Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Question Two, Tuesday 9/25/12: Viva Las Vegas?


I really wanted to hold myself to one The Question per day, but there are a few select dates when I find it impossible. I think Fox's sitcom lineup and CBS' Vegas are each big enough deals to warrant their own post. So here we go; CBS will launch its third new series in four years in the Tuesday 10/9c slot after NCIS: Los Angeles. Dennis Quaid's Vegas probably has the most hype of any of those shows at least at the beginning. Is this show destined to be a little too different for the CBS audience, or will it be Viva Las Vegas for CBS? That's Question Two for Tuesday, September 25, 2012.

NCIS: Los Angeles lead-in post-NCIS: LA premieres
3.6 (premiere, 9/20/11, +6% year-to-year)
3.18 (2011-12 average)
3.0 (finale, 5/15/12, -9%)
3.1 (The Good Wife, 9/22/09, 4.4 lead-in)
2.5 (The Good Wife season 2, 9/28/10, 3.7)
2.9 (Unforgettable, 9/20/11, 3.6)

Who knows where the show ends up, but I have a feeling that Vegas will at least begin in the same range as previous lower-profile efforts like The Good Wife and Unforgettable. Unforgettable in particular was a show that wasn't making magazine covers and the like. So I see the NCIS pair's audience hanging in there about as well as they did with Unforgettable, but then I think there might be some extra samplers from outside the typical CBS realm.

Over/Under: 3.0.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline.

12 comments:

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Yesterday, I would have been an unequivocal "over," but last night's ugly 10pm ratings give me pause. But I'll stick with my initial bet of over.

Spot said...

Under- 2.9

Spot said...

Under. I'd have been leaning that way already but after seeing how Five-0 did last night.

Spot said...

Over but only because it's apparently good

Spot said...

Under, but just barely. Especially after last night's Five-0 number, it looks like the luster may finally be off the CBS brand, and therefore the NCIS:LA lead-in won't be strong enough to life support the Vegas premiere the way it did the Unforgettable premiere. That said, hype boosts it enough to get it about even, so a 2.9.

Spot said...

Over.
Show is supposed to attract multiple audiences, and (at least for premiere) it should:
- Quaid is quite a draw
- The Shield fans
- wise guys stories fans
- last and most numerous - usual suspects, CBS-procedurals faithful viewers

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

I'll go under at 2.7, because although I expect LA to beat its 3.6 from last year, coutesy of a big NCIS bump, I just don't think Vegas will draw that well.

Spot said...

Under, 2.7

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

tough one only because its so hard to guess what NCIS LA is going to get, especially after a disappointing monday for cbs, that said NCIS is still a machine, and I reckon it draws a big enough number to anchor the entire night, so I'd go over (but just)

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