Fall 2012 Best Case/Worst Case, Wednesday 9/8c

The Basics:

	bc	Rank	y2y	Rank	TPUT	Rank	bc/TPUT	Rank
Wednesday 9:00	12.1	5	-9%	18	35.9	6	34%	5

It's a fairly average 9:00 weeknight hour in terms of broadcast viewing and overall viewing. But the combined broadcasters took an above-average hit year-to-year even though ABC and CBS were pretty healthy. Fox losing so much ground with American Idol gets some of the blame, but most of it goes to NBC, who had the weakest performance of any network in any weeknight hour here, not even averaging a 1.0 demo for the regular season!

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		Modern Family	Slot Average
		Premieres September 26	4.13
		Best Case: In comes another truckload of Emmys. And while Modern Family can't quite achieve the 6.1 of last year's premiere, it lives up to those Emmys creatively and holds up better late. Up 4% to a 5.25 and surprisingly holds off The Big Bang Theory and American Idol for top entertainment program. Worst Case: By season's end, Modern Family episodes were a little down year-to-year. That continues to an even greater extent in season four, as living up to last year's red-hot fall pace proves impossible. Down 12% to a 4.44. Likeliest: It'd be cool to see a broadcast show grow in seasons two, three and four, but that's tough to pull off, especially considering the extent of last spring's drops. I think it comes back a touch in season four. But Modern Family remains a megahit and drops less than the league average to a 4.80.	Slot Orig Avg
			5.00
5.05			Occupants
			Modern Family
y2y	Label
+14%	megahit		5.05	4.74
True2	Sitch
4.74	+6%
2011-12 Slot
Wednesday 9:00

		Suburgatory	Slot Average
		Premieres October 17	2.64
		Best Case: I'm not seeing a 56% gain like Happy Endings had last year, but it's still easily the best fit with Modern Family yet. Sophomore bounce + Modern Family bounce = +40% to 3.64. Worst Case: The ABC Wednesday mojo is stunted with Revenge out, The Neighbors in and Modern Family down. Suburgatory can only pull off about Happy Endings numbers, up 4% to a 2.71. Likeliest: Clearly I'm expecting big things out of a show that I really like and that seems a great pair with MF. Last year I said Happy Endings would go only +25% in the post-Modern Fam slot and way undershot. Again, I don't see Suburgatory going up as much because I don't think it's coming from a situation as bad as Happy Endings' was, plus I don't see another big bounce for Modern Family. But I'm still saying it goes +25% to a 3.25 with (relative to previous options) stellar retention of MF.	Slot Orig Avg
			2.74
2.60			Occupants
			Happy Endings
y2y	Label
	solid		2.71	2.13
			Apartment 23
True2	Sitch
2.45	+6%		2.34	2.12
2011-12 Slot
Wednesday 8:30

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		Criminal Minds	Slot Average
		Premieres September 26	2.87
		Best Case: The last four years have gone -1%, -0%, -4%, -2%. So let's just say the best case is a dead-even 3.39. Worst Case: Maybe the Survivor lead-in struggles, maybe Paget Brewster is deeply missed, maybe it drops 10% to a 3.05. Likeliest: I'm so paranoid picking shows like this and NCIS because they have got to fall apart at some point, right? But what justification would I have for saying this is the year that happens? None, really. So I'll just go a little behind those previous four years and say it loses 5% to a 3.22.	Slot Orig Avg
			3.38
3.39			Occupants
			Criminal Minds
y2y	Label
-2%	hit		3.39	3.23
True2	Sitch
3.23	+5%
2011-12 Slot
Wednesday 9:00

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		Law and Order: SVU	Slot Average
		Premieres September 26	0.96
		Best Case: The new shows overperform and lift up long-troubled NBC Wednesday. With something resembling a lead-in for once, SVU is able to hang tight at a 1.91. Worst Case: Right. Guys with Kids and Chicago Fire overperform. Hahahahahaha. The Criminal Minds competition and continued awful lead-ins finally completely kill this show. A 20% drop, a 1.53 average and the end of the iconic L&O brand. Likeliest: Though I've always said the "it's a 10:00 show" thing is overblown with SVU, the bottom line is it's just too late in this show's lifespan for this. They may be so desperate that they still need it, but I'm saying it goes -15% to a 1.62, sits on the bubble, and eventually ends.	Slot Orig Avg
			1.00
1.91			Occupants
			Harry's Law
y2y	Label
-26%	marginal		1.20	1.26
			Rock Center
True2	Sitch
2.02	-5%		0.76	0.97
			Bent
2011-12 Slot
Wednesday 10:00			0.90	1.21

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		The X Factor	Slot Average
		Premieres September 12	4.06
		Best Case: Britney and Demi are huge draws initially, and they're better at actually doing the work than most people think. A megahit is born; it just took a year longer than it was supposed to. 4.50 average, +18%. Worst Case: Britney and Demi are big draws initially, and they're disastrous at actually doing the work. Early year-to-year gains are more than cancelled out by season's end. Down 13% to a 3.30. Likeliest: I do believe it's gonna be up a little bit early; Britney Spears has been a significant draw in nearly everything she's done on TV, after all. But I can't imagine her actually providing significant entertainment value long-term. Down 10% to a 3.43.	Slot Orig Avg
			4.57
3.81			Occupants
			The X Factor
y2y	Label
	big hit		3.84	3.56
			American Idol
True2	Sitch
3.43	+11%		5.33	5.39
			Mobbed
2011-12 Slot
Wednesday 8:00			1.96	1.66

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		Supernatural	Slot Average
		Premieres October 3	0.57
		Best Case: This move back to the midweek should've happened years ago!!! Supernatural is behind TVD and maybe behind its lead-in but way ahead of everything else on the network. Up a whooping 30% to a 0.95. Worst Case: This move back to the midweek should've happened years ago... Now, it's too late for this fast-fading show to bring back old fans en masse. Only breaks even despite the more favorable timeslot and hits a 0.73. Likeliest: There's a lot of recent precedent to examine for shows moving to Friday. Moving from Friday, not so much. Shows like Law & Order and Ugly Betty had 20%ish gains when making those moves at midseason but (especially the second time for L&O) weren't really able to get back to acceptable levels. Then again, Supernatural is already at acceptable levels. I think the show's Arrow lead-in will work and that plus viewing levels are going to create at least some upward movement. I'm saying it's up 15% to a 0.84.	Slot Orig Avg
			0.62
0.73			Occupants
			America's Next Top Model Fall
y2y	Label
-26%			0.85	0.75
			Remodeled
True2	Sitch
0.78	-6%		0.28	0.23
			America's Next Top Model Spring
2011-12 Slot
Friday 9:00			0.53	0.56

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Network to Watch: Interested to see how Suburgatory does, but I'm picking Fox here. Do Britney and Demi give Fox a megahit program for the fall or does that experiment totally blow up?

My Picks: Modern Family and Suburgatory!