Friday, April 15, 2011

First Two Weeks, Breaking In


BREAKING IN (FOX)



WEEK ONE
There was a much ballyhooed stat released by Fox research the day after Breaking In's premiere touting the show's "best retention by a post-Idol sitcom since 'Til Death in 2007." That was true, but it didn't exactly have much competition. I only count four, actually. (One episode each of 'Til Death and Back to You in 2008 and Raising Hope and Traffic Light in 2011.) So there's not exactly a ton of precedent for what a sitcom should do after a ninety-minute episode of Idol. At least Breaking In did better than the reasonably established Raising Hope, scoring a 3.5 demo out of Idol's 7.3. It's kind of an instinct thing, but that felt OK to me, though certainly worse than a show that gets a 3.5 in average circumstances.

WEEK TWO
But if Breaking In's first week was the best post-Idol sitcom performance in recent history, then Breaking In's second week was probably the worst. The Idol lead-in pulled the same 7.3, but Breaking In dropped 26% to just a 2.6 demo. The show arguably did worse than what Traffic Light did after Idol six weeks prior (it got a 2.8 with Idol scoring a 7.8). "Worse than Traffic Light," one of the 2010-11 season's biggest bombs, can't be a good place to be.

PROGNOSIS
The only real way to spin Breaking In's week two is to note that it did face a sitcom series premiere on ABC which attracted a decent audience. Perhaps fans of comedy will return to Breaking In in future weeks. But I don't think week two was a positive at all. Even if it stabilizes right here, I'm not sure it's safe, and it may well be one of those "retention cancellations" that certain other TV ratings sites insist don't exist. I don't feel totally comfortable because, as noted, there's sort of a lack of recent precedent for this kind of situation. But I'm gonna say it gets the axe.

SYSTEM (explanation)

WEEK ONE (tiers worth 4, 2, 0 points)
Bob's Burgers 4.5
$#*! My Dad Says 4.0
Hawaii Five-0 3.9
Mike & Molly 3.9
Mr. Sunshine 3.7
The Event 3.6
Outsourced 3.6
BREAKING IN 3.5
Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior 3.3
No Ordinary Family 3.2
Law & Order: Los Angeles 3.2

Hellcats (3.2)
Body of Proof 3.1
Raising Hope 3.1
Mad Love 3.0 
The Defenders 2.9
Blue Bloods (2.8)
Nikita (2.7)
The Cape 2.6 
Better with You 2.5 
Running Wilde 2.4
The Chicago Code 2.4 
Off the Map 2.3

Chase 2.3
Outlaw 2.3
Detroit 1-8-7 2.3
Harry's Law 2.2 
Undercovers 2.1
Perfect Couples 2.1 
Traffic Light 1.9
My Generation 1.6
The Whole Truth 1.5
Chaos (1.4)
Lone Star 1.3

Friday premieres = 1.25 * A18-49
CW premieres = 1.5 * W18-34

WEEK TWO (tiers worth 2, 1, 0 points)
Raising Hope even
Harry's Law -5% 
Mike & Molly -5%
Mad Love -7%
Hawaii Five-0 -8%
Chase -9%
Detroit 1-8-7 -9%
Off the Map -9%
Blue Bloods -9%
Better with You -12%
The Defenders -14%

No Ordinary Family -16%
The Chicago Code -17%
Nikita -17%
$#*! My Dad Says -18%
Chaos -18%
Hellcats -19%
Perfect Couples -19%
The Event -19%
The Whole Truth -20%
Running Wilde -21%
Outsourced -22%

Body of Proof -23%
Lone Star -23%
Undercovers -24%
Law & Order: Los Angeles -25%
BREAKING IN -26%
Traffic Light -26%
Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior -27%
Mr. Sunshine -30%
The Cape -31% 
My Generation -31%
Bob's Burgers -44%
Outlaw -52%

EXCELLENT (5-6 points): Hawaii Five-0, Mike & Molly (6 points), The Event, $#*! My Dad Says, No Ordinary Family, Outsourced (5 points)
BORDERLINE (3-4 points): Off the Map, Law & Order: Los Angeles, Raising Hope, Blue Bloods, Bob's Burgers, Better with You, Mr. Sunshine, Mad Love, Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior, The Defenders, BREAKING IN (4 points), Running Wilde, Nikita, The Chicago Code, Hellcats (3 points)
IN TROUBLE (0-2 points): Detroit 1-8-7, Chase, The Cape, Harry's Law, Body of Proof (2 points), The Whole Truth, Perfect Couples, Chaos (1 point), Outlaw, Undercovers, My Generation, Lone Star, Traffic Light (0 points)

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