Monday, September 3, 2012

Fall 2012 Best Case/Worst Case, Monday 9/8c

The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Monday 9:00 12.6 4 +13% 1 38.5 2 33% 6

Monday 9:00 was the only 2011-12 hour where the combined broadcasters did a whole lot better than in 2010-11. Of course the biggest stories were The Voice and the absolute explosion early on by Two and a Half Men, but Fox also made some improvements at times by airing House rather than stuff like The Chicago Code. It's also the second most overall-viewed hour of the whole week, trailing only Sunday 9:00.

Image Dancing with the Stars Slot Average
Premieres September 24 2.67
Best Case: Armed with an all-star edition and now accustomed to dueling with talent competitions, the bleeding slows considerably. DWTS drops just 5% this fall and hits a 3.12.

Worst Case:
When a show like this starts dropping heavily, the odds are against that slowing down in any kind of meaningful way. Another -24% to a downright alarming 2.50.

I'm just not sold that two music competitions can co-exist long term, but I do think DWTS will drop a lot less than The Voice this fall with the all-stars. I'll say it's down a mere 12% to a 2.90.
Slot Orig Avg
Dancing with the Stars Fall
y2y Label
-24% hit3.32 2.85
The Bachelor Spring
True2 Sitch
2.84 +16%2.54 2.43
Dancing with the Stars Spring
2011-12 Slot
Monday 8:002.98 3.12

Image 2 Broke Girls Slot Average
Premieres September 24 4.13
Best Case: With some help from a successful Partners lead-in, 2 Broke Girls becomes easily the top show of Monday, and it holds up better in the spring against diminished competition. A 5% bounce in its sophomore season to a 4.46 average.

Worst Case:
As some suspected, the fourth-biggest scripted show of 2011-12 is somehow "not ready to anchor an hour." The next Two and a Half Men it certainly is not. Down 15% to a solid but underwhelming 3.60.

I'm still no fan of how CBS did their Monday/Thursday skeds (even if time has mellowed me somewhat since the upfront) but I tend to think moving 2BG to 9:00 is not as risky as people think. It'll be fine. Season two is usually very good to sitcoms, but it'll be tough to recapture all the mojo this block had last year. I'm giving it an even-money 4.25.
Slot Orig Avg
Two and a Half Men
y2y Label
big hit4.96 4.04
True2 Sitch
3.50 +21%
2011-12 Slot
Monday 8:30

Image Mike and Molly Slot Average
Premieres September 24 3.41
Best Case: Mike and Molly quietly held up pretty well last season while Kutcher-led Two and a Half Men was crumbling. The 2 Broke Girls pairing will work better than people think. An even-money 3.72.

Worst Case:
2BG disappoints at 9:00, and this show just isn't quite the same now that they're married, or something. Drops 17% to a 3.09.

Even the most optimistic outlook for 2BG probably has it well behind what Two and a Half Men did last year (especially early on), so its lead-in won't be quite as strong. I say a 10% drop to a 3.36, putting it right at its average in season one.
Slot Orig Avg
Mike and Molly
y2y Label
+11% big hit3.72 2.95
True2 Sitch
2.95 +26%
2011-12 Slot
Monday 9:30

Image The Voice Slot Average
Premieres September 10 3.18
Best Case: Airing in the fall helps it average a 4.40 demo (-9%) and continue to crush DWTS.

Worst Case:
The gimmick that seems such a large part of this show's appeal is no longer fresh and new. There's no obvious boost from the Super Bowl. And there's one hell of a drop. It's down 29% to a 3.40 and actually goes a touch behind DWTS by season's end.

Hate to do it, but I'm a seller on this show. I just don't really buy that the chairs gimmick (even though I like it) will continue being a huge draw to open every season long-term. It'll remain big (especially for NBC!), but it's going down 24% to a 3.66.
Slot Orig Avg
The Sing-Off
y2y Label
+5% megahit1.56 1.38
Who's Still Standing?
True2 Sitch
4.64 +4%1.58 1.39
The Voice Mon
2011-12 Slot
Monday 8:004.82 4.64

Image The Mob Doctor (NEW!) Slot Average
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres September 17 2.40
Best Case: I love Jordana Spiro! Josh Berman of Drop Dead Diva knows how to make silly premises into decent shows! The Mob Doctor exceeds its low expectations, holds most of the Bones audience and gets a back nine and a Friday pairing at midseason with Kitchen Nightmares. But Friday is one mystery she can't solve, and it's cancelled at season's end. 1.90 average on Monday.

Worst Case:
"You're hired, but we're also hiring someone to replace you four months from now." That doesn't feel like much of a vote of confidence. Against a lot of competition, it can't really get any traction, but it airs much of the 13-ep string because Fox has little else. 1.20.

Some day I may have to do a post on how many new shows with no spot on the midseason schedule at the upfront actually manage to survive. I'm guessing not very many. I do love Spiro from My Boys, but even without having seen this I can buy that she's fairly miscast here. Airs all 13 and out. 1.50.
2.51 2.36
2.03 1.98

Image Gossip Girl Slot Average
Premieres October 8 0.50
Best Case: Final seasons always do pretty well year-to-year! Plus, no tough airings in the spring. Breaks even at a 0.59.

Worst Case:
It's hard to imagine a short fall final season dropping another 32%, but clearly people are leaving in droves, and the final season only slows that a bit. Down another 22% to an ugly 0.46.

A midseason final run for One Tree Hill dropped just 12% last year, but that show was never declining quite as speedily as Gossip Girl. So I say despite airing only in the fall, Gossip drops about as much as OTH. Down 12% to 0.52.
Slot Orig Avg
Hart of Dixie
y2y Label
-32% 0.64 0.56
True2 Sitch
0.52 +12%
2011-12 Slot
Monday 8:00


ShowNetworkPremieres Avg y2y
Monday Night FootballESPN9/105.38-8%
WWE Raw (11-12 avg)USAongoing1.70

Network to Watch: I'm going with CBS here just for a little Monday variety. There's some pretty legitimate doubt about whether 2 Broke Girls has the goods to be thrown into the Two and a Half Men role in just its second season. I personally think it's gonna be fine, but it's always possible it could go the other way. And if it does, it could spell bad things for CBS Monday.

My Picks: I'm giving The Mob Doctor a shot. Did I mention I love Jordana Spiro? I watched all of 2 Broke Girls last season but I have a feeling I'm going to be staying away this year. So this may wind up being a "have Monday Night Football on in the background" hour pretty quickly.

1 comment:

Spot said...

- The Mob Doctor: I agree with everything. Even the best scenario has it canceled, so yeah, enough said!
- 2 Broke Girls: I also think that everything considered, predicting it to do the sae rating as last year is the wisest guess. It has some points in its favour and some points against it, so all balanced, it will probably get around the same average, which I think will still be pretty good. Probably will explode when it hits syndication
- Mike and Molly: this is one in which I think problems might actually arise. It's CBS, so the level will still be quite high, but the weaker (and newer) lead in will leave a show that I have always felt was lead-in dependent and with almost no buzz itself closer to the bubble than we might suspect. Sooo, yeah, I think your likeliest scenario is a bit too optimistic with this one, but it may be only me.
- Gossip Girl: Spot On

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