Friday, February 25, 2011

First Two Weeks, Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior


CRIMINAL MINDS: SUSPECT BEHAVIOR (CBS)


WEEK ONE
The premiere of Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior did pretty solid business. It wouldn't even take two hands to count the number of broadcast episodes that have done better than CM:SB's 3.3 demo at 10:00 on any night this season. It built by a tenth from the mothership's 3.2 on the night, though that show obviously had a ton of competition in American Idol. And it was a stronger premiere than that of The Defenders (2.9) back in the fall (when Minds was higher).

WEEK TWO
But as has been the case with most big premieres this season, week two changed the story. Despite Minds pulling another reliable 3.2, Suspect Behavior plummeted 27% to just a 2.4 demo. That's easily the biggest week two drop for a CBS newbie this season (the largest in their previous six was $#!* My Dad Says' 18%) and about on par with the big tumble that fellow procedural spinoff Law & Order: Los Angeles took in this hour back in the fall. The 2.4 already leaves it behind night two of The Defenders, though still well ahead of the later Defenders eps. It's also already losing head-to-head with Law & Order: SVU, for whatever that's worth.

PROGNOSIS 
It's a rough year to look at the first two weeks, since no show lately seems capable of a good week one and a good week two. It's tough to just ride the critical wave and say Suspect Behavior is doomed because people think it sucks; the critical wave also hates the mothership and that's still chugging along. And it's not the first CBS procedural spinoff to struggle in the post-premiere weeks. CSI: Miami dropped 27% by week three, while CSI: NY was down 27% by week four, and both of those have gone on to become parts of a lucrative franchise. But there was some clear ratings rejection right off the bat here, and there seems to be a negative buzz even among fans of Minds.  Though the fall schedule is not exactly formed yet, Wednesday 10:00 looks like one of the few spots that might be ripe for a promising new drama. So I'll say this one doesn't make it to season 2. I'm not very confident, but that steep week two drop has already got the show close to bubble territory.

SYSTEM (explanation)

WEEK ONE (tiers worth 4, 2, 0 points)
Bob's Burgers 4.5
$#*! My Dad Says 4.0
Hawaii Five-0 3.9
Mike & Molly 3.9
Mr. Sunshine 3.7
The Event 3.6
Outsourced 3.6
Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior 3.3
No Ordinary Family 3.2
Law & Order: Los Angeles 3.2

Hellcats (3.2)
Raising Hope 3.1
Mad Love 3.0 
The Defenders 2.9
Blue Bloods (2.8)
Nikita (2.7)
The Cape 2.6 
Better with You 2.5 
Running Wilde 2.4
The Chicago Code 2.4

Off the Map 2.3
Chase 2.3
Outlaw 2.3
Detroit 1-8-7 2.3
Harry's Law 2.2 
Undercovers 2.1
Perfect Couples 2.1 
Traffic Light 1.9
My Generation 1.6
The Whole Truth 1.5
Lone Star 1.3

Friday premieres = 1.25 * A18-49
CW premieres = 1.5 * W18-34

WEEK TWO (tiers worth 2, 1, 0 points)
Raising Hope even
Harry's Law -5% 
Mike & Molly -5%
Mad Love -7%
Hawaii Five-0 -8%
Chase -9%
Detroit 1-8-7 -9%
Off the Map -9%
Blue Bloods -9%
Better with You -12%

The Defenders -14%
No Ordinary Family -16%
The Chicago Code -17%
Nikita -17%
$#*! My Dad Says -18%
Hellcats -19%
Perfect Couples -19%
The Event -19%
The Whole Truth -20%
Running Wilde -21%

Outsourced -22%
Lone Star -23%
Undercovers -24%
Law & Order: Los Angeles -25%
Traffic Light -26%
Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior -27%
Mr. Sunshine -30%
The Cape -31% 
My Generation -31%
Bob's Burgers -44%
Outlaw -52%

EXCELLENT (5-6 points): Hawaii Five-0, Mike & Molly (6 points), The Event, $#*! My Dad Says, No Ordinary Family (5 points)
BORDERLINE (3-4 points): Law & Order: Los Angeles, Outsourced, Raising Hope, Blue Bloods, Bob's Burgers, Better with You, Mr. Sunshine, Mad Love, Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior (4 points), Running Wilde, The Defenders, Nikita, The Chicago Code, Hellcats (3 points)
IN TROUBLE (0-2 points): Off the Map, Detroit 1-8-7, Chase, The Cape, Harry's Law (2 points), The Whole Truth, Perfect Couples (1 point), Outlaw, Undercovers, My Generation, Lone Star, Traffic Light (0 points)

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