Thursday, February 17, 2011

First Two Weeks, Mr. Sunshine


Raw-numbers-wise, the premiere of Mr. Sunshine looked pretty darn good; the 3.7 demo was the highest for an ABC show this season and a top-5 premiere among all networks. The slightly disconcerting note (which I pointed out on the Twitter last week) was the 27% drop from lead-in Modern Family, whose 5.1 demo tied a series high. Still, it was a better performance than any episode of usual timeslot occupant Cougar Town since the second week of that series back in September 2009.

Then the pain came in week two, with a pretty huge 30% drop leaving Sunshine at a mediocre 2.6 demo, already comparable to recent Cougar episodes, and its retention percentage (60%) was worse than all but one Cougar ep to date. Its premiere may have been one of TV's five biggest this season, but its week two drop is also one of TV's five biggest. But Modern Family also took a hit (down 16% week-to-week to a 4.3) and both of the drops owe a lot to the presence of American Idol in the hour. It wasn't there last week. 

I've said in past First Two Weeks posts that one of the toughest scenarios to predict based on two weeks is the big premiere and the big drop, because it usually means the show is still posting acceptable or better numbers, but you just can't feel too confident about it staying there. This is a case reminiscent of Bob's Burgers in that both the premiere was deceptive (because of the huge Modern Family lead-in) and the drop was also deceptive (because of Idol joining the hour). Unfortunately, it will have to continue going up against Idol for pretty much all of its run, with only the April 6 episode getting a break. Maybe it's not the 9:30 savior the net was hoping for, but I'm going to very hesitantly predict it gets renewed. Even if it's gonna retain at a slightly worse clip than Cougar Town, ABC liked that show's performance enough to renew it early. Also, ABC is facing the real prospect of completely whiffing on new shows otherwise.

SYSTEM (explanation)

WEEK ONE (tiers worth 4, 2, 0 points)
Bob's Burgers 4.5
$#*! My Dad Says 4.0
Hawaii Five-0 3.9
Mike & Molly 3.9
Mr. Sunshine 3.7
The Event 3.6
Outsourced 3.6
No Ordinary Family 3.2
Law & Order: Los Angeles 3.2

Hellcats (3.2)
Raising Hope 3.1
The Defenders 2.9
Blue Bloods (2.8)
Nikita (2.7)
The Cape 2.6 
Better with You 2.5 
Running Wilde 2.4
The Chicago Code 2.4
Off the Map 2.3

Chase 2.3
Outlaw 2.3
Detroit 1-8-7 2.3
Harry's Law 2.2 
Undercovers 2.1
Perfect Couples 2.1 
Traffic Light 1.9
My Generation 1.6
The Whole Truth 1.5
Lone Star 1.3

Friday premieres = 1.25 * A18-49
CW premieres = 1.5 * W18-34

WEEK TWO (tiers worth 2, 1, 0 points)
Raising Hope even
Harry's Law -5% 
Mike & Molly -5%
Hawaii Five-0 -8%
Chase -9%
Detroit 1-8-7 -9%
Off the Map -9%
Blue Bloods-9%
Better with You -12%

The Defenders -14%
No Ordinary Family -16%
The Chicago Code -17%
Nikita -17%
$#*! My Dad Says -18%
Hellcats -19%
Perfect Couples -19%
The Event -19%
The Whole Truth -20%
Running Wilde -21%

Outsourced -22%
Lone Star -23%
Undercovers -24%
Law & Order: Los Angeles -25%
Traffic Light -26%
Mr. Sunshine -30%
The Cape -31% 
My Generation -31%
Bob's Burgers -44%
Outlaw -52%

EXCELLENT (5-6 points): Hawaii Five-0, Mike & Molly (6 points), The Event, $#*! My Dad Says, No Ordinary Family (5 points)
BORDERLINE (3-4 points): Law & Order: Los Angeles, Outsourced, Raising Hope, Blue Bloods, Bob's Burgers, Off the Map, Better with You, Mr. Sunshine (4 points), Running Wilde, The Defenders, Nikita, The Chicago Code, Hellcats (3 points)
IN TROUBLE (0-2 points): Detroit 1-8-7, Chase, The Cape, Harry's Law (2 points), The Whole Truth, Perfect Couples (1 point), Outlaw, Undercovers, My Generation, Lone Star, Traffic Light (0 points)

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