Wednesday, February 16, 2011

First Two Weeks, The Chicago Code


The 2.4 demo for the premiere of The Chicago Code was certainly pretty underwhelming considering its lead-in House hit a season-high 4.3 demo and the show got some rather heavily viewed Super Bowl promotion. That means the show held only 56% of the House demo audience, even though it did do much better among older viewers.

In week two, Code headed down 17% to a 2.0 demo. It's a fairly average week two drop for a new show, at least in this awful year for new shows, but it's made a little better by the fact that its lead-in also went way down; House pulled just a 3.4, down a whooping 21% week-to-week.

I think it's probably a pretty high-percentage move to pick against a show that's already in bubble territory by week two. The week two result actually probably improved the prospects relative to the week one result, because it held up in OK fashion despite its lead-in tumbling, but the show is now pretty close to Lie to Me territory (it averaged a 1.90 demo this season, mostly airing after House originals), and Lie to Me is probably a bubble show at best at this point. Plenty of shows that have had reasonable week twos have then kept dropping, and this one doesn't have far to go before it's really trouble time. And Dancing with the Stars will be ramping up the competition level in the hour about a month down the line. I'll say no season 2, but not with a great deal of confidence (especially since I think the show is quite good).

SYSTEM (explanation)

WEEK ONE (tiers worth 4, 2, 0 points)
Bob's Burgers 4.5
$#*! My Dad Says 4.0
Hawaii Five-0 3.9
Mike & Molly 3.9
The Event 3.6
Outsourced 3.6
No Ordinary Family 3.2
Law & Order: Los Angeles 3.2
Hellcats (3.2)

Raising Hope 3.1
The Defenders 2.9
Blue Bloods (2.8)
Nikita (2.7)
The Cape 2.6 
Better with You 2.5 
Running Wilde 2.4
The Chicago Code 2.4
Off the Map 2.3

Chase 2.3
Outlaw 2.3
Detroit 1-8-7 2.3
Harry's Law 2.2 
Undercovers 2.1
Perfect Couples 2.1
My Generation 1.6
The Whole Truth 1.5
Lone Star 1.3

Friday premieres = 1.25 * A18-49
CW premieres = 1.5 * W18-34

WEEK TWO (tiers worth 2, 1, 0 points)
Raising Hope even
Harry's Law -5% 
Mike & Molly -5%
Hawaii Five-0 -8%
Chase -9%
Detroit 1-8-7 -9%
Off the Map -9%
Blue Bloods-9%
Better with You -12%

The Defenders -14%
No Ordinary Family -16%
The Chicago Code -17%
Nikita -17%
$#*! My Dad Says -18%
Hellcats -19%
Perfect Couples -19%
The Event -19%
The Whole Truth -20%

Running Wilde -21%
Outsourced -22%
Lone Star -23%
Undercovers -24%
Law & Order: Los Angeles -25%
The Cape -31% 
My Generation -31%
Bob's Burgers -44%
Outlaw -52%

EXCELLENT (5-6 points): Hawaii Five-0, Mike & Molly (6 points), The Event, $#*! My Dad Says, No Ordinary Family, Hellcats (5 points)
BORDERLINE (3-4 points): Law & Order: Los Angeles, Outsourced, Raising Hope, Blue Bloods, Bob's Burgers, Off the Map, Better with You (4 points), The Defenders, Nikita, The Chicago Code (3 points)
IN TROUBLE (0-2 points): Detroit 1-8-7, Chase, The Cape, Running Wilde, Harry's Law (2 points), The Whole Truth, Perfect Couples (1 point), Outlaw, Undercovers, My Generation, Lone Star (0 points)

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