Thursday, February 24, 2011

First Two Weeks, Mad Love


MAD LOVE (CBS)



WEEK ONE
It's been proclaimed a "perfect match for How I Met Your Mother" in some circles, but Mad Love didn't look that way out of the gate. Its 3.0 demo was down two ticks from the last episode of Rules of Engagement in the half-hour, behind Rules' average this season (3.11), and seven-tenths lower than its HIMYM lead-in (3.7). Most nets would be happy to have a 3.0 for a premiere almost anywhere on the schedule, but for CBS in this half-hour, it isn't great.

WEEK TWO
Mad Love didn't drop much in week two. The 7% drop put it at a 2.8 demo. Percentage-wise, that's a very good week two, but the problem is that the 2.8 already leaves it behind any airing of Rules this season.

PROGNOSIS
There's not a lot of margin of error when you're airing after HIMYM on CBS Mondays, as the slot has claimed many a victim in the past, and the modest 3.0 premiere pretty much used up all of that margin of error. A 2.8 is a great number on many nets in many timeslots, but in this particular situation, Mad Love probably needs to swing back up to get into the season 2 conversation. That's not a ludicrous proposition considering how little it came down in week two, but the problem is that the return of Dancing with the Stars looms in a few weeks, and that show typically hurts the CBS comedies noticeably. I wouldn't really be that surprised if this show finds a way to get renewed, but based on what we have right now, I don't have much choice but to predict that it gets the axe.

SYSTEM (explanation)

WEEK ONE (tiers worth 4, 2, 0 points)
Bob's Burgers 4.5
$#*! My Dad Says 4.0
Hawaii Five-0 3.9
Mike & Molly 3.9
Mr. Sunshine 3.7
The Event 3.6
Outsourced 3.6
No Ordinary Family 3.2
Law & Order: Los Angeles 3.2
Hellcats (3.2)

Raising Hope 3.1
Mad Love 3.0 
The Defenders 2.9
Blue Bloods (2.8)
Nikita (2.7)
The Cape 2.6 
Better with You 2.5 
Running Wilde 2.4
The Chicago Code 2.4
Off the Map 2.3

Chase 2.3
Outlaw 2.3
Detroit 1-8-7 2.3
Harry's Law 2.2 
Undercovers 2.1
Perfect Couples 2.1 
Traffic Light 1.9
My Generation 1.6
The Whole Truth 1.5
Lone Star 1.3

Friday premieres = 1.25 * A18-49
CW premieres = 1.5 * W18-34

WEEK TWO (tiers worth 2, 1, 0 points)
Raising Hope even
Harry's Law -5% 
Mike & Molly -5%
Mad Love -7%
Hawaii Five-0 -8%
Chase -9%
Detroit 1-8-7 -9%
Off the Map -9%
Blue Bloods-9%
Better with You -12%

The Defenders -14%
No Ordinary Family -16%
The Chicago Code -17%
Nikita -17%
$#*! My Dad Says -18%
Hellcats -19%
Perfect Couples -19%
The Event -19%
The Whole Truth -20%
Running Wilde -21%

Outsourced -22%
Lone Star -23%
Undercovers -24%
Law & Order: Los Angeles -25%
Traffic Light -26%
Mr. Sunshine -30%
The Cape -31% 
My Generation -31%
Bob's Burgers -44%
Outlaw -52%

EXCELLENT (5-6 points): Hawaii Five-0, Mike & Molly (6 points), The Event, $#*! My Dad Says, No Ordinary Family, Hellcats (5 points)
BORDERLINE (3-4 points): Law & Order: Los Angeles, Outsourced, Raising Hope, Blue Bloods, Bob's Burgers, Off the Map, Better with You, Mr. Sunshine, Mad Love (4 points), Running Wilde, The Defenders, Nikita, The Chicago Code (3 points)
IN TROUBLE (0-2 points): Detroit 1-8-7, Chase, The Cape, Harry's Law (2 points), The Whole Truth, Perfect Couples (1 point), Outlaw, Undercovers, My Generation, Lone Star, Traffic Light (0 points)

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