Tuesday, April 12, 2011

First Two Weeks, Chaos


CHAOS (CBS)



WEEK ONE
Chaos was basically dead on arrival. Its 1.1 demo was the lowest for any new scripted show this season and since Fox's Brothers got just a 1.0 in the fall of 2009. That number tied the low point for Medium in the timeslot this season (and CBS shortened Medium's order from 22 to 13 immediately following said 1.1) as well as the low point for The Defenders in this timeslot. For a premiere, that's ugly, and there's really no other data needed.

WEEK TWO
But things got even worse in week two with an 18% drop to just a 0.9 demo. So now we're talking about way worse numbers than any original that's aired in this timeslot this season.

PROGNOSIS
It was certainly possible CBS could've pulled Chaos over the weekend, but because it's late in the season and there's really nothing else practical that would cause a significant improvement, Chaos might stick around for a few more weeks. There's still zero chance for a renewal. That much should probably have been clear before the show even premiered; the Friday 8/7c treatment for a new scripted show is a clear sign the network has no belief in it. And Chaos hasn't exactly made the best of its bad situation.

SYSTEM (explanation)

WEEK ONE (tiers worth 4, 2, 0 points)
Bob's Burgers 4.5
$#*! My Dad Says 4.0
Hawaii Five-0 3.9
Mike & Molly 3.9
Mr. Sunshine 3.7
The Event 3.6
Outsourced 3.6
Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior 3.3
No Ordinary Family 3.2
Law & Order: Los Angeles 3.2
Hellcats (3.2)

Body of Proof 3.1
Raising Hope 3.1
Mad Love 3.0 
The Defenders 2.9
Blue Bloods (2.8)
Nikita (2.7)
The Cape 2.6 
Better with You 2.5 
Running Wilde 2.4
The Chicago Code 2.4 
Off the Map 2.3

Chase 2.3
Outlaw 2.3
Detroit 1-8-7 2.3
Harry's Law 2.2 
Undercovers 2.1
Perfect Couples 2.1 
Traffic Light 1.9
My Generation 1.6
The Whole Truth 1.5
Chaos (1.4)
Lone Star 1.3

Friday premieres = 1.25 * A18-49
CW premieres = 1.5 * W18-34

WEEK TWO (tiers worth 2, 1, 0 points)
Raising Hope even
Harry's Law -5% 
Mike & Molly -5%
Mad Love -7%
Hawaii Five-0 -8%
Chase -9%
Detroit 1-8-7 -9%
Off the Map -9%
Blue Bloods -9%
Better with You -12%
The Defenders -14%

No Ordinary Family -16%
The Chicago Code -17%
Nikita -17%
$#*! My Dad Says -18%
Chaos -18%
Hellcats -19%
Perfect Couples -19%
The Event -19%
The Whole Truth -20%
Running Wilde -21%
Outsourced -22%

Body of Proof -23%
Lone Star -23%
Undercovers -24%
Law & Order: Los Angeles -25%
Traffic Light -26%
Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior -27%
Mr. Sunshine -30%
The Cape -31% 
My Generation -31%
Bob's Burgers -44%
Outlaw -52%

EXCELLENT (5-6 points): Hawaii Five-0, Mike & Molly (6 points), The Event, $#*! My Dad Says, No Ordinary Family, Outsourced, Hellcats (5 points)
BORDERLINE (3-4 points): Off the Map, Law & Order: Los Angeles, Raising Hope, Blue Bloods, Bob's Burgers, Better with You, Mr. Sunshine, Mad Love, Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior, The Defenders (4 points), Running Wilde, Nikita, The Chicago Code (3 points)
IN TROUBLE (0-2 points): Detroit 1-8-7, Chase, The Cape, Harry's Law, Body of Proof (2 points), The Whole Truth, Perfect Couples, Chaos (1 point), Outlaw, Undercovers, My Generation, Lone Star, Traffic Light (0 points)

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