Reserved.