As with every other Thursday hour, 10:00 has the lowest viewing of any weeknight 10:00 slot. The hour was significantly down thanks mostly to NBC, where a never-ending string of drama flops came up well shy of what they did at times with a third comedy hour in 2010-11.
|Premieres September 27||2.00|
|Best Case: Airing right at the end of the season, Scandal had about the same True2 score as Private Practice and finished the season with some real momentum. Bounces up to a little better than PP's year-ago numbers at 2.48.|
Worst Case: Season one was a pretty wild ride, but "wild ride" is a lot tougher to sustain across a much larger order than it had last year. Runs out of steam pretty early on and ends up down 20% to a cancel-worthy 1.60.
Likeliest: I do have a feeling this show will almost inevitably settle into something a little duller and more procedural than what it was in season one. I'm not really sure what that show will look like, so I'm saying it breaks even with a 2.01 and hoping for better.
|Slot Orig Avg|
|Elementary (NEW!)||Slot Average|
|Slot Orig Avg|
|Premieres September 27||2.64|
|Best Case: Many of the character-based procedurals have drawn inspiration from Sherlock Holmes, so why wouldn't an actual Sherlock Holmes procedural with two likable leads work? Holds all of its Person of Interest lead-in and is the top 10/9c show on TV. 3.20.|
Worst Case: People have trouble understanding Jonny Lee Miller's British mumble. Ends up being a lot more dark and a lot less fun than it seemed like it might have been. Averages just a 2.20 and ends after one season.
Likeliest: This night should have a lot of momentum with The Big Bang Theory and Person of Interest, and putting this show on Thursday over a fourth comedy hour is a pretty big vote of confidence. Right now, I'm not seeing how this ends poorly. 2.87 (tying last year's Person of Interest average) and yet another long-running member of the CBS drama stable.
|Rock Center||Slot Average|
|Premieres September 27||1.10|
|Best Case: The show's summer numbers have been virtually identical to the regular season numbers, a positive sign considering low summer viewing. Fall, more viewing, the election and a lead-in that will at minimum be way better than Saving Hope should help the ratings. Hits last season's original slot average of 1.16 at a heck of a lot less cost.|
Worst Case: Sure, 0.88 isn't the worst thing in the world in the summer. But Elementary is big, Scandal is respectable, and Jersey Shore plus Thursday Night Football make this one of the tougher hours in the fall. Down to 0.75.
Likeliest: The thing about newsmagazines is that they fluctuate a lot. It's looked on about ten different occasions like this show might be on an upswing, then it tanks the next week. On the whole, I see no real momentum either way, and I'll say viewing and competition cancel out and result in a slight election uptick to 0.93.
|Slot Orig Avg|
|Thursday Night Football||NFLN||9/13||2.49|
|It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia||FX||10/11||1.01||+13%|
Network to Watch: I'll take CBS, since they have the new show and the high expectations, but ABC's a close second; Scandal is itself pretty close to being a new show.
My Picks: Re-trying out Scandal, trying out Elementary, will pick up Sunny in October and Burn Notice in November.