Friday, September 7, 2012

Fall 2012 Best Case/Worst Case, Friday 9/8c


The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Friday 9:00 6.1 18 -2% 8 30.4 16 20% 18

As with the rest of Friday, it's by far the lowest-viewed day on which the broadcasters actually "try" with entertainment shows. An influx of scripted stuff and relatively strong reality programs helped the night as a whole look relatively healthy last season. NBC had a surprise success with Grimm in this hour, while ABC got good numbers out of Primetime: What Would You Do? Those mostly offset drops from Fringe and Supernatural.



Image Shark Tank Slot Average
Premieres September 14 1.37
Best Case: There were not that many truly hot shows at the end of last season, but Shark Tank was one of them. Airing in the fall, later in the night, and with a lot less unscripted competition can only help. Up another 15% to a 1.85 and the new king of Friday night.

Worst Case:
Airing for a full season isn't always a great thing, as other relatively repetitive shows like Undercover Boss and Primetime: WWYD? can attest. Flames out in the spring and ends up down a bit to a 1.50.

Likeliest:
Well, I consider this a legit top ten show on TV, so I have a tough time saying that I think people are gonna burn out on it. I think there are too many things in its favor in the 9:00 slot not to be a benefit, but I doubt it stays way up all year. I'm saying it gains 7% to a 1.72.
Slot Orig Avg
1.45
1.61Occupants
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition
y2y Label
+19% flop1.44 1.67
Primetime: What Would You Do?
True2 Sitch
1.99 -19%1.43 1.76
2011-12 Slot
Friday 8:00



Image Made in Jersey (NEW!) Slot Average
1.46
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres September 28 1.60
Best Case: Janet Montgomery is a star! And she's far from the first young female lead to exceed expectations on a CBS Friday. Basically equals CSI:NY's 1.62 average and scrapes out a season two.

Worst Case:
This show just isn't a fit with the grim cop shows. Undercover Boss and Golden Boy are waiting in the wings, so there's not a whole lot of patience. A 1.30 and gone at midseason.

Likeliest:
It's not like CBS has that many midseason options, but it's hard to pick out enough slots even for those few. This is one of the few that even feels like a possibility, so I have to say it's gone for Undercover Boss or Golden Boy at midseason. I don't rule out it working, I just think it's less likely than the other two new dramas on CBS. 1.39.
Occupants
CSI: NY
1.62 1.87
A Gifted Man
1.43 1.53



Image Grimm Slot Average
Premiered August 13 1.32
Best Case: The Monday night sampling and a stronger creative direction contribute to a nice sophomore season. Up 5% to a 1.61.

Worst Case:
It's not really getting that much Monday night sampling, and its Friday lead-ins will be just as weak as and less compatible than last season's. Runs out of steam creatively. Down 15% to a 1.30.

Likeliest:
I think Grimm's going to be OK. I don't think the summer Monday slot was all that much easier than fall Fridays, so most of this audience should transfer over. And it's not like Stars Earn Stripes has been funneling in some huge artificial audience. I say it ends up down 5% to a 1.45.
Slot Orig Avg
1.50
1.53Occupants
Grimm
y2y Label
flop1.53 1.90
True2 Sitch
1.89 -19%
2011-12 Slot
Friday 9:00



Image Fringe Slot Average
Premieres September 28 1.27
Best Case: It's only airing in the fall, and a lot of people want to know how it ends! Up 12% to a 1.25.

Worst Case: Last season was kind of a mess, and it's a little less clearer what exactly people are coming back for here than with something like Lost. Down another 11% to an even 1.00.

Likeliest:
I did think last season was kind of a mess, but I also think the people who are still with this show are pretty locked in at this point. I say the short season keeps things focused, and then there's a nice little bounce on finale night. Up by 3% to 1.15.
Slot Orig Avg
1.11
1.12Occupants
Fringe
y2y Label
-32% flop1.12 1.34
True2 Sitch
1.34 -16%
2011-12 Slot
Friday 9:00



Image Nikita Slot Average
Premieres October 19 0.60
Best Case: Airing at 9:00 is beneficial, and building on Top Model is impressive enough to get the show another season for syndication. Down just 4% to a 0.48.

Worst Case:
Welcome to the genre jungle, Nikita. Tougher competition and basically no lead-in flow with Top Model make for a shocking 24% drop to 0.38 and a cancellation.

Likeliest:
I can't say facing Grimm and Fringe is all that promising. Supernatural took a big hit against those shows last year and I feel like it probably had a much more loyal audience. I say Nikita loses 16% and manages an ugly 0.42. It's back on the bubble, but I can't rule out a season four for syndication/international/online reasons.
Slot Orig Avg
0.73
0.50Occupants
Supernatural
y2y Label
-44% 0.73 0.78
True2 Sitch
0.57 -11%
2011-12 Slot
Friday 8:00



Cable:

ShowNetworkPremieres Avg y2y
Friday Night Smackdown! (2011-12 avg to date)Syfyongoing0.86



Network to Watch: I guess I'm going with NBC, just because it feels like they're more invested in Grimm than any of the other networks are in any Friday show. It will hurt NBC more if it runs out of steam.

My Picks: It's a Friday, yet once Shark Tank moves up it might be my only hour with a major DVR jam. I like Grimm, I'm definitely in for the end of Fringe, and I looove Shark Tank. I'll try out Made in Jersey, but it's gonna really have to knock it out of the park to stick around.

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