Thursday, September 13, 2012

Fall 2012 Best Case/Worst Case, Thursday 10/9c

The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Thursday 10:00 9.1 15 -8% 13 33.6 13 27% 15

As with every other Thursday hour, 10:00 has the lowest viewing of any weeknight 10:00 slot. The hour was significantly down thanks mostly to NBC, where a never-ending string of drama flops came up well shy of what they did at times with a third comedy hour in 2010-11.

Image Scandal Slot Average
Premieres September 27 2.00
Best Case: Airing right at the end of the season, Scandal had about the same True2 score as Private Practice and finished the season with some real momentum. Bounces up to a little better than PP's year-ago numbers at 2.48.

Worst Case:
Season one was a pretty wild ride, but "wild ride" is a lot tougher to sustain across a much larger order than it had last year. Runs out of steam pretty early on and ends up down 20% to a cancel-worthy 1.60.

I do have a feeling this show will almost inevitably settle into something a little duller and more procedural than what it was in season one. I'm not really sure what that show will look like, so I'm saying it breaks even with a 2.01 and hoping for better.
Slot Orig Avg
Private Practice
y2y Label
marginal2.38 1.99
True2 Sitch
1.93 +4%2.01 1.93
2011-12 Slot
Thursday 10:00

Image Elementary (NEW!) Slot Average
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres September 27 2.64
Best Case: Many of the character-based procedurals have drawn inspiration from Sherlock Holmes, so why wouldn't an actual Sherlock Holmes procedural with two likable leads work? Holds all of its Person of Interest lead-in and is the top 10/9c show on TV. 3.20.

Worst Case:
People have trouble understanding Jonny Lee Miller's British mumble. Ends up being a lot more dark and a lot less fun than it seemed like it might have been. Averages just a 2.20 and ends after one season.

This night should have a lot of momentum with The Big Bang Theory and Person of Interest, and putting this show on Thursday over a fourth comedy hour is a pretty big vote of confidence. Right now, I'm not seeing how this ends poorly. 2.87 (tying last year's Person of Interest average) and yet another long-running member of the CBS drama stable.
The Mentalist
2.64 2.42

Image Rock Center Slot Average
Premieres September 27 1.10
Best Case: The show's summer numbers have been virtually identical to the regular season numbers, a positive sign considering low summer viewing. Fall, more viewing, the election and a lead-in that will at minimum be way better than Saving Hope should help the ratings. Hits last season's original slot average of 1.16 at a heck of a lot less cost.

Worst Case:
Sure, 0.88 isn't the worst thing in the world in the summer. But Elementary is big, Scandal is respectable, and Jersey Shore plus Thursday Night Football make this one of the tougher hours in the fall. Down to 0.75.

The thing about newsmagazines is that they fluctuate a lot. It's looked on about ten different occasions like this show might be on an upswing, then it tanks the next week. On the whole, I see no real momentum either way, and I'll say viewing and competition cancel out and result in a slight election uptick to 0.93.
Slot Orig Avg
Prime Suspect
y2y Label
flop1.27 1.16
The Firm
True2 Sitch
0.98 -10%0.93 0.96
2011-12 Slot
Thursday 10:001.08 1.24


ShowNetworkPremieres Avg y2y
Jersey ShoreMTV10/43.22-22%
Thursday Night FootballNFLN9/132.49
Burn NoticeUSA11/81.02-30%
It's Always Sunny in PhiladelphiaFX10/111.01+13%
The LeagueFX10/110.65+7%

Network to Watch: I'll take CBS, since they have the new show and the high expectations, but ABC's a close second; Scandal is itself pretty close to being a new show.

My Picks: Re-trying out Scandal, trying out Elementary, will pick up Sunny in October and Burn Notice in November.


Spot said...

I actually think Elementary is in a fairly precarious situation, as it is a freshman depending on a sophomore lead-in. Scandal will at least have a fairly steady Grey's.

Spot said...

Scandal should at least benefit from airing in the Fall, rather than the Spring. If Grey's can continue the fire that it lit towards the end of last season, Scandal should be able to ride its coat-tails and give ABC a plus on the year-to-year comparison. But Elementary will be the big winner here: a pre-sold concept plus the friendliest network to a procedural will equal a time slot winner at minimum.

Spot said...

It's interesting to go back and look at look at these posts now that we're more than halfway through the season:

Elementary is way off from the best case scenario (3.2) and much closer to the worst case (2.2) with a 2.38 average so far and being beat consistently in its timeslot by Scandal, going from big expectation to big disappointment of the season. Scandal, on the other hand, turned out to have an unexpected revival, ratcheting up in November to timeslot winner and staying there since, averaging well above its slot with a 2.12 so far. Rock Center, of course, is gone.

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