Saturday, September 15, 2012

Fall 2012 Best Case/Worst Case, Saturday 10/9c

The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Saturday 10:00 7.7 16 +2% 4 29.9 18 26% 16

This is actually the only 10:00 hour of the entire week in which the TPUT goes up from what it is at 9:00, though it's a very slight difference (29.6 -> 29.9). I guess that says more about how much worse the broadcast options are at 9:00 than anything else.

Image Saturday Night Football Slot Average
Premieres September 1 1.49
Best Case: ABC lands another thrilling slate of games and handily beats down the competing offerings on Fox (and the ESPN's). Up another percent to 2.25.

Worst Case:
The games just aren't quite as incredible as last year's, plus Fox's games take out a legit chunk. Down 15% to 1.90.

I do think ABC was somewhat lucky with last year's games, including the epic Stanford/USC and USC/Oregon games as well as other intriguing matchups like Oklahoma/FSU. It probably comes back down a bit to a 2.05.
Slot Orig Avg
Saturday Night Football
y2y Label
+11% marginal2.23 2.23
True2 Sitch
2.23 +0%
2011-12 Slot
Saturday 8:00

Image 48 Hours Mystery Slot Average
Premieres September 29 1.80
Best Case: CBS primetime gets really good lead-ins from afternoon sports events, and that is just barely felt by 48 Hours Mystery time, causing a break-even 1.15.

Worst Case:
Takes about a league-average drop to a 1.04.

Clearly I don't have a lot to say here. I'm guessing it just keeps chugging along. Loses 4% for a second straight year to average a 1.10.
Slot Orig Avg
48 Hours Mystery
y2y Label
-4% flop1.14 1.46
True2 Sitch
1.46 -21%
2011-12 Slot
Saturday 10:00

Image CFB on Fox (NEW!) Slot Average
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres September 1 n/a
Best Case: Many of the biggest games on ABC last season were Pac-12 matchups, and if ever there were a year to pick up the Pac-12, it's this one, with USC back atop the rankings. Very competitive with ABC at a 1.70 average.

Worst Case:
The Fox slate of possibilities is simply not as diverse as ABC/ESPN's, and they end up getting stuck with a bunch of blowouts and unimpressive matchups. 1.00.

I'm not 100% sure on what each network has the rights to, but the sense I get is that the incumbent ABC will ultimately have the much better choices. So I'm giving Fox a 1.20.

Network to Watch: I guess I'll go with Fox since they're the relative newbie in the sports realm. How close will they be with a likely stronger slate of ABC offerings? Can they stay squarely ahead of the year-ago Cops average?

My Picks: College football!

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