Fall 2012 Best Case/Worst Case, Saturday 9/8c

The Basics:

	bc	Rank	y2y	Rank	TPUT	Rank	bc/TPUT	Rank
Saturday 9:00	5.2	20	-8%	15	29.6	19	18%	20

8:00 on Saturday is the ultimate TV graveyard, but 9:00 is pretty close. Third-least viewed, second-least competition.

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		Saturday Night Football	Slot Average
		Premieres September 1	1.68
		Best Case: ABC lands another thrilling slate of games and handily beats down the competing offerings on Fox (and the ESPN's). Up another percent to 2.25. Worst Case: The games just aren't quite as incredible as last year's, plus Fox's games take out a legit chunk. Down 15% to 1.90. Likeliest: I do think ABC was somewhat lucky with last year's games, including the epic Stanford/USC and USC/Oregon games as well as other intriguing matchups like Oklahoma/FSU. It probably comes back down a bit to a 2.05.	Slot Orig Avg
			n/a
2.23			Occupants
			Saturday Night Football
y2y	Label
+11%	marginal		2.23	2.23
True2	Sitch
2.23	+0%
2011-12 Slot
Saturday 8:00

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		CFB on Fox (NEW!)	Slot Average
			1.19
			Slot Orig Avg
		Premieres September 1	0.84
Best Case: Many of the biggest games on ABC last season were Pac-12 matchups, and if ever there were a year to pick up the Pac-12, it's this one, with USC back atop the rankings. Very competitive with ABC at a 1.70 average. Worst Case: The Fox slate of possibilities is simply not as diverse as ABC/ESPN's, and they end up getting stuck with a bunch of blowouts and unimpressive matchups. 1.00. Likeliest: I'm not 100% sure on what each network has the rights to, but the sense I get is that the incumbent ABC will ultimately have the much better choices. So I'm giving Fox a 1.20.			Occupants
			America's Most Wanted
			1.10	1.22

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Network to Watch: I guess I'll go with Fox since they're the relative newbie in the sports realm. How close will they be with a likely stronger slate of ABC offerings? Can they stay squarely ahead of the year-ago Cops average?

My Picks: College football!