Saturday, September 8, 2012

Fall 2012 Best Case/Worst Case, Saturday 9/8c

The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Saturday 9:00 5.2 20 -8% 15 29.6 19 18% 20

8:00 on Saturday is the ultimate TV graveyard, but 9:00 is pretty close. Third-least viewed, second-least competition.

Image Saturday Night Football Slot Average
Premieres September 1 1.68
Best Case: ABC lands another thrilling slate of games and handily beats down the competing offerings on Fox (and the ESPN's). Up another percent to 2.25.

Worst Case:
The games just aren't quite as incredible as last year's, plus Fox's games take out a legit chunk. Down 15% to 1.90.

I do think ABC was somewhat lucky with last year's games, including the epic Stanford/USC and USC/Oregon games as well as other intriguing matchups like Oklahoma/FSU. It probably comes back down a bit to a 2.05.
Slot Orig Avg

Saturday Night Football
y2y Label
+11% marginal2.23 2.23

True2 Sitch
2.23 +0%

2011-12 Slot
Saturday 8:00

Image CFB on Fox (NEW!) Slot Average
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres September 1 0.84
Best Case: Many of the biggest games on ABC last season were Pac-12 matchups, and if ever there were a year to pick up the Pac-12, it's this one, with USC back atop the rankings. Very competitive with ABC at a 1.70 average.

Worst Case:
The Fox slate of possibilities is simply not as diverse as ABC/ESPN's, and they end up getting stuck with a bunch of blowouts and unimpressive matchups. 1.00.

I'm not 100% sure on what each network has the rights to, but the sense I get is that the incumbent ABC will ultimately have the much better choices. So I'm giving Fox a 1.20.
America's Most Wanted
1.10 1.22

Network to Watch: I guess I'll go with Fox since they're the relative newbie in the sports realm. How close will they be with a likely stronger slate of ABC offerings? Can they stay squarely ahead of the year-ago Cops average?

My Picks: College football!

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