Friday, September 28, 2012

The Question, Sunday 9/30/12: How Much Firepower in ABC's Young Guns?


In recent years, Sunday night has not been one of the more exciting evenings on broadcast TV. NBC has the predictably beastly Sunday Night Football, Fox has the predictably fine Animation Domination block, and overrun-muddled CBS seems content to phone it in with The Amazing Race and lower-tier dramas. For awhile, ABC was just as predictable; their Extreme Makeover: Home Edition/Desperate Housewives/Brothers & Sisters lineup stayed intact for five full seasons! This fall, all three of those veterans are dunzo and ABC's Sunday situation becomes a whole lot more interesting. Once Upon a Time had a pretty smashing debut season in the 8:00 slot last year, and they're hoping that will continue through to a couple more young shows: decent-rated sophomore Revenge and rookie 666 Park Ave. How much firepower will ABC's lineup of young guns have? That's The Question for Sunday, September 30, 2012.

Once Upon a Time Revenge
4.0 (premiere, 10/23/11)
3.27 (average)
3.3 (finale, 5/13/12)
3.3 (premiere, 9/21/11, 6.2 lead-in)
2.46 (average, 2.9 average lead-in)
2.4 (finale, 2.4 lead-in)
Previous Occupant (9/8c) Previous Occupants (10/9c)
Desperate Housewives
3.2 (premiere, 9/25/11)
2.74 (average)
3.2 (finale, 5/13/12)
3.1 (Pan Am premiere, 9/25/11, 3.2 lead-in)
1.69 (Pan Am average)
2.2 (GCB premiere, 3/4/12, 2.4 lead-in)
1.92 (GCB average)

Once Upon a Time finished the season well enough that I think it pretty reliably returns in the low-3's, maybe even a bit higher. I expect 666 Park to be just kind of there, dipping from Revenge but not by that much. I believe the most unpredictable part of this pick is the centerpiece, Revenge at 9/8c. I'm not seeing the show taking a huge leap to Once numbers or anything, but at least on premiere night it should have a good shot at upper 2's. But these shows are young and unpredictable, so this is a pick where I wouldn't be shocked to miss by a half point in either direction.

Over/Under for ABC from 8:00 to 11:00: 2.8.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

15 comments:

Spot said...

Call me overly optimistic, but I think 666 Park Avenue is going to open to basically the same numbers as Pan Am.
Once Upon a Time: 3.6
Revenge: 3.1
666 Park Avenue: 3.0
Over.

Spot said...

Over. ABC's put most of their ad dollars promoting their Sunday shows, and the ratings for both Once Upon a Time and Revenge popped in their finales.

Spot said...

Under, 2.7

Spot said...

Over. But really wild guessing.

On a side note, 666 has great cast and apparently good buzz. Interested measuring idea here:
http://adage.com/article/trending-topics/tvguide-watchlist-a-virtual-focus-group-tv/237184/
Self-selected sample ... but pretty large one.
Top 2 from that list did really well, and 666 is on third place. I sincerely hope No.4 is going to do well too.

Spot said...

Over-
OUAT- 3.4
Revenge- 3.1
OUAT- 3.0


Avg- 3.17

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

I've been on the high side more often than not, but this is the one where I lose my mind.

Once: 4.1
Revenge 3.5
666: 3.2

Way over. Three very female-focused shows. Not much overlap except The Good Wife, which will get shelled. I think ABC's gamble will payoff, unlike CBS's,

Spot said...

The whole night should flow really well and there seems to be some good buzz around all three shows. Over.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

I've been going over and getting it wrong a lot, but still I've got to go over, so so much advertising, and its hard to imagine there won't at least be initail turnout for 666 park avenue

Spot said...

I will go with Over. Even if I do a somehow pessimistic scenario in which I have:
Once Upon a Time: 3.5 (it s hould manage a 3.9)
Revenge: 2.8 (I agree, this is the hardest to predict, but I see it doing a 3.0)
666 Park Avenue: 2.5 (this depends on Revenge, but it could go higher if Revenge is higher)

I still get a 2.9. My Once prediction is likely too pesimistic and the other two could also go up, so I think it's an over here.

Spot said...

Over. Might be optimistic but think Revenge could do well on Sunday.

Spot said...

Over.

OUAT: 3.7

Revenge: 3.1

666 Park Avenue: 3.0


Although I wouldn't be surprised if REVENGGEEE! or 666 go below 2.8, OUAT is a very strong show and will keep the average up.

Spot said...

OUAT: 3.5, Revenge: 2.6, 666: 2.4 - Average: 2.8. Even. Is that allowed? If not, then over!

Spot said...

“Revenge” is so sweet, and that’s why I can’t get enough of
this show. She leaves no stone unturned when it comes to making people pay. I
want to see how good “Once Upon A Time” will be. Most fairy tales come from
real life events or real people, and if this show can link them all together,
and hold my interest; I'm sold. I got the Hopper to ensure that I never miss or
have to schedule my favorite prime time TV shows. My DISH coworker told me that
its PTAT feature automatically records all of my prime time shows that come on
CBS, NBC, FOX and ABC everyday in HD.

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