Saturday, September 1, 2012

Fall 2012 Best Case/Worst Case, Saturday 8/7c

The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Saturday 8:00 4.6 21 -8% 14 28.2 21 16% 21

The ultimate TV graveyard, with the least broadcast viewing and the least overall viewing and the least percent broadcast viewing of any of the primetime hours.

Image Saturday Night Football Slot Average
Premieres September 1 1.06
Best Case: ABC lands another thrilling slate of games and handily beats down the competing offerings on Fox (and the ESPN's). Up another percent to 2.25.

Worst Case:
The games just aren't quite as incredible as last year's, plus Fox's games take out a legit chunk. Down 15% to 1.90.

I do think ABC was somewhat lucky with last year's games, including the epic Stanford/USC and USC/Oregon games as well as other intriguing matchups like Oklahoma/FSU. It probably comes back down a bit to a 2.05.
Slot Orig Avg
Saturday Night Football
y2y Label
+11% marginal2.23 2.23
True2 Sitch
2.23 +0%
2011-12 Slot
Saturday 8:00

Image CFB on Fox (NEW!) Slot Average
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres September 1 1.07
Best Case: Many of the biggest games on ABC last season were Pac-12 matchups, and if ever there were a year to pick up the Pac-12, it's this one, with USC back atop the rankings. Very competitive with ABC at a 1.70 average.

Worst Case:
The Fox slate of possibilities is simply not as diverse as ABC/ESPN's, and they end up getting stuck with a bunch of blowouts and unimpressive matchups. 1.00.

I'm not 100% sure on what each network has the rights to, but the sense I get is that the incumbent ABC will ultimately have the much better choices. So I'm giving Fox a 1.20.
1.16 1.14
America's Most Wanted
1.10 1.22

Network to Watch: I guess I'll go with Fox since they're the relative newbie in the sports realm. How close will they be with a likely stronger slate of ABC offerings? Can they stay squarely ahead of the year-ago Cops average?

My Picks: College football!

1 comment:

Spot said...

FOX will certainly be helped if USC stays #1 most of the season. ABC has NASCAR next week and October 13.

Post a Comment

© 2009-2022. All Rights Reserved.