Friday, September 14, 2012

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 9/13/12


No formal "The Question" post today, but I think the over/under for tonight's Shark Tank premiere should be about a 1.75, so you can play along if you want!

WHAT MATTERS:
  • For Fox, like for NBC, day two of their 2012-13 season went better than day one. The X Factor remains a borderline disaster and finished a bit below the previous evening's premiere, but Glee had a fine start to its new life on Thursday, even if the surprising two-tick finals drop makes me less enthusiastic. That number trailed the previous season's premiere by 23% but edged pretty much the whole second half of last season and built by a couple ticks on a May finale that had a much better lead-in. As noted yesterday, other shows have rung up big numbers against pre-premiere competition and then dropped big, but this is still a reasonably positive beginning.
  • The leftover summer originals were basically crushed by a wayyy stronger Fox and a near-best-ever NFL Network rating (3.8 for Packers/Bears, trailing only Thanksgiving 2011's Ravens/49ers). Most notable among the soft ratings was the finale of America's Got Talent which (though up from last Thursday) dropped by a disheartening 33% from the year-ago number. The only consolation was that Got Talent helped out a series-high Rock Center in its second season premiere.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue2
Viewers A18-49 Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Wipeout 3.52 1.1 -21%n/a 14/15 n/a -21% -19% 1.15
Grey's Anatomy (SR) 2.61 0.7 -42% -33% 0.88
Scandal (SR) 2.49 0.6 -33% -50% 0.81
The Big Bang Theory (SR) 6.94 1.9 -5% +12% 2.13
Two and a Half Men (SR) 5.31 1.5 -17% -12% 1.64
Big Brother Thu 5.75 2.0 -13%-17% 7/10 -17% -11% -18% 2.21
Person of Interest (SR) 5.59 1.0 +25% +11% 1.04
America's Got Talent Wed 10.59 2.4 +26%n/a 7/15 -33% +39% -74% 2.71
Rock Center 6.00 1.4 n/an/a 1/1 +40% -46% -87% 1.40
The X Factor Thu 8.28 3.1 -6%n/a 1/1 -28% +343% +288% 3.37
Glee 7.41 3.1 n/an/a 1/1 -23% +464% +210% 3.08
The Vampire Diaries (SR) 0.96 0.4 +33% +33% 0.50
The Next 0.66 0.2 -33%+33% 5/5 n/a -33% -20% 0.23

EDIT: Added the Thursday Night Football game (3.8) as competition from 8:30 to 11:00 in True2 calculations.

KEY (click to expand)
Viewers - The total number of viewers (age 2+, in millions) that watched the program.
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Last - A18-49 percent difference from previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 percent difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes that have aired so far this season.
y2y - The show's A18-49 rating compared to its rating a year ago.
TLa - The show's A18-49 rating compared to the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - The show's A18-49 rating compared to the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True2 - The second edition of True Strength, a metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

9 comments:

Spot said...

The X Factor a borderline disaster or a disaster? We'll see in following weeks.
My predictions: disaster, hit 1-of-4, with all misses being by a big margin.
Shark Tank: over. 2.0 - summer repeats were around 1.0 and not much competition today.
Hint to others: then it's safe to take under here, look at my track record.

Spot said...

Careful, Silvio, trying to invoke that may spell trouble. I remember the time I sarcastically voted 5.0+ for The Voice in a TVBTN poll trying to kill it, only for my sarcastic vote to be right...

Spot said...

Aaand my streak of futility continues. Did not expect X Factor to not surge with no Voice (even with AGT's finale looming), nor did I expect Glee to GROW from it. What does that mean for Big Bang and 2 1/2 debuts? Into the 6s? Lost Resort has a chance?


X Factor has always been a big ball of disappointment and unmet expectations, but to think it's barely above 3.0 so early into its run. With Demi Lovato. And BRITNEY SPEARS! Are we below your Worst Case already, Spot?

Spot said...

X is up to 3.2 after finals: https://twitter.com/maskedscheduler/status/246645566627512320

So, for one week anyway, 3.4/3.2 is better than my Worst Case of 3.30/3.12. But holding above those numbers for the full season would obviously take a miracle. :(

Spot said...

Shark Tank- Over (2.0)

Spot said...

One more note. NFL Network has struck a deal with Cablevision recently. That's 3+ millions potential new subscribers in NY area, no? Availability increased by 5% (up to 5% actually, I suppose channel is not in basic package) = actually it would be surprise if their ratings wouldn't go up this season.

Spot said...

Under.

I suspect that X Factor will bounce back without AGT and The Voice in the way.

Spot said...

How much is Thursday Night Football going to hurt network primetime? Big Bang, 2 1/2 Men and Person of Interest will get dinged, but FOX and ABC are so female-skewing that night, and NBC is already so niche, they might be the only ones.

Spot said...

wow that glee figured suprised me, but I'd go under for shark-tank, even if it is an orignal I don't see friday numbers being anywhere near there until we're in the 'proper' tv season

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