Sunday, September 9, 2012

Fall 2012 Best Case/Worst Case, Sunday 9/8c


The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Sunday 9:00 14.0 2 -9% 17 39.7 1 35% 2

It's the most-overall viewed hour of the primetime week, and thanks to Sunday Night Football it's also the second-most competitive hour on broadcast. That doesn't even account for all of cable's heavy hitters on the evening. The broadcasters were down an above-average amount thanks to most of the heavy hitters (Desperate Housewives, Family Guy, Celebrity Apprentice) taking significant year-to-year hits.



Image Revenge Slot Average
Premieres September 30 2.59
Best Case: A hit is born! The second season is even better than the first, the timeslot has no prohibitive competition, and it holds almost all of its much better lead-in. 3.00, up by over 20%.

Worst Case:
Lead-in shmead-in. The show only had about a season of story in it and crumbles to a 2.10, down 15%, and it barely limps into a third season.

Likeliest:
Everything sets up quite nicely in the timeslot, but I'm still not as sold on the show itself as a lot of people, and I thought the episodes after Tyler left were kinda underwhelming. I'm gonna say it ends up right in the middle of the season one pace and the year-ago Desperate Housewives pace with a 2.60. That'd be up 6%.
Slot Orig Avg
2.67
2.46Occupants
Desperate Housewives
y2y Label
solid2.74 2.23
True2 Sitch
2.22 +11%
2011-12 Slot
Wednesday 10:00



Image The Good Wife Slot Average
Premieres September 30 2.47
Best Case: Now settled in on Sunday and with Desperate Housewives out of the slot, the bleeding stops completely. Averages an even 2.00.

Worst Case:
As much as they love the show, CBS struggles to ignore a noticeable season four ratings downturn. It loses 15% to a 1.70, seemingly drags down The Mentalist, and CBS finally pulls the plug.

Likeliest:
I imagine ABC's transition from Desperate Housewives to Revenge will pretty much be a wash, as both those shows skewed similarly last year. Maybe it matters if Revenge blows away the year-ago DH ratings, but I personally don't think that happens. Down 7% to a 1.86 and is again CBS' lowest-rated weeknight renewal.
Slot Orig Avg
2.32
2.01Occupants
The Good Wife
y2y Label
-9% marginal2.01 1.61
True2 Sitch
1.64 +23%
2011-12 Slot
Sunday 9:00



Image Sunday Night Football Slot Average
Premieres September 5 5.81
Best Case: It's football! I mean, why wouldn't it just grow into perpetuity? America loves its foooooooootball! Give it another 5% and an 8.78 average.

Worst Case:
Have you seen some of these kinda stinky preseason ratings? Also, people become more informed on the concussion issues that are starting to hang over the sport. Down 10% to a still ridiculous 7.52.

Likeliest:
I think the bad preseason ratings are about matchups to some extent, but I also believe football cannot possibly grow forever. I think it begins to inch down this year. The concussion issues are still a little too far off the radar to make much impact. All told, a 4% decline to an even 8.00.
Slot Orig Avg
1.76
8.36Occupants
Sunday Night Football
y2y Label
+1% megahit8.36 7.34
Celebrity Apprentice
True2 Sitch
7.34 +14%2.05 2.00
2011-12 Slot
Sunday 8:30



Image Family Guy Slot Average
Premieres September 30 3.25
Best Case: The repeat ratings have been heating up fast in recent weeks. Drops just 3% to a 2.94.

Worst Case:
The NFL continues to prop up the early season numbers, but the late-season struggles get worse and worse. Duplicates last year's -15% and posts a 2.58.

Likeliest:
The show has indeed been falling a little faster the last couple years, but the summer repeats remain so remarkably strong that I don't really see it falling apart against virtually the same competition. I'll say it loses 9% to a 2.76.
Slot Orig Avg
3.08
3.03Occupants
Family Guy
y2y Label
-15% hit3.03 2.60
True2 Sitch
2.60 +17%
2011-12 Slot
Sunday 9:00

Image American Dad! Slot Average
Premieres September 30 2.82
Best Case: I'm taking the same year-to-year range with this show as with Family Guy. If its lead-in is down just 3%, so is Dad! 2.22.

Worst Case:
Duplicates Family Guy's worst-case -15% and ends up with a 1.94.

Likeliest:
American Dad! hasn't had a "regular" year-to-year comparison in awhile, since it moved to 7:30 in 2010-11 and took a big hit, then went back to 9:30 in 2011-12 and gained a touch. So all I can really figure is that it'll follow Family Guy wherever it goes. I give it a -9% to a 2.08.
 Slot Orig Avg
2.37
2.28Occupants
American Dad!
y2y Label
+2% marginal2.28 1.85
True2 Sitch
1.85 +23%
2011-12 Slot
Sunday 9:30



Cable:

ShowNetworkPremieres Avg y2y
The Walking DeadAMC10/143.41+29%
Boardwalk EmpireHBO9/161.13-16%
DexterSHO9/300.93-1%



Network to Watch: Definitely ABC. I could see Revenge taking a noticeable step up or just completely failing to recapture what it had last year and taking a big step down. Either way, this was the big move of the ABC upfront and one of their highest-stakes hours of the season.

My Picks: The Walking Dead and Revenge.

2 comments:

Spot said...

There is no way that The Good Wife gets renewed. It shouldn't have been renewed last year as the lowest-rated show outside of Fridays. Once they have enough episodes for syndication, there is no excuse to waste such a good time slot following Amazing Race. I don't think it even deserves a summer renewal, like Unforgettable.

Spot said...

If CBS decides they want 100 episodes instead of just 88(which seems like a fair enough assessment since hardly any of their other product that passes season two seems to fall short of 100 eps), they might give it a 13-ep final season and tell them to wrap the plotlines. But there's probably a basement for the ratings that would make it prohibitive on CBS' part.

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